Two countries facing key votes on future role in Europe

Two countries, Moldova and Georgia, are holding hold pivotal votes within a week of one another that will decide their future path in Europe.

Both have felt the shadow of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and both are former Soviet republics.

Georgians go to the polls on Saturday in a vote that will decide their future direction towards the European Union, with the governing party accused of “democratic backsliding”.

Only six days before, Moldova’s pro-EU president Maia Sandu suffered a setback when the referendum on adding Moldova’s EU accession as an irreversible constitutional goal passed by a tiny margin and was marred by serious accusations of vote-buying.

Moldovans went to the polls on 20 October in a referendum on enshrining Moldova’s path to EU membership in the constitution – alongside the presidential election. The final referendum result was 50.38% for Yes and 49.62% for No.

The narrow victory for the Yes camp after a nail-biting count came as a surprise to many, as several surveys before the vote had suggested a substantial majority of up to 63% voters would back the referendum.

Maia Sandu slammed the result as the product of foreign interference in Moldovan politics, saying that pro-EU forces had won the first battle in a “difficult fight”.

Moldovan police said over the past two months fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor had moved $39m (£30m) into Moldovan bank accounts in a Russian vote-buying scheme.

Sandu said without the bribery “we would have had a convincing victory in the presidential election and the referendum”.

The Kremlin has denied meddling in Moldova. However, even before the vote many in the pro-European camp had denounced what they said were Russian efforts to spread disinformation and influence the vote.

Moldova’s population is just over 2.5 million, while 1.2 million Moldovans live abroad.

A committed European, Maia Sandu became president in 2020. The 52-year-old founder of the liberal Party of Action and Solidarity won the first round of Sunday presidential election with 42%.

But it was not enough to avoid a second round on 3 November, when she will face off against Alexander Stoianoglo, the former prosecutor general of Moldova who came second with around 26% of the vote.

Stoianoglo took many by surprise when he announced he was running for president in July.

He is supported by the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, whose leader is ex-president and popular opposition figure Igor Dodon. Several other candidates are likely to throw their support behind Stoianoglo, complicating Sandu’s path to re-election.

At just over 50%, turnout at Sunday’s election and referendum was lower than predicted.

Even if Sandu wins the second round of the presidential election parliamentary elections next July look difficult for her party, which may have to work with less staunchly pro-EU forces if it wants to govern.

Ilan Shor has loomed large over the election, despite apparently living in Russia. In September, he offered money to convince “as many people as possible” to vote No or to abstain in the EU referendum.

His Shor Party was banned in Moldova last year following allegations of working with Russia to undermine Moldova’s security and constitutional order. Shor first fled to Israel in 2019 after being convicted of fraud and money-laundering.

Pro-European forces in Moldova have long warned of Russian interference in the election and referendum vote.

Russia still has a military base in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria along Moldova’s border with Ukraine, and there is also an autonomous Russian-speaking region called Gagauzia. The governor there, Eugenia Gutul, is an active supporter of Vladimir Putin and has been sanctioned by the EU for threatening Moldova’s independence.

Authorities have linked some cases of vandalism and disinformation campaigns on social media to Shor and to his alleged Kremlin backers.

Moldova’s chief of police Viorel Cernauteanu said police and prosecutors had found that attempts to bribe voters had begun months ago, and that at least 138,000 Moldovans had benefited from the $39m transferred in the past two months.

Before the vote, Mr Cernauteanu alleged that dozens of Moldovans had recently travelled to Moscow, ostensibly to attend “cultural exchange programmes”, but actually receiving training to stir violence ahead of the elections.

The Kremlin maintains it “does not interfere in other people’s affairs” and has accused Moldova’s authorities of “denying many citizens a right to say that they support having good relations with Russia”.

There is a lot of stake for Georgians when they vote in parliamentary elections on Saturday.

This country of 3.7 million people has become highly polarised – with the governing party, Georgian Dream, accused of creeping authoritarianism with a succession of Russia-style laws that steer Georgia away from its European path.

Opposition parties, and Georgia’s pro-Western president, have sought to frame this vote as a choice between Europe and Russia – a label firmly rejected by Georgian Dream, which is aiming for a fourth term in power.

It was only last December that Georgians were celebrating the EU granting their country official candidate status, with polls suggesting support from at least 80% of Georgians.

By the summer, the EU had frozen that process, because of a “foreign influence law” that brought tens of thousands of protesters onto the streets of the capital Tbilisi.

The law requires media and NGOs with foreign funding to register as acting in the interest of a foreign power. Since then Georgian Dream has also enacted a law curbing LGBT rights.

The EU and US have all issued warnings against backsliding from democracy. The EU’s ambassador in Tbilisi has warned it could temporarily suspend its visa-free regime with Georgia if the vote is not deemed free and fair. US President Joe Biden pointedly withdrew a recent invite to a reception to Georgia’s Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze.

Russia has accused the West of blatantly trying to put pressure on Georgia, denying that the Kremlin has itself has sought to do so.

But Georgian Dream maintains it is still on the path to joining the EU.

The prime minister promises a reset in relations with the West, and EU membership by 2030, as well as deepening co-operation with Nato.

The party has been in power since 2012, and if Georgian Dream wins, party founder Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire who made his fortune in Russia, has promised to ban opposition groups. But to do that he would need three-quarters of the seats in the 150-seat parliament to change the constitution.

The opposition itself is split into four main groups, so while Georgian Dream has declined in popularity it still leads in the opinion polls.

However, if all four opposition blocs get into parliament they could combine in an interim coalition to unseat Ivanishvili’s party.

The biggest opposition party – United National Movement or UNM – is also considered the most divisive, after nine years in power before Georgian Dream.

But they and the other three groups – Coalition for Change, Strong Georgia and Gakharia for Georgia – have signed a presidential charter to back an interim technocratic government that would reverse the “Russia-style” laws and put Georgia back on track to joining the EU.

Although Georgians will be voting for the first time under a proportional representation system, seen by most parties as fairer, critics have accused Georgian Dream of holding a significant advantage in the election campaign. As in the case of Moldova, observers have highlighted a significant Russian anti-European disinformation campaign that has intensified ahead of the vote.

Since Georgia lost a short war with Russia in 2008, the two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia which make up 20% of Georgian territory have come under Russian occupation.

Ahead of the election, the Kremlin has spoken of “normalising relations” with Tbilisi.

Georgia’s government has avoided imposing sanctions on Russia, and used election posters to cast the vote as a choice between the devastation of the war in Ukraine or peace under Georgian Dream.