German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron in Berlin on October 18, 2024. LISI NIESNER / REUTERSThe time for farewells between Joe Biden and the Europeans has not quite come, with less than three weeks to go before the American presidential election. The American president took advantage of a brief visit to Germany on Friday, October 18, in Berlin, to talk with Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer about the current pressing issues in Ukraine and the Middle East. Their discussions were held against the backdrop of a complicated transition period on the international stage following the November 5 vote, whether Democrat Kamala Harris wins or, more critically, Donald Trump returns to the White House in January 2025.
On the subject of Ukraine, the main item on the agenda, the four leaders are seeking above all to coordinate their responses to the “victory plan” that Volodymyr Zelensky has presented to them in recent weeks. In the Ukrainian president’s mind, the aim is to enable his country to reverse the balance of power with Russia, with the still distant prospect of opening negotiations to end the fighting, if possible by 2025. But with Russian troops advancing in the east of the country, Kyiv’s demands to its main Western allies are generating strong divergences between Washington, Paris, London and Berlin. “It’s an ambitious plan that raises complex issues on which there is no automatic convergence of views,” summed up one diplomat.
At the top of the list of sensitive issues is the question, forcefully revived by Zelensky, of inviting his country to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In his view, such a move is the best possible security guarantee for Kyiv, as it would dissuade Russia from resuming the war once the guns have fallen silent. For the Ukrainian leader, this invitation would ideally come before December and the end of Biden’s term of office, but Ukraine’s integration into the Atlantic alliance would become a reality at best after the end of the war.
Germany’s ambivalence
So far, the United States and Germany are blocking any prospect of NATO enlargement to include Ukraine, while France and the United Kingdom are more favorable. However, according to some sources, the Americans no longer have any objections in principle to a simple invitation. As one European diplomatic source explained, “If Kamala Harris is elected, we could imagine Biden moving in this direction during the transition period. If it’s Trump, the reasoning is no longer applicable and the slightest initiative by Biden risks making things worse.” The most optimistic believe that a move by the US could nevertheless lead to a change in Germany’s position.
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