NYT released this rather interesting report yesterday, reporting on the minutes of secret Hamas meetings leading up to the October 7 attack, that were taken from a computer in the tunnels under Khan Younis in January of this year. NYT verified them with independent experts with insight into Hamas, indicating that they are genuine.
Some key takeaways are that the attack seems to have been planned at least since 2021, and that Yahya Sinwar was the mastermind. Hamas successfully avoided responding to what they saw as Israeli provocations in order to give the image that they were successfully deterred, in preparation for this attack. The goal of it was to strike a significant blow at Israel, hopefully start a wider regional war with the help if Iran and Hezbollah, and also to derail Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia. Iranian and Hezbollah officials were notified of the plans, although its unclear how much specifics they knew, and its also unclear whether Hassan Nasrallah was informed in person. They did not commit to help, although they were supportive in principle, but Hamas was determined to carry it out with or without them, with the development of new Israeli air defenses giving a tight deadline.
Further, the unstable political situation surrounding the judicial reform and Netanyahu’s crisis was considered to provide an expedient opportunity for the attack, as it might hinder Israel’s ability to respond. The rise of the far-right government in December 2022, and specifically Itamar Ben-Gvir’s provocations, was considered to be helpful, as it might help alienate Israel internationally and create support for a wider war.
All in all, in my view it sounds like these documents are genuine, and it gives a very valuable and unprecedented view into Hamas’ planning and intentions behind the attack.
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Submission Statement:
NYT released this rather interesting report yesterday, reporting on the minutes of secret Hamas meetings leading up to the October 7 attack, that were taken from a computer in the tunnels under Khan Younis in January of this year. NYT verified them with independent experts with insight into Hamas, indicating that they are genuine.
Some key takeaways are that the attack seems to have been planned at least since 2021, and that Yahya Sinwar was the mastermind. Hamas successfully avoided responding to what they saw as Israeli provocations in order to give the image that they were successfully deterred, in preparation for this attack. The goal of it was to strike a significant blow at Israel, hopefully start a wider regional war with the help if Iran and Hezbollah, and also to derail Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia. Iranian and Hezbollah officials were notified of the plans, although its unclear how much specifics they knew, and its also unclear whether Hassan Nasrallah was informed in person. They did not commit to help, although they were supportive in principle, but Hamas was determined to carry it out with or without them, with the development of new Israeli air defenses giving a tight deadline.
Further, the unstable political situation surrounding the judicial reform and Netanyahu’s crisis was considered to provide an expedient opportunity for the attack, as it might hinder Israel’s ability to respond. The rise of the far-right government in December 2022, and specifically Itamar Ben-Gvir’s provocations, was considered to be helpful, as it might help alienate Israel internationally and create support for a wider war.
All in all, in my view it sounds like these documents are genuine, and it gives a very valuable and unprecedented view into Hamas’ planning and intentions behind the attack.