Last Sunday, 20 October, the citizens of the Republic of Moldova voted in favour of joining the European Union in a historic referendum by the narrowest of margins. The close outcome of the vote is due not least to the strong interference from Russia, which came to a head in the weeks leading up to the referendum. Moldova also voted on the presidency: The country’s current, pro-Western president, Maia Sandu, received around 42% of the vote. Even though this puts her far ahead of her main rival, the pro-Russian Alexandr Stoinanoglo, it is not enough for a new mandate. In order to obtain an absolute majority of votes, the candidates will have to compete against each other in a run-off election on 3 November.

With a voter turnout of 51% and a very close result, the vote demonstrates a divided society for the small country, which has been torn between the influence of Russia and the desire for European integration for years. However, the outcome of the vote not only showed support for EU accession, but also revealed the deep political tensions that characterise Moldova.

In favour of the European Union, against Russia?

Moldova’s geopolitical position between Romania and Ukraine has long made the country of around 3 million inhabitants a strategic pawn between Russia and the West. Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Moldova has been struggling to reorganise its economy and politics, while Moscow sees the country as an important part of its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Even now, the close election result is not without reason: since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Moldova has become an even greater focal point for Russian influence. Moldova’s security and intelligence service estimates that Russia has invested around 55 million US dollars in the country to influence the elections – among other things to pave the way for pro-Russian candidates to enter government and strengthen Moldova’s political division.

After the polling stations closed on Sunday, Sandu confirmed that, in addition to propaganda and lies to the Moldovan population, foreign actors, together with criminal groups, had also actively attempted to commit electoral fraud by buying votes. In the run-up to the election, pro-Russian parties called for people to vote ‘no’ or to boycott the referendum completely. Fears that the voter turnout could be below 33% and the election declared invalid were fortunately not confirmed: the approximately 1.5 million votes cast represent a voter turnout of 51%.

The diaspora as a decisive factor

Nevertheless, the vote to include EU accession as a goal in Moldova’s constitution could not have been closer. Initial reports in the evening hours of 20 October even indicated that the referendum would fail: Only the counting of votes from the diaspora, Moldovans living abroad, who make up around 15% of eligible voters, turned the tide in favour of the EU on Monday.

Moldova’s diaspora, especially in other EU countries, has already played a significant role in political decisions in Moldova for several years. The experience in EU member states and the often European-influenced perspective once again led to a decisive majority in the referendum on EU accession.

Another term in office for Sandu?

Parallel to the EU referendum, the presidential election was also on the agenda for Moldova on 20 October. The incumbent president, Maia Sandu, who is clearly in favour of a pro-EU course, received around 42% of the vote. Her main rival, the pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, received only 26%.

As none of the candidates achieved an absolute majority, Moldova will vote on the presidency in a run-off election on 3 November. In Sandu’s time in office since 2020, she has recently been increasingly confronted not only with a series of disinformation campaigns and hybrid attacks on her country, but also with domestic political crises and economic instability. This has led to a decline in Sandu’s public support, especially in the run-up to the double vote. The run-off vote will determine whether Sandu can continue her pro-European course or whether the country will fall back into political uncertainty due to increasing foreign influence, which will be further exacerbated by the geopolitical situation in the region.

Opportunities and challenges of EU accession

Now that the goal of EU accession has been integrated into Moldova’s constitution, the country faces great opportunities, but also considerable challenges. EU accession offers the prospect of economic stability and access to EU markets as well as integration into European society. This could help Moldova to overcome long-standing problems such as corruption and weaknesses in state institutions.

However, Moldova must implement extensive reforms in order to fulfil the European Union’s strict accession criteria – but the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, especially for the country’s young generation. Moldova faces another important vote on 3 November. Although the referendum has shown that Moldova’s future lies in the EU, the decisive factor will now be whether the country can overcome all challenges under the future presidency in order to pave the way to the European Union.