As temperatures plummet below freezing amid the ongoing war with Russia, Ukraine faces the prospect of a bitter winter, mass displacement and longer power blackouts.
Ukraine’s electricity demand increases by 20-25% over winter, which lasts from mid-October to mid-April. But repeated Russian attacks on power plants and transmission infrastructure means that Ukraine will struggle to meet this demand.
The country already faces power outages of around 8-12 hours a day and according to a UN study on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, this could rise to 18 hours this winter season.
The European Union has vowed to help Ukraine restore a quarter, or about 4-5 GW, of its total winterneeds. It has also promised an additional €160 million ($173.7 million) on top of at least €2 billion already allocated for Ukraine’s energy security.
The bulk of that sum — €96 million — will come from profits earned on frozen Russian assets, a European Commission spokesperson told DW in a statement.
Russia Launches Widespread Attacks On Energy Grid in Kharkiv in AprilImage: Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy/Ukrinform/ABACA/IMAGO
Why is the EU helping Ukraine with its energy demands?
Russia has destroyed all of Ukraine’s thermal plants and 40% of its hydropower capacity since it invaded Ukrainein February 2022, according to local Ukrainian media. It also has control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant— the largest in Europe.
The massive scale of destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has disrupted all aspects of daily life, including the provision of medical care in hospitals, the supply of water in high rise buildings, heating in homes and online education for students whose school buildings have been bombed.
The energy crisis, and its impact on essential services, is aggravating population displacement.
Nearly 6.8 million Ukrainians have fled the country, according to the UN’s refugee agency, UNHCR, as of mid-October with the vast majority of them within Europe. Some 3.6 million are internally displaced.
The National Bank of Ukraine said, “significant destruction of the Ukrainian energy system” could encourage an additional 700,000 Ukrainians to leave the country between 2024 and 2025.
A Ukrainian serviceman of an air defense unit observes the sky for Russian aircrafts and drones in Donetsk region, Ukraine, in MarchImage: Sofiia Gatilova/REUTERS
How is the EU helping Ukraine with its electricity needs?
The EU strategy to support Ukraine on the energy frontline rests on three pillars: repair, connect and stabilize, according to the European Commission. Money from the EU is being spent on rebuilding destroyed infrastructure, repairing damaged power plants and providing smaller, more decentralized equipment such as solar panels.
“We aim to restore 2.5 GW of capacity this winter, that is approximately 15% of Ukraine’s needs by contributing financially to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund to procure equipment as well as in-kind assistance,” the European Commission said.
It is also facilitating the shipment of equipment from its eastern member states to Ukraine, since it is more compatible with existing infrastructure.
“There is a full thermal power plant that is being dismantled in Lithuania and shipped piece by piece to Ukraine with our support and then rebuilt in Ukraine,” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyenannounced in a statement.
Josep Borrell, EU’s top diplomat and commission vice president, wrote in his blogthat transfer of “a 200 MW gas turbine from Estonia” was also currently underway.
The EU’s second pillar, “connect” is about its capacity to export “around 2 GW of electricity to Ukraine, which covers roughly 12% of the country’s needs for the winter.” This is made possible by the emergency synchronization of the Ukrainian electricity grid with the continental European power system that was done just weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Von der Leyen said that the overall EU contribution is equivalent to the loss of power generation from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. “With our two pillars, repair and connect, we cover over 25% of Ukraine’s needs for the winter,” she declared.
The third pillar is about stabilizing or supporting decentralized energy production via solar panels that are harder to locate and hit and are effective in running critical infrastructure such as hospitals and schools. In addition, the EU has provided thousands of generators and transformers and assured that more help is coming.
Russia has been targetting critical energy infrastructure in UkraineImage: Pavlo Palamarchuk/ZUMAPRESS/picture alliance
More air defense systems to break the cycle of repair and destruction
But there are widespread concerns about how the EU can make sure it isn’t rebuilding Ukraine’s energy infrastructure only for it to be destroyed again.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure picked up this year. Russia carried out nine large-scale attacks between March through August, striking power generation plants, substations and electricity transmission systems with missiles and drones. The UN said 9 GW of production capacity was destroyed during these months and despite its efforts, the EU can’t make up for this enormous loss.
Borrell wrote in his blogthat since the invasion began, Russia has damaged 24.5 GW of Ukraine’s energy generation or more than two-thirds of its pre-war capacity.
“Putin is trying to break the backbone of Ukraine’s resistance and achieve through energy collapse what he cannot obtain on the battlefield,” Borrell wrote.
To make sure the EU’s repaired infrastructure isn’t destroyed by Russian bombs, he advocates for more air defense systems.
“To avoid the ‘we repair, they destroy’ scenario, air defense is key,” he noted in his blog. He has also appealed to western partners “to speed up deliveries of more air defense systems and interceptors for Ukraine.”
Energy journalist Aura Sabadus, who writes about Eastern Europe, Turkey and Ukraine for Independent Commodity Intelligence Services, backs the idea.
She told DW via email that Romania and Germany had donated Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, while Denmark had supplied F-16 combat aircraft to help protect the energy infrastructure. Such military support should continue, she added, and recommended a long-term approach that empowered Ukraine and potential investors to rebuild the energy sector.
“The EU should help develop war risk-insurance instruments to encourage potential investors to invest in Ukraine’s infrastructure,” she said.
Meanwhile Borrell has another, more controversial, suggestion to break the cycle of repair and destruction.
“I …reiterated the call to let Ukraine target airports and launchpads inside Russia with Western weapons,” he wrote, adding, “Let Ukraine strike the archers, not just the arrows!”
Edited by: Kate Hairsine