I’ve been looking at 538’s modeling. If you scroll to the scatter plot democrats need something like 53% nationally to win the white house in every case.
Let’s keep this chart going and continue watching how Dems get repeatedly unfavorably treated by the electoral college. Much harder for a democrat to be elected president than a republican
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Interesting, shows how odd the Trump/Hilary race was. It also shows how popular Democrats have been in general with only Kerry being the outlier. More Importantly it shows the effect of gerrymandering and vote strength bias built into the election system, in average requiring a 2% popularity lead to offset the bias. However, the Trump/Clinton race shows this offset can exceed that quite significantly. For that race, Hillary would likely have needed nor than a 10% popular lead just to get to 50:50 on electoral. That election seems statistically improbable, but it’s mostly the stack up of small biases county to county, state to state, and the specific state win: lose mix that forced one of the most extreme total biases against Hilary that might be possible in a modem election. Against the average, she should have has a 4% electoral lead even with the 2% bias against her. She was a solid 15% down from where she should have been.
The fact the popular vote has consistently been within 5% of the middle Since 2000 is *wild* to me.
I never realized how much better hillary did in a popular compared to gore, that’s honestly crazy to see how much 16 years changed
Let’s remember that gore actually got more of the electoral vote as well but Florida decided to just not count those votes instead so that way bush would win.
It’s always crazy to remember that Republicans have won the popular vote once in my life and yet I’ve lived through 4 Republican terms
I ran a little back of the envelope calculation based on the 2020 election results. If you took the voter turnout as it was back then, and then took 50.1% of the votes of the states with the least number of votes needed to get one Electoral College vote, then theoretically (and realise this would never happen in practice) get a majority of EC votes with just 22% of the popular vote.
An extreme and completely unrealistic calculation, but I do think the whole EC system is absurd and antiquated.
A really cool visualization would be to somehow chart how many votes are needed to flip the electoral college for the opponent. (Probably could normalize it with the number of electoral vollege seats that change) I have a feeling it is just getting closer and closer now.
So the absolute only time in the past quarter century that a Republican has won the popular vote was after a Republican stole the election via Florida then 1 year later thrust us into a quarter century war, and had popular support because he riled people up to go to war.
Fucking geniuses y’all are.
The 2000 election has absolutely fucked this country more than people seem to talk about.
Popular vote percentages are incorrect. HRC only received 48.18% of the popular vote just as one example. This chart is nothing but propaganda.
God I hate the electoral college. I understand it’s original purpose, but it really has just turned into “Hey, let’s just have the same 5 states determine the president from now on…”
I never understand these graphics. The goal is not to win popular vote. And the outcome in many states are forgone conclusions, meaning people there do not bother voting anyways. This holds no value to me.
I’d like to see this data starting from, say, 1960.
I don’t understand why people aren’t marching in the streets to get rid of the Electoral College. (maybe because it sounds too abstract?) this is not democracy!
The red and blue points are just reflected across the y=x axis, so there is no need to show both. People might be interested in the ratio quantity and then you could graph over time with more data points to also bring in that dimensions and provide more context to modern events.
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Source: [Historical Presidential Election Map Timeline – 270toWin](https://www.270towin.com/historical-presidential-elections/timeline/)
Chart: Excel
Electoral College: DEI for red states.
Republican + Democrat definitely doesn’t equal 100%
I’ve been looking at 538’s modeling. If you scroll to the scatter plot democrats need something like 53% nationally to win the white house in every case.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Let’s keep this chart going and continue watching how Dems get repeatedly unfavorably treated by the electoral college. Much harder for a democrat to be elected president than a republican
[removed]
Interesting, shows how odd the Trump/Hilary race was. It also shows how popular Democrats have been in general with only Kerry being the outlier. More Importantly it shows the effect of gerrymandering and vote strength bias built into the election system, in average requiring a 2% popularity lead to offset the bias. However, the Trump/Clinton race shows this offset can exceed that quite significantly. For that race, Hillary would likely have needed nor than a 10% popular lead just to get to 50:50 on electoral. That election seems statistically improbable, but it’s mostly the stack up of small biases county to county, state to state, and the specific state win: lose mix that forced one of the most extreme total biases against Hilary that might be possible in a modem election. Against the average, she should have has a 4% electoral lead even with the 2% bias against her. She was a solid 15% down from where she should have been.
The fact the popular vote has consistently been within 5% of the middle Since 2000 is *wild* to me.
I never realized how much better hillary did in a popular compared to gore, that’s honestly crazy to see how much 16 years changed
Let’s remember that gore actually got more of the electoral vote as well but Florida decided to just not count those votes instead so that way bush would win.
It’s always crazy to remember that Republicans have won the popular vote once in my life and yet I’ve lived through 4 Republican terms
I ran a little back of the envelope calculation based on the 2020 election results. If you took the voter turnout as it was back then, and then took 50.1% of the votes of the states with the least number of votes needed to get one Electoral College vote, then theoretically (and realise this would never happen in practice) get a majority of EC votes with just 22% of the popular vote.
An extreme and completely unrealistic calculation, but I do think the whole EC system is absurd and antiquated.
A really cool visualization would be to somehow chart how many votes are needed to flip the electoral college for the opponent. (Probably could normalize it with the number of electoral vollege seats that change) I have a feeling it is just getting closer and closer now.
So the absolute only time in the past quarter century that a Republican has won the popular vote was after a Republican stole the election via Florida then 1 year later thrust us into a quarter century war, and had popular support because he riled people up to go to war.
Fucking geniuses y’all are.
The 2000 election has absolutely fucked this country more than people seem to talk about.
Popular vote percentages are incorrect. HRC only received 48.18% of the popular vote just as one example. This chart is nothing but propaganda.
God I hate the electoral college. I understand it’s original purpose, but it really has just turned into “Hey, let’s just have the same 5 states determine the president from now on…”
I never understand these graphics. The goal is not to win popular vote. And the outcome in many states are forgone conclusions, meaning people there do not bother voting anyways. This holds no value to me.
I’d like to see this data starting from, say, 1960.
I don’t understand why people aren’t marching in the streets to get rid of the Electoral College. (maybe because it sounds too abstract?) this is not democracy!
The red and blue points are just reflected across the y=x axis, so there is no need to show both. People might be interested in the ratio quantity and then you could graph over time with more data points to also bring in that dimensions and provide more context to modern events.
Trump Clinton is crazy. Who stole what you say?
Now do it by actual percentage of all votes.