Could Taiwan Become Next Ukraine? (Part 15)

42 comments

1. it seems you have blocked users who criticized you and had different points of view, david. that seems unprofessional and unwise, don't you think?

2. Peaceful reunification will happen in with 10 years like in 2035 when China will become the largest economy of the world and possibilly having the largest arm forces in the world with advance weapons.

3. As per brian berltic from the "new atlas" YT channel states, on the american government website and the australian government website, they agree on the one china policy, taiwan is NOT a country and is not even on the UN council, however taiwan is pumped full of weapons still by america/west, it has american bases on it (over 900 globally) their children have been brainwashed as fake history has been taught. China will eventually have to make a decision and just go in, because whos gonna kick out the american bases? americans just calmly walk into peoples lands and build bases eg the biggest drone base is in africa, bases in iraq/syria, the americans control the elctions and meddle globally, western media spit out fake news about china and taiwan. There is very low chance china can do this peacefully, taiwan needs to have pressure exerted on it forcefully via china/brics. if you don't believe me look at: russia vs ukraine, north korea vs north korea, china vs taiwan, serbia vs kosovo. These are just a handful of civil wars ORCHESTRATED by cia/pentagon/deepstate, they fracture a country, make you weak and they get an ally by dismantling the nation and make you fight yourself, to this very day who has escaped the american clutches by being passive? gaza sure has, 70yrs occupation, 1st nakba 750k dead, even niger had to do it forcefully

4. unification would be within 10 year

5. Dr O Probowo is today Inauguration As President of Indonesia (20-10-24)👋👋👋

6. If anyone who has any knowledge about the humiliated history of China in the past 200 years, it will be easily to understand that China will never allow Taiwan to become an independent nation, no matter who or which party is in power in mainland China.
   But since DPP, a pro-independent party, came into power in Taiwan in 2000, it took a lot of actions toward independence, esp when Tsai Ing-wen was in power during 2016-2024. Polls show that in the past 8 years, more and more Taiwanese pro independence, the feelings between the people of both sides declined very fast, which provoke more and more mainland Chinese to ask CCP to take more action to against Taiwan . A internet polls in mainland China shows, people who are more young are more willing to support CCP to take military actions. Statistics show, to those who were born before 1970, 60% of them support CCP to take military action when necessary, to those who were born during 1970-1990, 70% of them support CCP to take military actions when necessary, but to those who were born after 1990, more than 80% of them support CCP to take military action as soon as possible. So as the relationship across Taiwan strait becomes more and more tension, CCP is facing more and more internal pressure. And also, as more and more young leaders in mainland China come into power, they are more willing to take military action against Taiwan. So, no matter to politicians in Taiwan or the US government, manipulating the issue of Taiwan’s independence is really very very dangerous. It will be a disaster for Taiwanese, and surely seriously endanger the relationship between China and the US.
   Will China have a deadline to take military action, like around 2027? It is ridiculous to think that. But China is determined to take military action anytime when necessary. This is very sure.

7. In January, Taiwan had elections and 40% voted for the US supporting DPP and 60% voted for closer China relations. The president chatter therefore doesn't reflect the democratic wishes of the Taiwanese majority. Further, unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is a very long way from US allies and can be surrounded by a sea and air cordon sanitaire. Any US ships coming within range of hypersonic missiles can be simply destroyed. Aircraft carriers are sitting ducks and extremely vulnerable.

8. CPC doesn't want Taiwan to reunify with Old China..
   CPC wants Taiwan to reunify with New China..
   That's why CPC is boasting to Taiwan the military, commercial achievements and successes to Taiwan..
   The problem is.. Taiwanese are caught by Western media.. Deceiving them about China..

   That's why CPC is taking it so slow.. As time past.. The truth will reveal.. West media lies will be exposed..

   CPC have already made it clear to Taiwan authorities.. One Country Two Systems.
   Beijing had NEVER set a deadline to Reunification.. That was a LIE spread by West.
   When Xi mentioned 2049 in his speech.. He was clearly referring to Hong Kong and Macao.. That's the date these two become part of China.
   Xi was talking to China.. Not the rest of the world, not to Taiwan.
   Everyone in China knows 2049..Hk and Macao reunify with China.
   West Analysts knew it.. They intentionally deceive to give false impression that Beijing wants to take Taiwan by 2049.

   What young Taiwanese wants is more about Social Culture.. They will only want Reunification if PRC social culture is more similar.. And more freedom based in PRC..

