“I’ll say what many might think but hesitate to voice: Ukraine is currently losing the war, and the trend is negative unless drastic measures are taken.” [Thread, from a former Ukrainian officer]

13 comments

1. >I’ll say what many might think but hesitate to voice: Ukraine is currently losing the war, and the trend is negative unless drastic measures are taken.

   >Debates over what constitutes loss or victory can be had, and yes, Ukraine’s survival so far is a big win. But even if Russia halts advances and goes on the defensive, we lack the resources to reclaim territories to the 2022 borders, let alone the 1991 borders. This is due to many factors: delayed mobilization, insufficient aid, weak sanctions enforcement, a lack of political will in the West, poor military decisions, delayed aid due to de-escalation concerns, and the sheer reality of fighting a country with four times our population, with superior numbers in almost all domains and one of the largest military industries, supported by regimes like North Korea, which contribute more than some European countries with far larger GDPs.

   >Manpower shortages are another issue, but that’s a separate discussion. Ukrainian leadership bears a good part of the responsibility for these problems. Still, if the West can’t supply the 14 brigades Zelensky requested, why discuss drafting hundreds of thousands more? We need to completely re-arm way more existing brigades. Who’s going to pay for them? Let’s be honest – there’s little enthusiasm in the U.S. or Europe to fund this.

   >If Russia retains its occupied territories, it will undermine one of Europe’s core security principles: that borders cannot be redrawn by invading force. In 2014, Russia violated this order, leading to the 2022 invasion. This time, it’s not just Ukraine that will have failed – it’s Ukraine, the U.S., and Western Europe’s failure to defeat Russia.

   >Some might cite Finland’s Winter War, as an example of what Ukraine should have done, but that war lasted three months and ended with Finland ceding territory, paying reparations in the form of machinery, and renting a port to the Soviets. Ukraine’s demographics today are also very different: the 18-25 age group is among the smallest, a reality across modern Europe.

   >Unless Ukraine and the West create a serious plan to radically increase aid to support mobilization – where Ukraine commits to mobilizing more people on the condition that they are properly armed and trained, and the West provides robust air defense to intercept missiles as decisively as the U.S. does for Israel – Ukraine will lose the war of attrition. This will force unfavorable peace, and mass migration from Ukraine to other countries, setting a dangerous precedent, and making it look like the West lost to Russia in the eyes of the world, especially among the enemies of the West

2. * Ukraine is losing ground in the east
   * Kursk incursion is now being pushed back.
   * Ukraine is losing men and finding it hard to recruit.
   * Russia is losing a lot of men and also recruiting challenged, but ultimately has a larger population to draw from
   * Their economy is in the toilet.
   * They will start to run out of weapons/materiel at some point in the short term
   * *Overall, Russia is winning, but they are paying a big price for it, and they can’t sustain the current pace. Their economy will start to suffer at some point.*

3. Is it Tataragami? If so, he’s been saying this stuff for 2 years now. He’s a famous storm crow. Not everything he says is wrong, but he’s very focused on saying everything is shit. He was particularly negative on the whole Kursk thing, but I would argue it’s pulled Russia away from the Donbas. Tataragami is famous for predicting the loss of Pokrovsk by September as well.

   The US has to get off its ass and send another 500 Bradley’s rather than hummers and Ukraine is going to need to inch conscription down from 25 (but not to 18) . And Russia finally is running out of a lot of categories of equipment, though here always seems to be another scrap heap of APCs and WWII artillery.

4. Obviously this ukrainian officer is paid for by Putler i dont know why you have to post putler propaganda shit here

5. Almost like we are in a war of attrition. Wars such as these aren’t won with territory, but the will and capacity to keep fighting. This is why Russia likes to occasionally ‘sue for peace’ on rough contact lines despite the casus belli for the war being erasing Ukraine as a whole.

   Now, we can argue if Ukraine will lose the will and capacity in the war first, and we can definitely agree that the US in particular needs to enable Ukraine to win rather than just not lose, but focusing on territory at this point is counter productive in the highest.

6. I’d say it looks like they are both losing, but Ukraine is losing faster, but not by much.
   With the demographic issues both countries have had even before this,the future for both looks bleak no matter the outcome of the war 😞

7. I hate to say this but even with a Harris win and a more expansive approach to the US militarily assisting Ukraine, eventually other countries are going to have to enter the fray against Russia.

