At a wind-swept amusement park in southern Moldova, a mother-of-two wondered out loud which candidate to back in the country’s run-off presidential race.
Tatiana Kyvyrzhyk concluded she would be fine letting the oligarch who built the park — Gagauzialand — decide on her behalf. “He’ll name a candidate the night before,” she said.
Moldovan police have accused the oligarch, Ilan Șor, of using his influence, as well as massive Russian funds, to run a tight-knit network of voters across the country that he can bribe and deploy to vote on Moscow’s behalf.
Officials say this network was activated with great effectiveness on Sunday, when a historic referendum on Moldova’s EU membership aspirations produced a surprise result for President Maia Sandu.
Gagauzialand built by Ilan Șor, who fled the country in 2019 after being convicted of embezzlement. He now lives in Moscow © Polina Ivanova/FT
Her confidence that the vote would demonstrate Moldova’s resounding support to join the EU and, away from the Russian fold, proved misplaced. Instead, “yes” scraped to victory with just a few thousand votes.
As ballots were still being counted, Sandu stepped out to decry the “foreign forces” and “criminal gangs” she said had deployed massive amounts of dirty money in an attempt to steal the vote, and almost succeeded. She also failed to secure her re-election for a second term on Sunday, with a run-off presidential election scheduled for November 3.
Russia spent the equivalent of 1 per cent of Moldova’s GDP on attempts to interfere in the dual vote and is expected to redouble its efforts next year when the ex-Soviet country holds parliamentary elections, said a Moldovan official.
The EU’s diplomatic service on Monday said “Russia and its proxies actively tried to undermine the democratic and voting process in Moldova”, commending Chișinău for holding free and fair elections “nevertheless”.
The Kremlin has denied any meddling, and said Moldova’s government has suppressed pro-Russian views.
Prior to the vote, Moldova’s police chief pointed the blame directly at Șor, who fled the country in 2019 after being convicted of massive embezzlement, and is now a Russian citizen living in Moscow. He has denied the accusations of voter bribery.
In the region of Gagauzia, where the pro-EU vote was the lowest at just 5 per cent, Kyvyrzhyk said she did not mind Șor’s reputation. “Everybody steals,” she said, “but some steal in a better way.” At least Șor, she said, invested in building the park. “In winter, they want to do an ice rink,” she said.
With a population of some 150,000, Gagauzia has long seen itself as apart from the rest of the country. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it voted for independence, before accepting autonomous status within Moldova.
For decades, Moscow has worked to amplify local grievances in an attempt to turn the region into a lever of influence over Chișinău.
It has sought to capitalise on the desire of the Gagauz, a Turkic ethnic minority group, for an independent path, relying also on the fact that many are Russian speakers, as well as Orthodox Christians. Many also watch Russian state TV, unable to follow predominantly Romanian-language Moldovan channels.
Everyone spoke Russian in her hometown, Kyvyrzhyk said, as “the Soviet past still has that effect”. She said she felt her identity was Russian first, then Gagauz, and not Moldovan at all.
But Gagauzia has also long been economically depressed, and Sandu’s critics say that by focusing on Russia’s role in the vote, she is playing down legitimate disappointment with her four years of rule, that could be pushing people away from her EU vision, too.
“Euros, what euros? There are no lei here, let alone euros,” said a woman in the Gagauzia village of Beșalma, referring to Moldova’s currency, as she walked past a rural church.
In Comrat, the region’s capital, a sweets-seller in the local market said she felt like she was forced to spend or give away “every penny earned”.
“I don’t want to move towards Europe, we should be with Russia. With Russia you can really live, and well. Not like this,” she said, adding she received her news mostly on Russian TV.
Kyvyrzhyk said that with so many in Gagauzia struggling to make ends meet, no wonder people were selling their votes to whoever would offer them cash.
“They offer 200-400 lei [$11-$22],” she said. “Of course people will be led by this and give away their vote . . . It’s much easier to bribe people here than in Chișinău. Salaries are so low,” she said, adding she was a stay-at-home mum but would take a job for even $280 a month if she could find one.
President Maia Sandu arrives for a press conference in Chișinău. She secured just 2% of the presidential vote in Gagauzia © Daniel Mihailescu/AFP/Getty Images
But since Sandu launched her push to break openly with Russia, applying for EU membership soon after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine and since Șor arrived in Russia in 2021, Moscow’s attempts to keep a foothold in Gagauzia have intensified.
Last year, the Șor party, which has since been outlawed after being accused of receiving illicit funding from the Kremlin, successfully backed an unknown candidate, Evghenia Guţul, for the post of Baskan, or governor, of Gagauzia.
Șor has denied any wrongdoing.
Though police said they had uncovered a voter bribery and blackmail network working in her favour, Guţul kept her post, and has since visited Russia, meeting President Vladimir Putin.
“In Gagauzia, with its autonomous status, [Sor] has more freedom of manoeuvre,” said Olga Roșca, Sandu’s adviser on foreign policy. “He and Russia exploit historical and cultural ties, along with the region’s socio-economic challenges. As a result, Gagauzia has become a power base he can use to destabilise Chișinău.”
Last week, the EU imposed sanctions on Guţul and five other Gagauz politicians for promoting separatism and threatening Moldova’s independence.
“From the autumn of 2021, Șor really joined his efforts up with Russia, and the Kremlin started to sponsor his activities here,” said Valeriu Pașa, head of the WatchDog.MD think-tank. “Now, he is the main manager of Russian interference in Moldova.”
“Through his structures, they are sponsoring a lot of media and influencers and disinformation channels on all social media and ads on television,” Pașa said, adding the elections for Gagauzia’s governor were one of several key stepping stones to Sunday’s vote.
In social media posts, Șor has openly campaigned against EU membership and promised Moldovan pensioners to award them a bonus monthly payment if they vote “no”.
Șor’s new political outfit called Victorie (Victory) sports Soviet-inspired logos and colours, as seen on its headquarters in Comrat, the Gagauz capital.
The headquarters of Ilan Șor’s political outfit ‘Victorie‘ in Comrat, Gagauzia © Polina Ivanova/FT
In the presidential vote, Sandu secured just 2 per cent in Gagauzia, which is home to her rival in the upcoming run-off, Alexandr Stoianoglo.
At the market in Comrat, a former classmate of Stoianoglo’s said she was sure the region would back one of its own, even if Stoianoglo’s geopolitical position is less clear-cut.
On the one hand, his candidacy has been backed by the pro-Russian Socialist party, and Sandu has described him as the Kremlin’s “preferred candidate”. On the other, he is running as an independent, and has supported EU integration in principle.
But the former classmate said this was representative of Moldovan society, as it navigates its complex course between east and west.
Some of her children were working in Russia, so she felt she wanted a more Russia-friendly course for the country. The man who brought produce for her stall, however, had kids in the US, “so he wants to join Europe”, she said. “Each to their own!”