Good. Hope this gets sorted faster and smoother than Gaza.
Submission statement?
This is a big deal.
It isn’t simply a case of someone else replacing him, Nasrallah wasn’t just a military commander, but a savvy politician and charismatic strongman that was the face of Hezbollah. Hezbollah will live to fight another day, but this is a massive hit to their political power in Lebanon. And if Israel and the west are smart enough, they could exploit that to pull Lebanon out of the Iranian sphere.
The events of the past 2 weeks present a unique opportunity, having shattered the reputation of Hezbollah as the only Arab force capable of standing up to Israel. Without Hezbollah seeming like a capable player, support for war in Lebanon has seemingly dropped direly.
Israel is posed to engage in a ground invasion of Southern Lebanon to finish the job, but this presents a difficult gambit, as while they might be able to exploit this momentum to entirely overwhelm Hezbollah militarily, a ground war might end up becoming a slugfest, giving Hezbollah a chance to ressurge.
While Israel seems to lean towards that direction, this momentum could otherwise be exploited by other western leaders politically, by presenting a similar gambit for the Lebanese opposition. Unite against Hezbollah, take back political power, and get a ceasefire. Their reputation could rise from being able to prevent a devestating war, and some uneasy return to 1701 could be achieved, depending on how much Hezbollah is isolated both militarily and politicaly.
I’ve seen some people suggest Lebanon even joining the Abraham Accords, but I don’t think that likely, nor do I think that’s necessary. I would like to believe that Israel could be satisfied even if the Lebanese Army takes control of the south rather than the UN, and the two sign a permanent ceasefire. I doubt the Lebanese are ready for peace with Israel now, as they still have many rightful grievances against the Israelis from decades of conflict.
Yet either way, the result would be the same- the removal of one of Iran’s main proxies from the axis. I doubt Hezbollah could be entirely eliminated, but if they are isolated, that significantly isolates Hamas too, perhaps raising the chance of a ceasefire in Gaza- allowing for the finalization a of the Abraham Accords with a normalization of tied with Saudi Arabia.
We’ve seen the stick, it’s time for the carrot. There’s a rare opportunity here for a diplomatic solution, but getting it through would be like threading a thin line. Any wrong move and Hezbollah may come back, or worse the entire region could collapse into regional war.
Is hezbollah likely to release their rocket stockpile and overwhelm the iron dome or are they too weak and broken to do anything currently ?
If so, it’s crazy how big of a paper tiger they were, I always expected a war with them to be brutal and tough but looks like they went from 100 to 10% in a week !
Big news
YEEESSSS
Rip bozo. Smoking james worthy pack. Rest in p
Sinwar, where are you? Poke your head out of your hole for just one second…
Insane how fast the entire trajectory of this conflict has shifted. Just a month back most news about the region was about how difficult the conflict with lebanon would be for Israel, how well armed Hezbollah was, and now in just a week, a fair chunk of their rocket and artillery force has been destroyed, and most of Hezbollah’s leadership has been injured or killed in insanely accurate targeted strikes, along with their top man. I kinda understand why Israel’s enemies are so paranoid.
9 comments
Good. Hope this gets sorted faster and smoother than Gaza.
Submission statement?
This is a big deal.
It isn’t simply a case of someone else replacing him, Nasrallah wasn’t just a military commander, but a savvy politician and charismatic strongman that was the face of Hezbollah. Hezbollah will live to fight another day, but this is a massive hit to their political power in Lebanon. And if Israel and the west are smart enough, they could exploit that to pull Lebanon out of the Iranian sphere.
The events of the past 2 weeks present a unique opportunity, having shattered the reputation of Hezbollah as the only Arab force capable of standing up to Israel.
Without Hezbollah seeming like a capable player, support for war in Lebanon has seemingly dropped direly.
Israel is posed to engage in a ground invasion of Southern Lebanon to finish the job, but this presents a difficult gambit, as while they might be able to exploit this momentum to entirely overwhelm Hezbollah militarily, a ground war might end up becoming a slugfest, giving Hezbollah a chance to ressurge.
While Israel seems to lean towards that direction, this momentum could otherwise be exploited by other western leaders politically, by presenting a similar gambit for the Lebanese opposition.
Unite against Hezbollah, take back political power, and get a ceasefire. Their reputation could rise from being able to prevent a devestating war, and some uneasy return to 1701 could be achieved, depending on how much Hezbollah is isolated both militarily and politicaly.
I’ve seen some people suggest Lebanon even joining the Abraham Accords, but I don’t think that likely, nor do I think that’s necessary.
I would like to believe that Israel could be satisfied even if the Lebanese Army takes control of the south rather than the UN, and the two sign a permanent ceasefire. I doubt the Lebanese are ready for peace with Israel now, as they still have many rightful grievances against the Israelis from decades of conflict.
Yet either way, the result would be the same- the removal of one of Iran’s main proxies from the axis. I doubt Hezbollah could be entirely eliminated, but if they are isolated, that significantly isolates Hamas too, perhaps raising the chance of a ceasefire in Gaza- allowing for the finalization a of the Abraham Accords with a normalization of tied with Saudi Arabia.
We’ve seen the stick, it’s time for the carrot.
There’s a rare opportunity here for a diplomatic solution, but getting it through would be like threading a thin line. Any wrong move and Hezbollah may come back, or worse the entire region could collapse into regional war.
Is hezbollah likely to release their rocket stockpile and overwhelm the iron dome or are they too weak and broken to do anything currently ?
If so, it’s crazy how big of a paper tiger they were, I always expected a war with them to be brutal and tough but looks like they went from 100 to 10% in a week !
Big news
YEEESSSS
Rip bozo. Smoking james worthy pack. Rest in p
Sinwar, where are you? Poke your head out of your hole for just one second…
Insane how fast the entire trajectory of this conflict has shifted. Just a month back most news about the region was about how difficult the conflict with lebanon would be for Israel, how well armed Hezbollah was, and now in just a week, a fair chunk of their rocket and artillery force has been destroyed, and most of Hezbollah’s leadership has been injured or killed in insanely accurate targeted strikes, along with their top man. I kinda understand why Israel’s enemies are so paranoid.