   That will happen.. The young in China are more open, more freedom based..
   In another generation or two.. Reunification will happen..
   CPC understands this.. That's why CPC is not Invading.. Nor even trying much to entice..
   Pretty much leave Taiwan alone (only unless Taiwan Separatist becomes pushy again)

9. I was refering to not much people around Taipei during weekend .

10. No. It war would end within a week.

11. Dr O,
    You will need at least 10 days for your next Beijing Trip as there are so many many interesting places to visit including the Great Wall and then to Tianjin.

12. Anyone know who pull off the fake moon landing in the 60's ???

13. Dr. O, are you forgetting that TSMC is a private company? Their profits are private wealth and only the taxed portion gets translated to infrastructure amongst other things.

14. 25 million. Population of Taiwan in 2024. About 8 million children in education, 8 million senior citizens, and 9 million working adults. These are general human demographics, in an average size country. Two million Taiwanese working in mainland China. This data is reliable. The tax base in Taiwan is little. I am surprised Taiwan can afford F16 F15 Missiles Torpedoes and Warships with this narrow tax base. Besides, the F15 F16 and F22 are flying into the J20 and J35. There is no walkover for the F22 and B21 in the Pacific. The PLA is targetting the refuelling tanker.

15. The US will push the Philippines and Taiwan to be the next Ukraine. The Philippines will be the first to the frontline. Japan, South Korea and Australia may join in , pushed by the US. The US will not be sending troops to fight China, when real war starts with China, they never will, only selling weapons for war. Take heed.

16. hear you clear

17. Most definitely! The U.S. and NATO instigated the war in Ukraine unnecessarily and has been shipping weaponry and military technological training, so of course the U.S. is definitely pushing Taiwan to a physical conflict against China.

18. US is doing whatever it can to make Taiwan to become Ukraine.

19. Over the past 30 years, China has pursued a range of peaceful strategies, goodwill initiatives, and economic incentives in its engagement with Taiwan, including the acceptance of the "1992 Consensus.". Despite these efforts, the Democratic Progressive Party and pro-independence factions in Taiwan have remained defiant, dismissing China as a paper tiger, while unlawfully rebranding Taiwan Province as the "Nation of Taiwan" and misappropriating Chinese assets.

    Pragmatic independence advocate Lai Ching-te, elected by a 40% minority, has introduced a new version of the "Two-State Theory." However, on October 8th, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Daniel Kritenbrink, reaffirmed the United States' commitment to the One-China policy and reiterated its opposition to Taiwan independence.

    The meaning of the One-China policy and opposition to Taiwan independence:
    
    There is only one legitimate Chinese government in the world. UN Resolution 2758 and US with 182 other countries recognize the People's Republic of China as the only legal government of China. Taiwan is part of China—whether during the Qing Dynasty, the Republic of China, or the People's Republic of China, whichever government represents China holds sovereignty over Taiwan.

    In 1894-1895, Japan initiated the First Sino-Japanese War, compelling China to sign the Treaty of Shimonoseki, which ceded Taiwan to Japan. This clearly indicates that Taiwan was part of China at the time. After World War II, in 1945, Japan returned Taiwan to China in accordance with the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations. However, following the outbreak of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan with the Republic of China government, leading to the political division of China.

    United Nations and the 183 countries, including the United States, that have established diplomatic relations with China, acknowledging Taiwan as a province of China.

    After the Democratic Progressive Party, which pursues Taiwanese independence, came to power, corruption in Taiwan's political scene has run rampant, with numerous unspeakable scandals. Politicians manipulate elections, colluding with businesses for personal gain. They focus on short-term flashy achievements and superficial visual effects, neglecting long-term development, and have fallen into a trap of short-sightedness. The corrupt former President Chen Shui-bian remains free, while the wealth gap widens, wages stagnate, and housing prices soar, leading to a declining birth rate among the younger generation. In 2024, Taiwan and South Korea ranked first globally for the lowest fertility rates.

    The Tainan green energy scandal involved gunfire and collective corruption in the legislative body. Policies favored ineffective vaccines, while President Tsai Ing-wen's alleged fraudulent UK doctoral thesis was sealed for 30 years to avoid judicial scrutiny. A small egg distributor with only NT$500,000 in capital received an exorbitant NT$175 million subsidy. Energy policies have failed, electricity prices have risen, and the promised nuclear-free homeland by 2025 remains a lie. The new finance minister, Chih-hui Kuo, has become a scapegoat, likened to an ant on a hot pan, and was forced to manage energy projects in the Philippines. Populism is used to demonize China and manipulate cross-strait relations, with the phrase "China's conspiracy" becoming a panacea for seizing power and governing through corruption.

