North Korean soldiers reportedly 50 km from Ukraine’s border

Key developments on Oct. 30:

North Korean soldiers 50 km from Ukraine’s border, including special forces, FT reportsUkraine should strike back if North Korean troops cross into its territory, Biden saysNo confidentiality between partners — Zelensky calls out White House over Tomahawk missiles leakKremlin denies Russia-Ukraine talks on halting energy strikesSouth Korea reportedly not considering direct 155 mm ammunition supplies to Ukraine

Around 3,000 North Korean troops who arrived in Kursk Oblast were housed in barracks only 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the Russia-Ukraine border, the Financial Times reported on Oct. 29, citing undisclosed Ukrainian intelligence officials.

A few hundred of those are special forces, with the rest being regular troops, one source said.

North Korea had sent troops to Russia to participate in its war against Ukraine and deployed them in Kursk Oblast, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed on Oct. 28. Recent reports suggest that a small number may already be in Ukraine.

U.S. intelligence estimated the number of troops to be around 10,000, while Ukraine put the total number at 12,000.

According to the Financial Times, Ukrainian intelligence officials are skeptical regarding the combat effectiveness of the troops and cite communication issues with their Russian counterparts as a main hurdle Moscow and Pyongyang will have to bridge.

A South Korean delegation will visit Ukraine in the second part of the week to share information on North Korea’s troops in Russia and discuss cooperation.

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has also been urging China to use its relationship with Pyongyang and apply pressure on North Korea to withdraw its troops from Ukraine’s front line, CNN reported on Oct. 29, citing a U.S. official.

North Korea’s entry into the war comes when Russia’s long and grinding campaign in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region has dramatically gained pace in recent days, with analysts saying Moscow’s forces are advancing at a pace not seen since the early months of the war.

Ukraine should strike back if North Korean troops cross into its territory, Biden says

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Oct. 29 that Kyiv should strike back at North Korean troops “if they go into Ukraine.”

A Pentagon spokesman added at a separate briefing that Moscow’s recourse to North Korean troops reflects a “dire situation” of its manpower.

“I am concerned about it, yes,” Biden answered to a question regarding their arrival, adding that Ukraine should strike back if the troops enter into Ukrainian territory, but did not elaborate further.

In a separate news briefing on Oct. 28, Pentagon spokesperson Major General Pat Ryder said a “relatively small number” of North Korean troops are already in Kursk Oblast, echoing recent comments by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who said thousands more troops are expected to head there in the coming weeks.

A South Korean delegation will visit Ukraine in the second part of the week to share information on North Korea’s troops in Russia and discuss cooperation.

Zelensky calls out White House over Tomahawk missiles leak

Ukraine’s request for Tomahawk missiles was “confidential information” between partners, President Volodymyr Zelensky complained on Oct. 30 after a leak in the U.S. media.

The New York Times reported on Oct. 29 that, according to undisclosed U.S. officials, the request for Tomahawk missiles with a range of 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles) was part of the secretive “non-nuclear deterrence package” included in Ukraine’s victory plan.

The sources told the outlet that Washington was unconvinced that Ukraine needed the weaponry and was reluctant to supply them due to their limited numbers.

“It was confidential information between Ukraine and the White House. How to understand these messages?” Zelensky said during a press briefing with journalists from Nordic countries.

“So this means (that) between partners, there is no (confidentiality).”

According to Zelensky, Ukraine requested the missiles on the condition that it would deploy them only if Russia refused to end its war and de-escalate.

“I said that this is a preventive method. I was told that it is an escalation,” Zelensky said.

Kyiv has been trying to secure additional assistance from U.S. President Joe Biden before he leaves office in January. There are fears that Washington might scale down its support if Republican nominee Donald Trump wins the election on Nov. 5.

Facing Russian military advances and increasingly uncertain Western support, Zelensky pitched the five-step victory plan, containing steps that should supposedly end the war by 2025.

Some points of the plan were met with a lukewarm response from partners, with the White House still refusing to permit long-range strikes on Russian territory and several countries resisting a NATO invitation for Ukraine.

Kremlin denies Russia-Ukraine talks on halting energy strikes

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Oct. 30 denied alleged talks with Ukraine about mutually halting strikes on energy infrastructure, the Russian state news agency TASS reported.

The denial comes after the Financial Times reported that Ukraine and Russia are planning to resume discussions about halting the strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure after the talks abruptly ended in August following Ukraine’s Kursk incursion.

“There is a lot of fake news now that has no connection to reality,” Peskov told the media, referring to the Financial Times story.

According to a senior Ukrainian official, Moscow and Kyiv have already reduced the frequency of attacks on energy infrastructure in recent weeks as part of an agreement reached by their intelligence services, Ukrainian news outlet New Voice reported on Oct. 30.

An agreement would mark the most significant de-escalation of the war since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told journalists on Oct. 21 that a willingness on Russia’s part to halt the strikes might signal a willingness to start broader peace talks.

Ukraine is bracing for its toughest winter yet, with half of its energy infrastructure in ruins after Russia launched massive campaigns against the country’s energy grid in the autumn-winter period of 2023-2023 and again in the spring of 2024.

Between March and August of this year, Russia destroyed all thermal power plants and almost all hydroelectric capacity in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sept. 25 during his speech at the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

South Korea reportedly not considering direct 155 mm ammunition supplies to Ukraine

South Korea is currently not considering directly providing 155 mm artillery shells to Ukraine, the Yonhap news agency reported on Oct. 30, citing a senior South Korean official.

Seoul has not received such a request from the Ukrainian side, and the matter is not under consideration, the source told the South Korean news agency amid speculations of South Korea’s shifting stance on the issue.

South Korea has not provided direct lethal support to Kyiv as its legislation prohibits supplying arms to a warzone, though unconfirmed reports suggested Ukraine has obtained South Korean shells indirectly via the U.S.

The country’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, said South Korea might revise its stance in the light of deepening cooperation between Russia and North Korea, namely in regards to the dispatch of North Korean troops to join the war.

A South Korean delegation is expected to visit Ukraine this week to share intelligence on North Korean soldiers and discuss mutual cooperation. Kyiv also plans to send a special envoy to South Korea, and the two countries will discuss the topic this week, Yonhap reported.

“It will take a day or two for the Ukrainian side to designate a special envoy and finalize a plan to visit and hold discussions here,” the official told the news agency.

Experts told the Kyiv Independent that South Korea could provide the most significant support to Ukraine through ammunition shells. The country fields not only 155 mm artillery but also stores 3.4 million 105 mm rounds compatible with some of Ukraine’s guns.

Ukrainian officials said that simply holding the front against Russian forces requires 75,000 shells a month. Moscow’s troops can fire several times more shells than Ukraine, with roughly half reportedly provided by North Korea.

Russia is also believed to be preparing the deployment of 12,000 North Korean troops, with at least some of them in combat roles. A small number of North Korean soldiers have already arrived in Ukraine, CNN reported on Oct. 29, citing Western intelligence.