[Abbas Milani](https://www.hoover.org/profiles/abbas-milani) considers the current state of Israel-Iran hostilities and stresses the danger of this situation for all those in the region. Finding that neither party at present can back down fully, Milani calls for a more determined US strategy to effect long-term corrective changes to the region.
Spelling this out, Milani suggests that “the only real solution is a democratic Iran. Neither the Israeli nor the US military can bring about that outcome, but the Iranian people can, and they have grown increasingly determined in recent years.”
For Israel, “Any prolonged conflict would stretch Israel’s resources and possibly lead to massive casualties. It is difficult to anticipate what impact a costly war would have on his already deeply divided government. Netanyahu has oriented his political legacy around blocking Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, yet he might unwittingly hasten the very outcome he fears most.”
Meanwhile, “Iran’s ruling clerics find themselves in a difficult position. Longstanding international sanctions and the regime’s own corrupt cronyism have taken a toll on the economy, leading to widespread discontent and simmering political unrest. Ordinary Iranians, often led by women, are defiantly demanding equality, freedom, and living conditions commensurate with the country’s abundant natural and human capital.”
On the nuclear front, “The regime claims that it is bound by a fatwa from Khamenei not to seek weapons of mass destruction, and it has always maintained that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes. Yet many of the same figures who have repeated these talking points now say that every piece of the puzzle for a bomb is in place.”
So what can be done? In Milani’s view, “the rest of the world must confront and contain the regime’s egregious behavior, while doing what it can to support Iranians’ democratic aspirations.”
How do you think the US, Israel, and its allies can advance the latter goal?
Clearly the nuclear facilities must be destroyed. Only with US support can this be successful. It seems unlikely to be accomplished prior to the election in early November. An Israeli strike before then on the vulnerable facilities could force the administration’s hand, or hasten the IRGC’s efforts to complete the bomb. The question is whether the administration is willing to act after the November election in the lame duck window.
2 comments
[Abbas Milani](https://www.hoover.org/profiles/abbas-milani) considers the current state of Israel-Iran hostilities and stresses the danger of this situation for all those in the region. Finding that neither party at present can back down fully, Milani calls for a more determined US strategy to effect long-term corrective changes to the region.
Spelling this out, Milani suggests that “the only real solution is a democratic Iran. Neither the Israeli nor the US military can bring about that outcome, but the Iranian people can, and they have grown increasingly determined in recent years.”
For Israel, “Any prolonged conflict would stretch Israel’s resources and possibly lead to massive casualties. It is difficult to anticipate what impact a costly war would have on his already deeply divided government. Netanyahu has oriented his political legacy around blocking Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, yet he might unwittingly hasten the very outcome he fears most.”
Meanwhile, “Iran’s ruling clerics find themselves in a difficult position. Longstanding international sanctions and the regime’s own corrupt cronyism have taken a toll on the economy, leading to widespread discontent and simmering political unrest. Ordinary Iranians, often led by women, are defiantly demanding equality, freedom, and living conditions commensurate with the country’s abundant natural and human capital.”
On the nuclear front, “The regime claims that it is bound by a fatwa from Khamenei not to seek weapons of mass destruction, and it has always maintained that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes. Yet many of the same figures who have repeated these talking points now say that every piece of the puzzle for a bomb is in place.”
Milani joins others in noting that, “A [rush to complete the bomb](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/09/30/iran-could-race-for-the-bomb-after-the-decapitation-of-hizbullah) would almost certainly provoke Israel – and perhaps the US – to launch preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, and this would almost certainly trigger a wider conflict.”
So what can be done? In Milani’s view, “the rest of the world must confront and contain the regime’s egregious behavior, while doing what it can to support Iranians’ democratic aspirations.”
How do you think the US, Israel, and its allies can advance the latter goal?
Clearly the nuclear facilities must be destroyed. Only with US support can this be successful. It seems unlikely to be accomplished prior to the election in early November. An Israeli strike before then on the vulnerable facilities could force the administration’s hand, or hasten the IRGC’s efforts to complete the bomb. The question is whether the administration is willing to act after the November election in the lame duck window.