    In comparison to China, what attracts the people of Taiwan…
    
    Forty percent of Taiwan's GDP is contributed by Mainland China. Mainland China is Taiwan's largest export destination and surplus market. In 2013, Taiwan's exports to Mainland China amounted to $342.22 billion USD, resulting in a trade surplus of $85.86 billion USD, which accounted for 35.2% of Taiwan's total export volume.

    In 2023, Taiwan ranked 12th among China's provinces and cities in terms of GDP:
    
    1. Guangdong Province: $1.88 trillion
    
    2.Jiangsu Province: $1.76 trillion
    
    3. Shandong Province: $1.32 trillion
    
    4. Zhejiang Province: $1.18 trillion
    
    5. Henan Province: $871 billion
    
    6. Sichuan Province: $857 billion
    
    7. Fujian Province: $759 billion
    
    8. Hubei Province: $731 billion
    
    9. Hunan Province: $689 billion
    
    10.Shanghai City: $647 billion
    
    11.Beijing City: $618 billion
    
    12.Taiwan Province: $605 billion

    Regarding the necessity and feasibility of Taiwan independence…
    
    None of the four major pillars invoked by Taiwan independence advocates in their call for self-determination and an independence referendum stand up to scrutiny:

    1. Historical and Cultural Factors: Taiwan was ceded to Japan by the Qing Dynasty in 1895, but was returned to China in accordance with international law following Japan’s defeat in 1945. Over 90% of Taiwan’s population are descendants of Han Chinese immigrants from mainland China, sharing the same language, script, culture, and bloodline with the mainland. Taiwan’s status as a part of China is historically and legally justified.

    2. International Support: United Nations Resolution 2758 recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government representing China, replacing the Republic of China. Today, 183 countries acknowledge the PRC as the only legal government of China, and affirm that Taiwan is a part of China. Taiwan’s status as part of China is backed by the international community.

    3. Domestic (Cross-Strait) Political Situation: On the issue of unification versus independence, mainland China firmly opposes Taiwan’s independence, and as the world’s second-largest economic and military power, it holds significant influence. Within Taiwan, there are deep divisions on the issue, with most preferring to maintain the current status quo. Faced with the threat of war, the vast majority of people favor resolving cross-strait issues through peaceful means.

    4. Geographic Location and Resources: The shortest distance between Taiwan and mainland China is about 130 kilometers (81 miles). Taiwan’s proximity to mainland China has historically made it a significant destination for Chinese immigrants. Taiwan’s economy is heavily reliant on the mainland, with about 40% of its exports going to China. Taiwan lacks natural resources and depends on large-scale imports, making it ill-equipped to bear the risks of war, and it cannot realistically sustain permanent hostilities with a rising and revitalized China.

    The Chinese Civil War has yet to end, and the current challenge is whether to resolve the cross-strait issue through force or peaceful means.

20. 👍

21. china di ibaratkan orang yang sangat lambat marah karena bbeberapa pertimbangan tp kalu pemerintah taiwan yg tdk tahu diri yg terus menerus mengganggu dan sdh tidak dpt di tolerir akan sangat berbahaya krn walaupun saudara sedarah china akan menghabisi taiwan dgn sangat brutal .dan tdk ada sisa yg dpt di ambil dr taiwan.jd bagi pemerintah taiwan jangan kalian terlalu yakin bisa bertahan dr kemarahan china dan merasa amerika bisa membantu taiwan .amerika tidak akan pernah menang dlm setiap pertempuran di negara manapun dulu dan sekarang.KESABARAN ADA BATASNYA,BILA HABIS DIA TIDAK SADAR APA YG TELAH DI LAKUKAN.

22. Possible and the Philippines too?! Feel very sad

23. Dr.O Bon Voyage and many happy returns!!

24. Taiwan is being hollow out from within with the Chip War. TSMC is Taiwan major revenue earner now but once its gone Taiwan will have very little to export (economy doomed). China mainland is now running full stream ahead in developing their own chip industry to ensure 100% independent but also being able to manufacture /dominate all the lower and mid end chips productions just like solar panels, EV cars, EV batteries. When u out produce all competitors in volume and price Taiwan will have nothing to sell resulting in economic disaster. Taiwan is actually a very small place with a very small economy and without China economic support it will have very little economy. Economy means jobs equal a roof over your head and food on the table to feed your family.

