The US election poses twin strategic dangers for Ukraine, and for European allies. A Trump administration may attempt to impose a “deal” with Russia. A Harris administration may continue to withhold the support Ukraine needs to win the war (“Ukraine and US warn Kyiv’s troops could face North Korean forces ‘in days’”, Report, October 31).
Both would repeat the mistakes of the 1938 Munich Agreement and would likely lead to a wider war.
In the first scenario, such a deal would be Donald Trump’s Munich. In the second, it would, as Europeans, be our Munich. We can — and must — prevent such an outcome for five principal reasons. First, Russia is not destined to prevail. Russia cannot sustain its war effort at current levels beyond 2025 when it will have exhausted key stocks. It is losing heavy cannon barrels and armoured vehicles at a rate far higher than it can replace.
Second, there is no credible plan for European security after any “ceasefire”. The Putin regime cannot be trusted to keep to a deal. A ceasefire would let Russia reconstitute its forces, putting us at a disadvantage.
Third, failing to win endangers all European allies. A “Minsk III” (or Munich II) agreement would signal weakness and invite coercion upon us.
Fourth, a route to Ukrainian victory still exists. Using new military technology, we can quickly leverage Europe’s industrial capacity to build the capabilities to disable Russia’s war machine.
Fifth, those who want to act, can. A coalition of willing powers could supply Ukraine with what it needs to win and provide Kyiv with real security guarantees. Where they change facts and policy on the ground, others will follow.
In this appeal, we urge willing European capitals to urgently arm themselves with a real contingency plan for any outcome of the US presidential election by collectively enhancing financial and military support to Ukraine, with the focus on a clear theory of victory.
Air Marshal (retd) Edward Stringer
Royal Air Force
Gen (retd) Michael V Hayden
Former CIA and NSA Director
The Rt Hon Sir David Lidington
Former UK Minister of State for Europe and Deputy to the Prime Minister; Chair, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
Anton Hofreiter MP
Chair of the European Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag
Professor Sir Hew Strachan
University of St Andrews and Special Advisor to the Joint Parliamentary Committee on the National Security Strategy
Lt Gen (retd) David A Deptula
United States Air Force, Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Power Studies
Maj Gen (retd) Mick Ryan AM
Former Commandant, Australian Defence College & CSIS expert
Air Marshal (retd) Greg Bagwell
Royal Air Force
Vice-Admiral (retd) Didier Piaton
French Navy; Former Deputy Commander, NATO Maritime Command, current Associate Professor
Toomas Hendrik Ilves
President of Estonia (2006-16); Professor, Tartu University
Chris Alexander PC
Former Minister for Citizenship and Immigration, Parliamentary Secretary for National Defence and Canadian Ambassador to Afghanistan
Professor Eliot Cohen
CSIS & former Counsellor of the Department of State (US)
Professor Phillips O’Brien
University of St. Andrews and CSIS
Artis Pabriks
Former Foreign and Defence Minister of Latvia
Michael Roth MP
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag and former German Secretary of State for European Affairs
Konstantin von Notz MP
Chair of the Intelligence Oversight Committee & Deputy Chair of the Green Party Parliamentary Group in the German Bundestag
Thomas Erndl MP
Vice-Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag
Sara Nanni MP
Defence Spokesperson for the Green party, German Bundestag
Sebastian Schafer MP
Budget & Defence Special Fund Committees of the German Bundestag
Edward Lucas
CEPA Senior Fellow & Columnist, The Times
Dr Anna Wieslander
Director for Northern Europe, Atlantic Council and Chair of the Board, ISDP
Nicolas Tenzer
Guest Professor at Sciences Po Paris
Prof Carlo Masala
University of the Bundeswehr, Munich
Żygimantas Pavilionis MP
Deputy Speaker of the Lithuanian Parliament
Marko Mihkelson MP
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Estonian Parliament
Benjamin Tallis
Director, Democratic Strategy Initiative, Berlin
James Rogers
Co-Founder, Council on Geostrategy
Paul Mason
Journalist and Author
Larry Pfeiffer
Former CIA Chief of Staff
Dr Rob Johnson
Former Director of the UK Secretary of State’s Office for Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC); Fellow, Pembridge College Oxford
Mike Martin MP
Member Defence Select Committee, Senior War Studies Fellow, KCL
Professor Stephen Gethins MP
University of St Andrews and UK House of Common
Derk Boswijk MP
Foreign Affairs Committee of the Parliament of the Kingdom of the Netherlands
Chantal Kopf MP
European Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag
Robin Wagener MP
Head of the German-Ukrainian Parliamentary Friendship Group
Senator Ratna Omidvar
Canadian Senate
Senator Stanley Kutcher
Independent member of the Canadian Senate
Senator Donna Dasko
Canadian Senate
Adam Kinzinger
Former member, US House of Representatives
Slawomir Debski
Former Director Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) & Visiting Professor, College of Europe, Natolin