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Dear readers, good Sunday morning from Tbilisi!
The ruling Georgian Dream party has claimed and celebrated victory, but the opposition coalition has cried foul, citing reports of vote violence and intimidation.
In the following hours, they face the tough choice of whether and how they are going to fight, with opposition insiders telling us that mass protests could be in the cards.
In today’s edition:
How Georgian Dream now could turn into a Georgian ‘nightmare’ for Brussels
A closer look at what Commissioner-designates foreign policy priorities will be in the next five years
EU leaders’ funding calls ahead of the November Budapest summit
As Georgians face an unclear European path, Brussels is facing a wind of change and tough choices in its near neighbourhood.
Following Saturday’s parliamentary elections, the ruling Georgian Dream party scored a landslide win against the four pro-Western opposition groups, putting the country at a crossroads.
Georgia’s opposition forces must now choose between direct contestation of the vote and confrontation, likely to lead to a new wave of mass protests as seen earlier this year, or accepting the defeat and risking disbandment.
Pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili, who was heavily involved in consolidating the fractured opposition ahead of the polls and calling out Georgian Dream’s state capture, could potentially face impeachment, some observers say.
Many of those who spoke to Euractiv in Tbilisi over the past days believe the vote and the political uncertainty that now follows will derail the country’s pro-Western course.
“It’s critical for the EU to reinforce that a commitment to democratic processes is a pathway to deeper integration, keeping Georgia’s European aspirations alive even in a polarised context,” Ketevan Chachava, a fellow at the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told Euractiv in Tbilisi.
In the event of widespread irregularities or refusal to accept the vote, the EU should advocate for transparency and accountability and “consider adjusting its engagement strategy,” Chachava said.
“This should include balancing diplomatic pressure with a commitment to the European aspirations of the Georgian people, especially considering that over 85% support EU membership,” she said.
EU leaders earlier this month warned the ruling Georgian Dream government ‘not to reverse’ its current pro-European course and ensure Saturday’s polls are free and fair. With widespread allegations of voter intimidation and violence, it will be hard to argue they were.
In response to a series of Russia-style laws, the EU had drawn up a range of measures, including sanctions on top government officials, cutting financial assistance, and restricting visa-free travel for Georgian citizens, which it could take in response.
However, EU officials and diplomats said then that Brussels was hesitant to move forward with any of them before the October elections because it would risk being accused of election interference.
Several EU diplomats, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Euractiv that they would be willing to use some of those measures should Georgia’s ruling party decide to crack down on protest and civil society after the elections.
“A tight [or contested] outcome is also likely to test the strength of the EU accession pull factor as such,” Chachava told Euractiv.
Brussels might face an even bigger headache soon, as Moldova last week and Georgia this week, though in different ways, have rung alarm bells in EU corridors.
The European Commission is expected to present its so-called enlargement package, an annual assessment of exactly how far EU candidate countries and hopefuls have moved in aligning themselves with the bloc’s rules and values.
It was deliberately moved until after both polls to avoid being instrumentalised, people familiar with the matter told Euractiv earlier this month.
However, it is yet unclear whether and how much it will reflect the changed realities in both countries.
Touring the six Western Balkan hopefuls this week, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen pledged that enlargement would be high on her new term’s agenda.
Like her, incoming European Council chief Antonio Costa has how to prepare both the bloc and future members for accession D-Day, high on his to-do list.
However, the more significant task could increasingly be learning how not to lose those countries.
WIDER EUROPE
MOLDOVA VOTE | In an actual referendum a week ago, Moldovans faced the question of whether to anchor EU membership in the constitution. The razor-thin margin of the vote, overshadowed by Russian interference and vote-buying allegations, has raised worries about Moldova’s decisive parliamentary polls next year.
KOS’ PITCH | With EU accession countries increasingly under pressure from Russian interference, Enlargement Commissioner-designate Marta Kos said she would counter by creating a communications strategy on the benefits of joining the EU and work to speed up interim procedures for accession hopefuls.
EU IN THE WORLD
KALLAS’ DOCTRINE | EU’s incoming top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, said in her written answers ahead of the European Parliament confirmation hearing she intends to work towards an “economic security doctrine” aimed at protecting the bloc from “systemic rivals.” Looking at you, China.
LEBANON PLEDGE | More than €900 million in humanitarian aid and military training were pledged at the Conference on Lebanon held in Paris this week, but calls for a ceasefire keep falling on deaf ears.
DEFENCE BRIEFING
FUNDING CALLS | EU leaders are expected to urge the European Commission to come up with ideas to find cash to boost the EU defence industry’s production capacity at their informal summit in Budapest in November, according to a draft seen by Euractiv.
FLAGSHIP PROJECTS | The European Commission has also drafted a list of several flagship defence projects that could be turned into EU defence projects of common interest and benefit from the tabled €500 billion financial envelope.
MORE JETS | The UK, Italy, and Japan agreed to speed up a project to produce the next generation of fighter jets, which signals political support for the programme from the new British and Japanese governments.
TRANSATLANTIC WATCH
ŠEFČOVIČ’s CAUTION | Trade Commissioner-designate Maroš Šefčovič has struck a cautious note on the EU’s future trade relationship with the US, highlighting the importance of the transatlantic relationship while also warning that Brussels will defend its own economic interests if necessary.
Trade tensions with the US will likely persist regardless of who wins November’s presidential election, European policymakers warned this week.
PROTECTIONISM CONTINUED | Outgoing European Council chief Charles Michel has said the bloc’s future should not rely on the result of the US election, as he suggested both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris would stick to protectionist policies.
WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING
ON OUR RADAR NEXT WEEK
OSCE/ODIHR/EU elections observers to present preliminary conclusions after parliamentary elections
| Sunday, 27 October 2024 | Tbilisi, Georgia
General elections in Japa, Bulgaria, legislative elections in Lithuania, Uzbekistan
| Sunday, 27 October 2024 |
Union for the Mediterranean Ministers meet to discuss Middle East, regional cooperation
| Monday, 28 October 2024 | Barcelona, Spain
EU-Western Balkan Ministerial Forum
| Mo-Tue, 28-29 October 2024 | Budva, Montenegro
UN Security Council meeting on the Middle East
| Tuesday, 29 October 2024 | New York, United States
European Commission expected to present annual enlargement package
| Wednesday, 30 October 2024 | Brussels, Belgium
UN Security Council meets on Kosovo
| Wednesday, 30 October 2024 | New York, United States
PREVIOUS EDITIONS
[Edited by Alice Taylor-Braçe]