The Sunshine State rode a post-pandemic growth wave to surpass New York as the country’s third-most populous state, and has four of the country’s five fastest-growing metro areas—including Cape Coral–Fort Myers, which Hurricane Ian slammed in 2022, producing the third-most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history. Will Florida’s lifestyle migrants decide they would rather live on higher ground? “[The Great Florida Migration Is Coming Undone](https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/florida-home-sales-slowing-355616a2),” warns the Wall Street Journal.
Fat chance. To the extent that these storms will push anyone from Florida, it will not be people with the means to go, but people without the means to stay. This phenomenon—sometimes called “climate gentrification”—cuts against one popular idea of climate migration, in which wealthier households move to more secure locations and leave the poor to face extreme weather.
IF we assume that the disasters are infrequent enough that Florida remains a functional, fun place to be, this is true:
* rich person buys vacation home, with insurance * hurricane * rich person is living at one of their other homes * hires someone to repair house with insurance proceeds * when house is repaired, the area is also repaired (cafes, beaches, electricity, water service, whatever made it desirable in the first place, all magically repaired) * rich person can now visit again, having suffered minimal inconvenience
But if the area stays trashed, if insurance can’t be obtained, or similar problems, then this system no longer works. Rich guy won’t visit without electricity, won’t visit if none of the cafes have been rebuilt, etc. Once the damage passes a certain point, it’s no longer a fun vacation spot. And then the wealthy abandon it.
The city on Maui which had a wildfire run through it will be the same. For this first wildfire, it’ll get rebuilt by rich people, because Maui is fun. But if the problems exceed the area’s capacity to repair, then it’s not fun any more, and the rich will abandon it and suddenly it’ll be nothing but climate refugees.
They have better sea walls…
What about all the service workers they’ll need?
If would depend on frequency and strength of hurricanes. I would think pass a certain threshold few people rich or poor would choose to live in Florida.
To quote the guy who owns the Mar-a-Lago.
“It’ll open up more beach front property”
The rich will be the last to leave, because they can afford to take the risks and rebuild without insurance.
“Sir, your $20 M beach house has been destroyed”
“Which one?”
I’m waiting for banks to stop providing loans to buy houses in Florida. In 30 years I don’t think there will be much in terms of habitable areas in Florida.
Gotta love greedy landlords and the commodification of basic human needs. Ain’t capitalism grand?
Yeah, but you know what one thing rich people can’t live without? Workers. Rich folk simply can’t manage on their own. Most of them can’t cook a meal, change a tire, or compose an email. And the workers will be forced to leave because of hurricanes sooner rather than later.
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It has been two weeks since the Tampa Bay area experienced what the Tampa Bay Times called its “[worst hurricane in a century](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article293362924.html),” when Hurricane Helene made landfall up the Florida coast. With Hurricane Milton spinning east, Florida’s Gulf Coast is about to see “[the most serious weather situation](https://slate.com/business/2024/10/hurricane-milton-tracker-path-florida-weather.html)” of the last century. Again.
The Sunshine State rode a post-pandemic growth wave to surpass New York as the country’s third-most populous state, and has four of the country’s five fastest-growing metro areas—including Cape Coral–Fort Myers, which Hurricane Ian slammed in 2022, producing the third-most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history. Will Florida’s lifestyle migrants decide they would rather live on higher ground? “[The Great Florida Migration Is Coming Undone](https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/florida-home-sales-slowing-355616a2),” warns the Wall Street Journal.
Fat chance. To the extent that these storms will push anyone from Florida, it will not be people with the means to go, but people without the means to stay. This phenomenon—sometimes called “climate gentrification”—cuts against one popular idea of climate migration, in which wealthier households move to more secure locations and leave the poor to face extreme weather.
For more on how climate migration doesn’t work the way you expect: [https://slate.com/business/2024/10/hurricane-milton-florida-wealthy-homeowners-stay-climate-migration.html](https://slate.com/business/2024/10/hurricane-milton-florida-wealthy-homeowners-stay-climate-migration.html)
IF we assume that the disasters are infrequent enough that Florida remains a functional, fun place to be, this is true:
* rich person buys vacation home, with insurance
* hurricane
* rich person is living at one of their other homes
* hires someone to repair house with insurance proceeds
* when house is repaired, the area is also repaired (cafes, beaches, electricity, water service, whatever made it desirable in the first place, all magically repaired)
* rich person can now visit again, having suffered minimal inconvenience
But if the area stays trashed, if insurance can’t be obtained, or similar problems, then this system no longer works. Rich guy won’t visit without electricity, won’t visit if none of the cafes have been rebuilt, etc. Once the damage passes a certain point, it’s no longer a fun vacation spot. And then the wealthy abandon it.
The city on Maui which had a wildfire run through it will be the same. For this first wildfire, it’ll get rebuilt by rich people, because Maui is fun. But if the problems exceed the area’s capacity to repair, then it’s not fun any more, and the rich will abandon it and suddenly it’ll be nothing but climate refugees.
They have better sea walls…
What about all the service workers they’ll need?
If would depend on frequency and strength of hurricanes. I would think pass a certain threshold few people rich or poor would choose to live in Florida.
To quote the guy who owns the Mar-a-Lago.
“It’ll open up more beach front property”
The rich will be the last to leave, because they can afford to take the risks and rebuild without insurance.
“Sir, your $20 M beach house has been destroyed”
“Which one?”
I’m waiting for banks to stop providing loans to buy houses in Florida. In 30 years I don’t think there will be much in terms of habitable areas in Florida.
Gotta love greedy landlords and the commodification of basic human needs. Ain’t capitalism grand?
Yeah, but you know what one thing rich people can’t live without? Workers. Rich folk simply can’t manage on their own. Most of them can’t cook a meal, change a tire, or compose an email. And the workers will be forced to leave because of hurricanes sooner rather than later.