25. Watching this video, I could sense Taiwan infrastructure is pale as compared to China first tier city.

26. in South East Asia, there were old rumors about children being kidnapped and mutilated so that they could be deployed as beggars to earn money for crime syndicates

27. Could Taiwan become next Ukraine?
    No, the next Ukraine is Israel 2025, Philippines 2026,and perhaps Taiwan 2027. Unless Taiwan declares Independence. It will be today.

28. The Chinese will never killed their brothers and sisters in Taiwan unless they’ve no choice. Hope Taiwanese are smart enough not to be used by the Americans for their own agenda.

29. Doc CHINA IS NOT ABOUT TO LET TAIWAN BECOME THE NEXT UKRAINE! RIGHT NOW THE WORLD HAS HAD ENOUGH OF the u.s.a.! I keep telling you because of americas actions BOTH RUSSIA AND CHINA WILL BE DOING SOMETHING REGARDING the u.s. IN THE FUTURE!!!!

30. This was what Jimmy Carter publicly announced and recognized Taiwan as part of China in 1978. The US administration(s), its agencies and the Top 1% American hegemonic elites and oligarchs (not the general American citizens who are also their victims) is telling the world the real meaning of Hypocrisy.
    https://youtu.be/0HRocwYeEAA?si=sb2tPsuMfOzUt6SN

31. For the past decade Taipei really hasn't changed that much in regards to infrastructure and modernization by comparison to most tier 1 and 2 cities on the mainland for the same time frame and really seems like it has been left behind.One could argue this is because of a failing economy or perhaps mismanagement of funds.
    Basically without the Semiconductor industry Taiwan would be in serious strife, and since they have elected to force China's hand in home grown Chip manufacturing by supporting the U.S chip War , I would say in around 5 -10 years they are going to have a major economic problem !

32. Probably not. Taiwanese are much more sensible than Ukrainians!

33. The Taiwanese are not stupid. They know the US will never come if a war breaks out with China. The only people stupid enough in the SCS is Japan and maybe Philippines. Many in that area will suck up to the US to get $$ or weapons, but not fight for the US.
    IMO, China will never need to send troops to Taiwan. Taiwanese wants to keep things status quo and Beijing is OK with it becoming a sort of SAR.
    Two countries the US avoids engaging directly – Russia and China. As time passes, the chance of a direct military engagement becomes less likely as the US declines.

34. There is one thing that is still in Taiwan favor. I.e ort ancestors + Buddhism & including Confucius had stated, in order for Chinese to experience happiness, glory friendship, status, Chinese mus not fight Chinese. for the health & benefit of their children . Only the nationalist yanks ,& their do called allies r stirer of the most evil type.

35. 5G fighter jets are the "toys" of Russia US and China.
    1) Sorties and airtime are restricted in range.
    2) Sorties are regional and dependent on mid air refueling tankers.
    3) The 5G fighters are stealth but the refuelling tankers are not stealth.
    4) Neutralise the refueling tanker, the whole squadron is done. F22s and B21s forced to land on Hainan Island again.

36. Never. Because Xi is not Putin. No matter what happens, Xi dares not for any war. China only talks, never act.

37. Dr David I am impressed with your analysis of mainland China and Taiwan. You went to the ground to get a first-hand feel of the difference between China and Taiwan. I hope more Americans could visit China to understand China better and not to be swayed by the Western media controlled by the US government.
    China wants a peaceful reunification with Taiwan and not war. In a war, no winners. Loss of lives destruction of economy and destroy climate.

38. Thanks David and ❤from 🇿🇦

39. The Red line to military action is if Taiwan was silly enough to allow a Foreign base on the Island . Besides that I believe China will simply wait until the demise of Taiwan's economy which if you read my other comment will be in decline due to the chip war. It is far more enticing for the average person to accept reunification once their country that was ahead of China in regards to quality of life falls behind to those on the mainland !

40. Depends on how coo coo Taiwanese are.

41. Taiwan is a distraction, the real issue is China an active force to remove the US dollar as the reserve currency. China could CAPTURE the island within one hour.

42. Dr Oualaalou, you have streamed two dozen shorts, livestreams and uploads for the community. And taking a stroll around the hotel at 0300H. You have done too much for the community in China. You can have one week off, relax in the hotel lobby and sip nice teas in an authentic Chinese Tea House. I will buy a nice cup of tea in the lobby for you. Take a rest, relax. Plan your next itenerary in China. Wherever you like to go, be my guest. You are a good friend of China, like Edgar Snow.