Why hasn’t North Africa being More Geopolitically Powerful in the 21st Century?

3 comments

1. Because there is no “north african” political union nor will to make it happen and those countries are all relatively poorer

2. Let’s entertain that North Africa – Gulf comparison for a sec., comparing Algeria and Qatar. Algeria (pop. 45m; value of petroleum gas exports in 2022, $27.4b). Qatar (pop. some 300,000 Qatari citizens excluding expats; value of petroleum gas exports in 2022, $67b). You see where this is going.

   Talking about Algeria more specifically, the country remains quite closed-off to this day, which affects its economic performance. There is very little dynamism in the economy, and it’s very difficult to get anything done without wasta. It is *very* reliant on the export of hydrocarbons. And the elites, Le Pouvoir, are quite extractive.

   Some of those challenges also apply to Morocco, but I think the country is in a better position moving forward. It is much more integrated within global markets (including the EU), it has more valuable partnerships (including the US), and its economy is much more resilient and diversified (logistics, manufacturing, food production, tourism, exports of raw materials, etc.).

3. They’re all basically food insecure. Pretty hard to build geopolitical power when you’re basically reliant on importing so much of something as basic as food for your population. The level of industrialization is low. The level of education is low. Most of their populations are squeezed to the coast and even then, not a lot of fresh water.

   Libya is a complete mess. Egypt always appears one step away from economic and civic turmoil. Tunisia is too small. Morocco is doing OK (lower middle income more or less). Algeria has a fair amount of oil but also a pretty large population (lower-middle income country).