   If Ukraine falls, it will only be a matter of time before Russia is on the march again in Poland, Lithuania etc. Everyone knows this. So the only answer is regime change in Russia and that means other countries getting directly militarily involved.

   When this started in 2022 I told a friend of mine that WWIII just started, its just a question of whether everyone accepts it. NATO has been in denial about this and has tried very hard to avoid it. Meanwhile so many innocents have died and so many resources are gone as they hesitate. This just can’t continue on, something’s gotta give, and that something is coming whether NATO prefers it or not. Save Ukraine. Save Europe. Destroy the Putin regime. You can’t have any of these without the others.

8. I’m not sure it’s fair to say one is losing and the other is not. In a war of attrition, both sides are losing by definition. 

   I think Ukraine has a distinct disadvantage at this point with lack of weapons and other equipment. Given the state of Ukraine, it does depend on allies to supply sufficient materiel and we aren’t seeing enough deliveries. If supplies resume, we could still see difficulties in procuring and training sufficient troops. 

   OTOH, Putin has to prosecute the invasion within the constraints of the social contract that regular Russians not lose their accustomed standard of living provided they don’t interfere with the regime. The economy gets into serious trouble,  another mobilization, or other negative effects on the population could throw a serious monkey wrench into the war machine. 

   Overall, I think the main concern is sufficient supply for Ukraine. I believe Ukraine could mobilize as many men as the west will ever provide equipment for. Whether this will be enough to outlast Putin’s ability to throw bodies and refurbished rust buckets at is unknown by all. 

9. About a week ago or two, Ukrainian air defense suddenly got much worse, dropping from 90-100% success rate to less than 50%. I finally saw it mentioned in an article last night but it was in half sleep and now I don’t remember the reason, duh. In today’s report they shot down 51 of 136 drones. If the other 85 reached their goal and exploded, that would be absolutely fucked up. At the same time I read reports of drones “returning to Russia” or getting “lost” and I don’t read about 85 explosions. Still wonder what’s up there, doesn’t sound good though.

   It’s possible they previously counted “missing” drones as destroyed and now changed their counting method… no clue. >_>

10. This view is great if it rattles the western politicians too nervous about moving to a focused war effort than a public reaction to it…

11. Ukraine is currently losing territory, personnel and equipment. Russia is also losing personnel and equipment.

    What’s important is, who can keep the losses up the longest.

    So far Russia has had a distinct advantage in the amount of manpower and equipment they can field.

    And while they seemingly keep finding more people, they are feeling the impact of equipment losses.

    Anders Puch Nielsen made a video, where he explains how he doesn’t believe Russia can produce enough new equipment.
    The important part there is the word “new”. Russia had relied on old stocks, and those are running dry.

    My point here is, that while Ukraine is currently losing, so is Russia, and I certainly wouldn’t count Ukraine out, as the western arms industry is slowly increasing production.

12. I don’t think either side are winning but the problem is the situation is continuing to deteriorate for Ukraine and it doesn’t have a clear pathway for victory right now as Russia is prepared to accept horrendous losses to inflict damage and take small amounts of territory.

    The west will give enough support to keep Ukraine afloat and competitive but not enough to turn the tide, so a slow war of attrition continues with the west logic being that Russia will eventually run out of steam and bring an orderly end to the war without risking chaos in Russia or nuclear escalation in Ukraine. It’s cynical but plays to the selfish interests of politicians in the west.

    Ukraine though could do more to help itself. I don’t agree with a situation wherein this war is an existential threat and that existing Ukrainian brigades have man power shortages contributing to loss of territory and higher casualties but at the same time you’re not willing to mobilise fully and put in your most physically capable age groups into the fight.

    I understand the demographic concerns but that’s a tomorrow problem and Ukraine has a higher pressing today problem that should have priority. In every other major European war, the total male population was mobilized and yes it had negative impacts long term but at least countries like UK and France are still around and independent whereas If Ukraine loses it will have no path forward other then as a Russian controlled vassal.

13. Not sure if you can call that losing, tbh. Ukraine is finding better ways to hurt Russia basically every day, is far more flexible, has (even when too slow) support from the west. Even if they continue losing parts of their land, we have seen how impressively fast they can (re)conquer territory.