TBILISI — The pro-Russian Georgian Dream party is set to extend its control of parliament, according to preliminary results of the country’s October 26 elections, but the stark difference in exit polls triggered cries of a “stolen election” from the pro-Western opposition.
Georgian Dream, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, garnered just over 54 percent of the vote, with more than 99 percent of districts counted. According to the initial results published by the Central Election Commission on October 27, four opposition parties were positioned to cross the 5 percent threshold to secure seats in parliament.
Opposition forces — the Coalition for Change, Unity-To Save Georgia, Strong Georgia, and For Georgia — received just over 37 percent of the vote combined.
Fueling opposition protests in the vote’s aftermath, exit polls conducted on behalf of pro-government and opposition organizations showed significantly different results.
WATCH: Georgia’s Pro-Western opposition leaders say they will not recognize the results of the country’s parliamentary elections on October 26, claiming the pivotal vote was “stolen.”
Whereas Georgian Dream received 56 percent in the exit poll conducted by pro-government Imedi TV, it did not receive more than 42 percent in the two opposition exit polls.
Final results are expected to be announced on October 27.
According to the preliminary results, Georgian Dream would hold 89 seats in the 150-member chamber — enough to maintain its government but not enough for an absolute majority to allow it to make major constitutional changes.
The United National Movement, which leads the Unity-To Save Georgia coalition, immediately rejected the results reported by Georgia’s election authorities.
“We announce on behalf of the United National Movement that we do not accept the results of the stolen election, and we do not intend to recognize the outcome of this stolen election,” party Chairwoman Tina Bokuchava said in the early morning hours of October 27.
She called on the other opposition parties to also take a stand against the reported results, adding that “big protests” are likely later in the day.
Mamuka Khazaradze, leader of Strong Georgia, insisted that the opposition had won the election, which is crucial to the Caucasus nation’s future path in Europe.
“Congratulations on the defeat of the Russian government in Georgia!” he said following the closing of polls.
Nika Gvaramia, a member the Coalition for Change, said his grouping would not recognize the posted outcome, calling the process a “coup d’etat.”
For the first time, Georgia used a new electronic ballot-counting system — with a paper backup — allowing results to be announced just a few hours after polls closed at 8 p.m. local time. The election commission said there were only minor glitches.
Natia Yoseliani, a spokeswoman for the commission, told the media earlier that after “minor technical defects,” the vote took place “in a calm environment” at all 3,111 polling stations.
Turnout was nearly 59 percent, the commission said, the highest since 2012, when Georgian Dream came to power.
Possibly seeking to stave off street protests, Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze, a member of Georgian Dream, warned the opposition that any “illegal” actions “will be met with a very harsh reaction from the state.”
President Salome Zurabishvili, who has broken with the ruling party and supported the anti-government protest movements, said on social media that “European Georgia” opposition parties are “winning with 52 percent despite attempts to rig elections and without votes from the diaspora.”
However, Ivanishvili, the former prime minister who founded Georgian Dream, congratulated supporters following the release of the Imedi TV exit poll.
“It is rare for any party anywhere in the world to achieve such success in such a difficult situation,” he said. “I assure you, our country will achieve great success in the next four years. In four years we will do a lot, and in another four years Georgia will one of the most successful countries in the world.”
The vote was cast as a defining moment for the country, which gained its independence from Moscow three decades ago.
Georgian Dream portrayed the elections as a choice between peace and war, claiming an opposition victory would drag Georgia into another war with Russia. The two countries fought a brief war in August 2008 that cemented Russian control over part of Georgia’s territory.
The opposition framed the vote as a choice between the West and Russia and between democracy and authoritarianism, a narrative echoed by officials in the United States and Europe, who have been critical of Georgian Dream for democratic backsliding.
Tensions were high in the run-up to the vote, with Georgian Dream claiming the West was interfering in the election and the opposition accusing Russia of spreading disinformation.
Street Violence
Scuffles and accusations of fraud surfaced during the vote.
An RFE/RL correspondent reported an incident in the southern city of Marneuli, where a member of an opposition party in a voting station was allegedly beaten up by a Georgian Dream representative amid reports of ballot-stuffing.
In Rustavi, a city some 20 kilometers southeast of Tbilisi, RFE/RL correspondent Davit Mchedlidze was verbally abused and prevented from doing his job at a polling station by unidentified individuals who attempted to take his phone away.
A witness told RFE/RL that the unidentified persons were on the territory of the precinct, in violation of the law. Although the police were called, none arrived, the witness told RFE/RL.
Observers for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) who monitored the election will hold a press conference on October 27 to present their take on the fairness of the vote.
The Young Lawyers Association, a nongovernmental organization, said it observed “significant violations” of the electoral process, including physical violence, threats of violence, interference with the work of polling observers, and the violation of vote secrecy.
The group said its observers recorded about 300 “instances of irregularities.”
Russian Reaction
Georgian Dream was founded by Ivanishvili, Georgia’s richest man, who made his fortune in Russia.
After casting his ballot, Ivanishvili urged Georgians to show up and vote in large numbers, while accusing the opposition of being in the service of an unnamed “foreign state” that would drag Georgia into a war against Russia.
“We have a very simple choice: either we elect a government that will serve you, the people of Georgia, Georgian society, take care of the country, or we elect an agent of a foreign state that will only follow orders from abroad,” Ivanishvili said, adding that Georgia would then be faced with “catastrophe and ruins.”
The Kremlin has made no secret that it prefers a victory by Georgian Dream.
Margarita Simonyan, the chief editor of the Kremlin-funded news agencies RT and Sputnik, cheered the election results.
“Georgians won! Well done,” she wrote in a tweet, implying Western interference.
Opinion polls show that Georgians are broadly supportive of joining the EU and NATO but are also keen to avoid conflict with Russia and are deeply conservative on issues such as LGBT rights.
Among the controversial bills that Georgian Dream has passed is a law requiring groups that receive 20 percent or more of their funding from abroad to register as “foreign agents.”
Opponents dubbed it the “Russian law,” describing it as authoritarian and inspired by similar laws used to curb dissent in Russia.
Passage of the legislation earlier this year drew massive protests and prompted the United States to impose sanctions on several Georgians and threaten to end aid to Tbilisi.
The EU may consider temporary cancellation of its visa-free regime with Georgia if the elections are “not free and fair,” the bloc’s ambassador to Tbilisi said in September.
Other controversial legislation has clamped down on gay rights.
“This is a referendum between war and peace, between immoral propaganda and traditional values. This is a referendum between the country’s dark past and a bright future,” Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said after voting.
Opposition Groups
A new electoral rule put in place prior to the vote requires parties or coalitions to receive at least 5 percent to make it into parliament. That motivated Georgia’s opposition parties to form coalitions that have a better chance of making it over that threshold.
The four main opposition groups directed their fire at the ruling party rather than each other, having had the common goal of ending 12 years of rule by Georgian Dream and reviving Georgia’s stalled bid to join the European Union.
They had agreed that in the case of an opposition victory, they would allow Zurabishvili to form a technocratic government that would restore good relations with the West and repeal the most authoritarian laws that Georgian Dream passed in the run-up to the campaign.
Zurabishvili, whose role is largely ceremonial, has been at odds with Georgian Dream.