Moldova Takes a Big Step toward Joining the West – American Legislative Exchange Council

The invasion of Ukraine forced the countries in Russia’s near abroad to reevaluate their security recognizing that Putin’s imperial ambitions could threaten their national sovereignty. Moldova, strategically placed between Romania and Ukraine and Europe’s most economically challenged nation, has long feared being absorbed by Moscow. Moldova’s concerns are not unfounded; since 1992, Russia’s military presence in the separatist region of Transnistria has granted Putin a foothold inside Moldova’s borders. Preventing Moldova from Becoming Russia’s Next Victim describes this and other Kremlin attempts to destabilize the government and coerce Moldova’s allegiance to Russia through a series of tactics including false flag operations and propaganda. Last weekend Moldovans besieged by a torrent of Russian disinformation and interference, went to the polls to reject Russian domination and chart a path towards European integration, an idea echoed in ALEC Model Policy.

The ballot in the former Soviet republic included a referendum to enshrine  joining the European Union (EU) in Moldova’s constitution, which began with EU accession negotiations in June 2024. In a region where Russian disinformation is endemic and state capture is common, the election results would ensure that it would be incumbent on future Moldovan governments, regardless of their Kremlin ties, to continue the EU accession process. Unfortunately, western-aligned Moldovan President Maia Sandu and her pro-EU platform achieved a clear victory in her reelection campaign however she was unable to obtain enough support to avoid a runoff election in the coming weeks. Contrary to pre-election polling, which suggested strong support for EU integration and a clean break from Russia, the referendum results were less than a percentage point apart. Supporters secured 50.39% of the vote, compared to  49.61% for the opposition.

Russian interference in the election is likely to blame for the narrow referendum victory. Russia spent millions of euros to influence the electorate, according to Western and Moldovan officials. Disinformation campaigns and drives to incite mass public unrest were funded, most notably, by Russian Oligarch Ilan Shor, who is a Moldovan, anti-EU, alleged criminal billionaire hiding in Russia. He was sentenced to seven and a half years in prison for his role in a Moldovan bank fraud scheme. Mr. Shor is also believed to have utilized bribes in a bid to engineer a pro-Russian outcome which was facilitated by Moldova’s relative poverty. In the weeks leading up to the referendum, people flying from Moscow to Moldova brought thousands of euros into the country; Moldovan officials believe the money was part of a brazen scheme used to pay an estimated 10% of the country’s voters to cast their ballot against the referendum. While Russia denies any interference, apart from claiming that the West stole the election, Mr. Shor himself even promised remuneration to voters who rejected the referendum on his TikTok.

Ploys to upend democratic elections are a shopworn tactic in Putin’s ongoing campaign to weaken Western resolve and prevent political and economic integration of its neighbors.  Kremlin efforts have been especially evident in Georgia, whose government, led by the Georgian Dream party (GDP), has steered the country away from the West, despite the population’s fervent desire to join the EU and NATO. Georgia’s EU accession process has been put on pause since 2023 due to the GDP adopting anti-West rhetoric . The GDP has been coopted by Russia through its unofficial leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, an oligarch with close ties to Moscow, who is believed to pull the strings in the Georgian government. If Georgian Dream wins in elections scheduled for October 26, the government’s alignment with Russia and the deterioration of Georgian democracy will continue; Ivanishvili has already vowed to ban opposition groups if victorious. The country’s upcoming political contest could be an opportunity to dethrone Ivanishvili, revitalize Georgia’s EU aspirations, and reverse the democratic backsliding outlined in ALEC’s article: Democratic Hope Fades in the Republic of Georgia. However, according to recent polls, Georgian Dream is expected to prevail. While no bribery or misinformation campaigns have been uncovered in Georgia, as they were in Moldova, Ivanishvili’s party’s strong ties to Russia and guarantees of a war with Putin if they lose make a free and fair election in Georgia appear to be out of reach.

Russia, which has become an international pariah since invading Ukraine, clings to what it believes is its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and Eurasia. However, Moldova’s reaffirmed commitment to a European path has foiled Putin’s aspirations for a rebirth of the old Soviet Empire, for now. So far, his aggressive tactics to end European expansion and integration have only brought the West closer together, Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO entry and Moldova’s pursuit of a European exemplifying this trend. Putin’s Russian Gambit Unites Democracies He Sought to Divide describes this phenomenon of uncommon Western unity. While accession into the EU will undoubtedly take time, Moldova has taken a significant step to cement its future to the West and possibly to escape the Russian orbit forever.