Moldova’s EU referendum stirs drama

Overnight results initially indicated a sensational lead for the anti-EU camp, with 57% of the vote. By midday, however, after 99.41% of the votes had been counted, authorities announced that the pro-EU camp had narrowly won with 50.39% in favor compared to 49.61% against. Regardless, the result was disappointing for Sandu.

The vote in Moldova — a country of 2.6 million people that was once part of the Soviet Union but has been increasingly looking to Western Europe, especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — was marked by significant tension.

The pro-European President Sandu accused Russia of “unprecedented” interference in Moldova’s internal affairs, claiming an attempt to disrupt the vote, distance Chisinau from the West and keep it within Russia’s sphere of influence.

Moldovan police conducted around 350 raids in recent months, arresting hundreds suspected of intending to interfere in the vote on Russia’s behalf. The allegations included not only spreading misinformation and pro-Russian propaganda but also “buying” approximately 300,000 votes — a quarter of the expected total electorate — in a bid to sway the results in favor of the anti-EU camp.

The pro-Russian campaign was reportedly led by Israeli businessman Ilan Shor, who fled to Moscow after being accused in Moldova of attempting to destabilize the country on behalf of the Kremlin and was convicted on corruption charges.

Shor mocked Sandu on social media over her supposed “defeat” and “miserable failure,” when initial results of the referendum were reported on.

Even as Sandu has narrowly secured victory in the referendum, it’s hard to view it as a success. The 52-year-old president, a former World Bank economist who strongly supports joining the European Union, initiated the referendum to gain public credit for her policy and hoped for a resounding win.

Not only was the victory achieved by a very slim margin but it was carried via an unusually high voter turnout among Moldovan citizens living abroad, a population that largely supports EU membership. This fact is likely to undermine Sandu’s leadership within Moldova and the pro-European image she and her supporters have tried to project internationally.

Moldova began its EU accession process this past June and according to Sandu’s plan aims to complete it by 2030. The emerging results are a major disappointment not only for Sandu but also for Brussels, which, amid what appears to be Georgia’s return to closer ties with Russia, hoped at least to draw Moldova into its sphere of influence in the geopolitical struggle against Russia.

In a speech delivered early on Monday, Sandu said there was “clear evidence” that criminal organizations collaborated with foreign entities hostile to Moldova’s interests, channeling tens of millions of euros into the process in an attempt to distort the vote and buy hundreds of thousands of votes.

She also claimed it was an unprecedented scale of fraud and vowed not to back down. “Their objective was to undermine a democratic process. Their intention was to spread fear and panic in society… We are waiting for the final results, and we will respond with firm decisions.”

The referendum took place alongside Moldova’s presidential elections and the results published overnight indicate Sandu is also facing challenges in her political career. While she garnered 42% of the votes, she didn’t secure the 50% needed to win in the first round, forcing her into a second round on November 3 where she will face former Attorney General Alexandr Stoianoglo who won 26% of voters.

Stoianoglo, who has the backing of pro-Russian socialists, could rally support from other candidates’ supporters, posing a threat to Sandu’s presidency. He claims that if he comes to power, he’ll pursue a “balanced” policy, maintaining ties with all parties — the European Union, the U.S. and Russia.

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