Having missed out on a return to the second tier of the UEFA Nations League last time – losing out to Georgia – Bulgaria will be looking to do one better this edition. The Lions are currently in the third group of Nations League C with Belarus, Luxembourg, and Northern Ireland, with promotion via the automatic spot or playoff position the target. Let us look at their performance so far and the chances of returning to League B for the first time since their relegation in the inaugural edition of 2018.
Bulgaria’s 2024 Nations League Campaign has been slightly underwhelming, with five points after four matches. It culminated with a five-to-nil thrashing away to Northern Ireland in the just concluded round over the most recent international break. With two more rounds left to play and currently in third position, there is little room for error if they are to challenge for the top two spots.
Up next for the Bulgarian team is a trip to Luxembourg for the fifth-round match on the 15th of November. This match is of enormous significance for both teams, especially as the hosts are rooted firmly at the foot of the table with two points after four games, so the Lions should expect a fiery contest. Bulgaria has historically been a heavy favourite, winning the first 13 of the 16 meetings between these two nations. The contest has been less one-sided in recent matches with three consecutive draws, most recently a scoreless draw in the reverse fixture.
Another draw looks to be on the cards for these teams, ranked 87 and 81, respectively, according to FIFA, and it won’t be the worst result considering how solid Luxembourg has been in recent times. If you also feel the most likely outcome is a draw and would like to bet on it, you can check out the top sites recommended by Cheeky Punter with the best odds for this match.
The final round of this Nations League 2024 for Bulgaria will be a home match against Belarus on the 18th of November and will likely be a winner-take-all scenario. Belarus is second in the standings with six points and occupies the playoff spot, which Bulgaria will be aiming for, as Northern Ireland looks set to capture the first position. The Lions will see this match as a must-win game against the least-ranked team in the group, with Belarus currently ranked 97 in the FIFA men’s ranking.
Historical data will give more confidence to the Bulgarians as they have come out on top in five of their nine meetings, with Belarus victorious three times. The most recent meeting, a reverse of this fixture, ended in a goalless draw. The data becomes more one-sided when you look at the home fixtures, as they have won four of the last five matches played in Bulgaria. However, their last home match against Belarus ended in a loss, though a friendly.
Bulgaria will know they still have their promotion destiny in their hand despite the slow start, which should give them confidence. It is left to see if they can take advantage of the window of opportunity and fight for a place in the second tier of the Nations League come the next campaign.