Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be in a worse position among swing voters against former President Donald Trump than President Joe Biden was four years ago, new analysis shows.
Polls have consistently shown a close race between Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and Trump, the Republican candidate. However, polls have appeared to tighten further in recent weeks, showing an essentially tied race nationally as well as in critical battleground states. Swing voters, the critical demographic expected to be the decisive factor in the election, appear to be nearly split as well.
A report for Newsweek by Impact Social, an online monitoring and analysis company, shows Harris is trailing compared to where Biden was with swing voter sentiment back in 2020. Harris is 9 points ahead of where the current president was four years ago.
“Back then Biden wasn’t the incumbent, so simply badged himself ‘Not Trump’. Harris, in failing to divorce herself from issues like inflation and immigration, does not have that luxury. So despite being 1 point ahead of Trump overall, the VP is in considerably worse position than her predecessor,” Phil Snape of Imapct Social said.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek
The latest analysis shows Trump and Harris both improving among swing voters sentiments, but the former president has surged 9 points while the vice president is up just 4 points since last week. This puts Harris just 1 point ahead of Trump.
“Trump will be particularly pleased as his surge in support is being fuelled by people posting directly in favor of him (rather than in reaction to Harris), which has also countered concerted attacks from the other side suggesting he is confused, unhinged and a threat to democracy,” Snape said.
He pointed out that “Harris has enjoyed increased positivity around her candidacy.” Snape said this is “likely influence turn out” in a positive way for Harris due to voter enthusiasm. At the same time, swing voters still largely view Harris an “incumbent,” which could have negative implications.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns on Friday via email for comment.
What Do Polling Averages Show?
The polling average by ABC News polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight shows Harris up narrowly by 1.5 points nationally. The Democrat is at 48 percent compared to Trump’s 46.5 percent.
The Republican leads Harris narrowly in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, according to FiveThirtyEight’s averages. Harris leads by the narrowest margin in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Similar, Nate Silver‘s Silver Bulletin forecast shows Harris ahead nationally by 1.3 points. The Democrat is at 48.5 percent and the Republican is at 47.2 percent. Silver’s averages shows Harris leading narrowly in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, while Trump is up in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
How Polling Compares to 2016 and 2020?
Harris holds a smaller polling lead than Biden or former Democratic candidate and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did at the same point in the 2020 and 2016 elections.
On October 25, 2016, FiveThirtyEight showed Clinton ahead of Trump by 6.1 points nationally, 49.5 percent to 43.4 percent. On the same date in 2020, FiveThirtyEight showed Biden up by a little more than 9 points nationally. The Democrat had the support of an average of 52 percent of voters compared to Trump’s 42.9 percent.
Clinton went on to wing the popular vote nationally in 2016 but lost in the Electoral College, which determines the election’s outcome with each state assigned a number of votes based on population. Biden won the popular vote by an even larger margin in 2020, but only narrowly won the Electoral College by pulling of a series of wins in critical swing states.