Finland’s current logging levels threaten its goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2035, according to the Finnish Environment Institute. New estimates indicate that annual logging must drop from 80 million m3 to 60–62 million m3, a 25% reduction, to meet this legally mandated target. Achieving carbon neutrality means balancing greenhouse gas emissions with removals, primarily through forest carbon sinks. The revised estimate assumes a net carbon sink of 21 million tons of CO2 equivalent from the land use sector, without further emission cuts in other areas.
In September, Finland’s industrial roundwood harvesting reached 5.8 million m3, a 25% rise compared to the same month last year, according to the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke). From January to September, total roundwood harvesting increased by 2% compared to 2023. Sawlog removals reached 3.0 million m3, while pulpwood removals were 2.9 million m3. Non-industrial private forests played a key role, supplying 4.7 million m3, a 34% increase from last year. Forest industry companies and state-owned forests contributed an additional 1.2 million m3, up 4% year-over-year. Energywood removals stood at 625,000 m3, with delimbed stems and whole trees comprising 38% of the total.
The Climate Act requires the land use sector to provide a net sink of 21 million tons of CO2 equivalent by 2035. If other sectors achieve greater emission reductions than mandated, this requirement for the land use sector could decrease.
High logging rates have weakened Finland’s forest carbon sinks, which are essential for absorbing emissions. In 2021 and 2022, the land use sector became a net emitter, releasing about 4 million tons of CO2 equivalent. The decline in forest carbon sinks has been a major factor in these emissions.
A June 2024 report from the VN TEAS PEIKKO project outlined three scenarios under current energy and climate policies. None meet the 2035 carbon neutrality target without additional measures. According to the scenarios, achieving neutrality would require an additional 16–19 million tons of CO2 equivalent in reductions with annual logging at 82 million m3, and 2 million tons with logging at 70 million m3 during 2029–2038. The report also warns that forest sinks could be 8–12 million tons lower than expected by 2035 due to high logging levels.
The institute’s revised calculations show that forest soil carbon sinks could fall 11 million tons short under current harvesting levels. This further complicates Finland’s efforts to reach the 2035 target, underscoring the urgent need to cut logging by 25%.