Budapest Declaration Sparks Debate Ahead of EU Summit

Hungary’s turn as the rotating president of the Council of the European Union in the second half of this year was always bound to be interesting, given that Budapest has a habit of clashing with Brussels on a number of things — not least on Russia and Ukraine.

And it is fair to say that one of the highlights of this controversial presidency will come on November 7 as the Hungarian capital is hosting the summit of the European Political Community (EPC) — a political forum bringing together the leaders of almost all European states (bar Belarus, Russia, and the Vatican). That evening and the next day, there will be a meeting of the 27 EU heads of government to mainly discuss how to make the bloc more competitive.

There is, however, a risk that both meetings will be overshadowed by other events — most likely the U.S. elections taking place on November 5. As the presidential race is expected to be a tight affair, it’s possible the winner may still not be known by the time the leaders gather on the morning of November 7.

There are also persistent rumors in Brussels that Orban has a “big surprise” in store for his guests, so stay tuned.

Deep Background: Another issue to be discussed at the EPC, and particularly the informal EU summit, will be the October 26 Georgian parliamentary elections. They were won by the ruling Georgian Dream party and marred by irregularities. The EU is divided on how to respond (see next briefing) and whether or not the vote was free and fair.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell last week summed up the confusion himself by noting that even OSCE/ODIHR election observers hadn’t pronounced whether or not the elections were free and fair.

It will also be interesting to see who will represent Tbilisi at the EPC summit. At the last one, at Blenheim Palace in the United Kingdom in July, it was Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, whose government has been accused of becoming increasingly authoritarian.

As it is Budapest that handles the invitations, don’t be surprised if Orban wants his ally from Georgian Dream present, which could lead to plenty of uncomfortable encounters with other European leaders.

Drilling Down:

And then there is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who is poised to make his first visit to Hungary since the full-scale Russian invasion of his country in early 2022. Zelenskiy and Orban have sparred on numerous occasions, notably on Hungary’s reluctance to channel more EU funds to Kyiv and skepticism toward Ukraine’s EU and NATO membership. So it could be a very tense affair indeed.The formal part of the EPC will last just a few hours, with a short plenary dealing with security challenges. That will be followed by breakout sessions focusing on migration and economic security before concluding with a second plenary.What really matters at the summit is the chance for some diplomatic speed dating in an informal setting — something the leaders reportedly love about the EPC format. Will, for example, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan meet, either with or without outgoing European Council President Charles Michel?The migration debate could also be interesting, as the EU is becoming much more restrictive in this area. A discussion paper on migration ahead of the EPC meeting, seen by RFE/RL, notes that the priority in this area will mainly be the fight against human smuggling and trafficking. The paper also notes that “we need to be extremely vigilant not to allow people in conflict areas to become tools in the hands of hostile regimes in a hybrid war. We must be equally determined to counter the phenomenon where nonstate actors willingly or not willingly become collaborators of criminal organizations.” And the controversial idea of sending people who didn’t get asylum in the EU to so-called “return hubs” outside the EU will be discussed, with the document underlining that “we should ensure solid mechanisms for effective returns, especially for the removal of those who pose a serious threat to public order or internal security. We should also continue to explore innovative solutions as possible ways forward, including the idea of developing return hubs outside Europe.”The issue that is proving to be the most controversial ahead of the summit, however, has been a document, devised by Michel, called the Budapest Declaration On The New European Competitiveness Deal. The draft, seen by RFE/RL and which Michel is hoping the leaders will endorse, notes that the EU’s share of world gross domestic product (GDP) has halved over the last two decades, that retail prices for industrial electricity in the EU are three times higher than for the other major world economies, and that “as a share of GDP, the EU spends one-third less on research and development than other major economies in the OECD.” It’s controversial, as some EU member states think the 10-page document is too long; some are furious that it mentions the next long-term EU budget (always a fraught discussion, as it concerns who pays how much); and others are peeved that it mentions convergence on taxation, another sensitive topic. Others are not happy about what the document has left out: for example, support for nuclear energy or more European defense spending.There is a long list of complaints and it neatly illustrates the age-old Brussels problem: agreeing on a way forward on anything. As one diplomat, who wished to remain anonymous, told me, “We are in a hostile, global environment in which we rightly have identified that we need to become more competitive on every level, yet we get stuck arguing about commas and bullet points in a document few [people] will read.”

By RFE/RL

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