Vuhledar seizure unlikely to significantly alter Russia’s operations in Donetsk Oblast – ISW



Vuhledar seizure unlikely to significantly alter Russia’s operations in Donetsk Oblast – ISW

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/10/2/7477719/

by jonfla

13 comments
  1. That flies in the face of everything I’ve heard from the Russian shills. So much so that I actually believed it.

    But far more qualified people are saying it isn’t important now….

    So confusing.

  2. More on this subject from other reputable sources:


    – Al Jazeera (C+): [Russia captures key town of Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/2/russia-reportedly-captures-key-town-of-vuhledar-in-eastern-ukraine)
    – tagesschau.de (A): [What the fall of Wuhledar means for Ukraine](https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ukraine-wuhledar-104.html)
    – DW-TV (B+): [Ukraine pulls troops from Vuhledar as Russia advances](https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-pulls-troops-from-vuhledar-as-russia-advances/live-70384175)
    – CNN.com (C+): [Russia captures key eastern Ukrainian town, exposing Kyiv’s critical vulnerabilities](https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/02/europe/vuhledar-russia-ukraine-war-capture-intl/)


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  3. August 2024: „Vuhledar is a key strategic town“

    October 2024: „Nah, it does not matter much“

  4. I love how it was a “key strategic location”… until it was taken. Now it’s unimportant. Do you people listen to yourselves?

  5. I mean, it makes a Ukrainian offensive in that area (i.e. anywhere in the direction of Volnovakha and Mariupol) significantly more difficult. Not that that was in the cards anyway, but still

    It was a major strategic town, similar to Avdiivka. We can only hope that another post-Avdiivka collapse doesn’t happen here, too.

  6. For two relentless years, they have steadily seized this modest settlement and while Russia is expanding its territory, the price is pointledd as countless lives are lost and blood is spilled in an orgy of senseless hate. The land demands its pound of flesh, and the air thickens with the cries of the damned, as if the angels of wrath bear witness to humanity’s final fall. Fuck that shit.

  7. It took Russia two plus years to take the small city. I am sure many contingencies have been planned over the large span of time.

  8. I don’t think the plan is to hold every mile of the Donbas. I suspect the plan is to make the war unsustainable for Russia, then offer a peace deal that includes return of land for lifting sanctions

    Ukraine likely needs Russia to relinquish the taken land, and Russia needs an end to sanctions to prevent economic collapse. Ukraine is trading space for time. It is painful to watch, but it is their best option.

  9. I don’t think anyone should spin this into being “it’s good for Ukraine because Russia paid a massive cost”.

    Because it’s better for them to keep paying a massive cost, and also be losing rather then gaining territory.

    That being said. It took two years to take it. And while
    taking it Ukraine took a nice large chunk of russian territory.

    Really nothing is going to happen on the Russian side until they see if their man gets back on the white house

  10. I wish Ukraine would get better at recognising when to retreat. This was another chaotic retreat , at least for some units, with soldiers getting cut off, left behind, and having to retreat on foot during the night. It’s frustrating knowing there were hardened, experienced soldiers getting killed on their way out at the last minute instead of living to fight another day.

  11. I honestly think Ukraine is just trading space for 2025. Russia is making gains in 2024 because Ukraine punched themselves out during 2022/2023 counter offensive operations (with 2023 being a failure leading partially to equipment/ ammo shortages).

    At the rate Russia is burning through equipment, if Ukraine is able to properly arm and conduct combined arms manoeuvrers with their new aircraft and long range weapons, I think 2025 will be the determining year of the war.

    Russia isn’t the Soviet union, they simply don’t have enough equipment to fight this war for another 2 years. Even if they magically marched on Kiev now and took all of Ukraine, they still don’t have the recourses to fight a prolonged Ukrainian insurgency.

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