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Daily Discussion Hub for November 1, 2024
byu/PoliticsModeratorBot inpolitics

37 comments

  1. Americans—-how the flip are you guys living in such different worlds to each other, I read one thing on the politics thread- go over to the ‘conservative’ thread (to try and get some balance) and it’s the exact opposite…both are convinced the other is deluded and lying

    In the U.K. the left and right seem to at least agree on facts- just disagree on their opinions about them

    Edit: by this btw I pretty much mean ‘how do you do it-as in remaining sane’

  2. Might be a silly question here, but do they tally early votes as the ballots come in? Or is all the tallying done on Election Day?

  3. One thing I don’t get with Musk and his America PAC: Why is he the frontman of the organization? Like, the whole point of a PAC is for rich people to funnel money into politics without them being accountable or even known.

    Why doesn’t he have some puppet manage the PAC?

  4. When the first ever woman president is elected on Tuesday night you can come back to this comment.

  5. Can I just say, as a Brit, I’m wishing you all the best, but also, let me give you some cautious hope? He’s got the same vibe Sunak had in our election. He’s there campaigning, but he can see the writing on the wall.

  6. I can’t find a 2012 number for Puerto Ricans in Florida (the last time a Democrat won statewide), but going back to 2020, Biden won then 69-31, and that lost the state by 3.5 points.

    If Harris is actually hitting 85-7, as that UCF poll suggests, she might cut down into that gap a little bit. Curious what happens with the rest of the non-Cuban Hispanic vote because of MSG though, and that would be the real read on closing the gap in Florida and keeping Nevada and Arizona.

  7. He continues to craft an alternative reality that anyone with an ounce of critical thinking would easy dismiss.

    I guess anything is achievable if you lie.

  10. Guys I’m all in on this betting thing and how it is the best predictor of the election. In fact I put money on Herman Cain rising from the dead as a zombie, eating both Trump and Harris and somehow getting voted into office. It’s a long shot but I like the odds vs the payout.

  13. Mike Johnson is now saying he wants to repeal the CHIPs act.

    Of course, this would be demonstrably bad for the country for a number of reasons, but Republicans no longer have any goals upon seizing power than repealing whatever the last Democratic president passed.

  14. I knew, know, and maintain that betting odds mean nothing whatsoever, but there is definitely a primal monkey man part of my brain that is finding Harris’s numbers going up exciting.

    Granted that might just be because I’m sure the people who’ve been using that as evidence that Trump has this in the bag are getting sweaty and I enjoy them not being happy.

  15. Yougov/thetimes.

    Marist.

    Harris staffer telling WaPo their internals are showing great things with independents.

    Belated Halloween party hopping tonight.

    Today is a good fucking day.

  18. Early voting ends in a lot of states today but which states continue it through the weekend and, in some cases, through Monday too?

  20. Bold prediction (and semi hot take here),
    North Carolina will be the barometer for this election.

    I see 3 possible scenarios:

    1) Trump outright wins NC (does as well or better than he did in 2020)

    2) Kamala performs better than Biden in 2020, but still loses NC

    3) Kamala outright wins NC

    In the latter 2 scenarios, I think Kamala wins the Electoral College. Reason being, if she outperforms in NC, number will probably (hopefully) follow suit in the other swing states. Given that Biden won most swing states, Kamala should also win them.

    Again, this might just be pure copium but we shall see.

  22. [YouGov Times Swing State Polls](https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Times_SAY24_20241101.pdf)

    LV (with 3rd party) are:

    🔵 WI: Harris +4 (49/45 – RFK not listed)

    🔵 PA: Harris +3 (49/46)

    🔵 MI: Harris +3 (48/45 – RFK not listed)

    🔵 NV: Harris +1 (48/47)

    🟡 AZ: Tie (48/48)

    🔴 GA: Trump +1 (48/47)

    🔴NC: Trump +1 (49/48)

    And LV H2H:

    🔵 WI: Harris +4 (51/47)

    🔵 PA: Harris +3 (51/48)

    🔵 MI: Harris +3 (50/47)

    🔵 NV: Harris +1 (50/49)

    🔴 AZ: Trump +1 (50/49)

    🔴 GA: Trump +2 (50/48)

    🔴 NC: Trump +1 (50/49)

    —

    >**Don old is going to jail.**⭐

  23. UCF polls says Puerto Rican voters in Florida are splitting 85-8 —that would be a huge win

    Edit: I’m finding they split 69-31 last cycle

  27. Phone banked for the first time today, made it about a half hour before the anxiety got too much. Anyone else hate phone calls? How do you handle it?

  28. BLOOMING.

    [https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/](https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/)

    # Total Voted by Party Registration

    25.5% of all early voting / mail in voting are people who either voted a for a minor party, or this is their first time voting.

    At least I believe that’s what it means. Someone correct me if wrong.

    Either way, that’s a huge amount of people.

    Let’s gooooooooooo

  29. Imagine if trump wins and he comes out dressed like Kamala and does the brown face and gives his speech and does not acknowledge what he looks like. That still wouldn’t be as crazy as talking about using the military against citizens, or lying about winning an election for four straight years.

  30. Best Twitter/X follows for the next 4 days in regards to election results/.analysis?

    Thank you all! Asking for me and anyone else who is in need.

  35. A little out of the loop on this blooming thing people are posting. Just the counter to dooming right? lol

  36. Just voted in NY in a fairly purple county. In and out in 20 minutes. And I was really gonna go on Election Day…this was so much easier.

    VOTE NOW IF YOU HAVEN’T YET

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