In this essay by Richard Baker MP, he explores the erosion of public trust in UK institutions, fueled by scandals and nationalist strategies that capitalize on distrust. Leaders like Salmond, Sturgeon, and Farage have used anti-establishment narratives to reshape political loyalties—and there’s an urgent need for UK leaders to rebuild confidence in the system itself.
Over the past twenty years the problem of trust in our politics has predominantly focused on events in our UK institutions. At various times Parliament, the Crown and the UK government have all been rocked by events and scandals which have driven down levels of trust in our governing institutions so that they are now at persistently low levels.
These acts of self-harm have undoubtedly impacted on trust in our political system – but they are not the only factor. It is important to recognise that it is no coincidence that falling confidence in our political institutions has come at a time of febrile debate on the future of the UK constitution. If victory is to be won in the “fight for trust” which the Prime Minister has set out as the “defining battle of our political era”, it will be vital to restore faith in the concept of the UK itself as a political structure which can secure mutual benefit for all our nations and regions.
Not all of the attacks on our political system are external. Some UK politicians have sought to derive political advantage in driving down trust in the political ‘establishment’, aided by an age of social media where conspiracy is commonplace in online comment. The “Fight for Trust” report highlights the actions of Michael Gove and Liz Truss in seeking to blame a ‘public sector elite’ or an “establishment backlash” for the damage caused by their ill-judged right wing policy experimentation.
However, Gove and Truss are amateurs when it comes to laying the blame for every ill at the doors of our established political structures. The most effective politicians in deploying these arguments have come from Britain’s nationalist parties. Alex Salmond’s sudden death has come as a huge shock not only in Scotland but across UK politics because of his success as a disruptor in our political system. In 2017, Salmond addressed an independence rally in Glasgow with these words:
“I’ve never seen the British state in a state of more disorientation and chaos. We’re Johnny no mates in Europe, not a single friend across the continent. The structures of Westminster politics are decaying before our eyes. So this is a matter not just of our strength but their weakness.”
This language of blaming Westminster for every problem in Scotland, while claiming credit in Government for everything perceived as popular, was a highly effective strategy for the SNP – not only for Salmond, but also his successor Sturgeon. The raison d’etre for the SNP is to destroy the British state, and crucial to that goal is eroding confidence in its political institutions.
Westminster is described by SNP politicians as outdated, corrupt and distant from the real needs of Scots. The UK government is accused of draining Scotland of its oil and gas profits to fritter away in other parts of the country. The BBC is portrayed as biased towards an English audience.
This strategy was turbo-charged by the 2014 independence referendum. While the result was in reality a significant majority to remain in the UK in the context of a two question referendum, its effect was to mobilise the 45% of those who had voted to leave the UK into higher levels of political participation, motivated by their own belief that the UK political institutions representing them had no credibility.
The turnout for the independence referendum of 2014 was 84.6%, the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the January 1910 general election. It was 10 points higher than the turnout for the EU referendum two years later. In the following General Elections participation remained high, and turnout in the 2015 General Election in Scotland was 71%, five points higher than across the rest of the UK.
This high level of electoral participation secured electoral dividends for the SNP, and their strategy of driving down confidence in UK political institutions also brought benefits to their reputation in government. The 2019/2020 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey showed that 61% of people trusted the Scottish Government to work in Scotland’s best interests, compared with a record low of 15% for the UK Government. 73% of people thought the Scottish Government ought to have the most influence over how the country is run, compared with 15% for the UK Government.
If the Prime Minister and the UK Government are to achieve the vital goal which our party has set out to win the battle for trust, it is important to recognise this strategy successfully deployed by nationalists in Scotland is not uniquely a Scottish problem. Indeed, in terms of deploying this approach to secure their prime political outcome of constitutional change, Nigel Farage and the Vote Leave campaign ultimately succeeded where Salmond, Sturgeon and the SNP failed. The goal was different, but the strategy the same. To persuade people to “take back control,” the focus of their political argument was to destroy trust in EU political institutions and any sense there was benefit for the UK in participating in them.
It has often been said in Scottish politics that once the SNP achieve their dream of independence they will disband, but the example of Nigel Farage and Reform is that even when that goal has been secured, nationalist grievance will find another way to coalesce support. Again, the argument is built on attacking the credibility of others and seeking to destroy trust – the Tories can’t be trusted to deliver on the true potential of Brexit, and Labour can’t be trusted because they actually want to build more positive relationships with European counterparts.
Once again, this strategy has met with success – Reform won five seats at the election and 14.3% of the vote. While they secured a lower vote share in Scotland, at 7%, they are now polling around 12% and are on track to secure seats at Holyrood in the 2026 election.
Responding to this trend in politics will be essential in restoring faith in our political system. Renewing confidence in our political system by delivering on election promises, showing government can be an effective force for progressive change and restoring faith in the notion of political service will be vital but not enough on their own to win the fight for trust. This will also require defending our institutions against attacks from those with a vested interest in undermining their reputation.
However, while Reform might take heart from the example of the SNP, it is also the case that recent events in Scottish politics shows their success is by no means inevitable. At the General Election in July, Scottish Labour secured 37 seats at Westminster compared with just one in 2019, while the SNP fell from 48 to just 9.
Labour’s highly effective message of the “the change our country needs” resonated in Scotland because it is now trust in the SNP which has collapsed. They are no longer trusted to support public services and to grow Scottish industry. They have relentlessly focused on the independence question when more and more Scots, even many of those who voted Yes in 2014, see this proposition as increasingly unrealistic or at the very least not a priority.
The SNP has not only been perceived as governing badly, but it is mired in scandal. Nicola Sturgeon and her husband Peter Murrell have faced the consequences of a police investigation into allegations of embezzlement. The images of the tent in the garden of their family home and the motorhome which has been at the centre of the allegations are now seared onto the collective Scottish political consciousness.
The Scottish election result is not the only indicator of the growing problem of trust in the political system in Scotland. The Scottish Social Attitudes Survey for 2023 has fallen to the lowest level since the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999, falling from 61% in 2019 to 47% in 2023.
For Labour to challenge this disillusion in Scottish politics, to secure not only a plurality of votes in 2026 but turn the tide on voter disengagement, will require a repeat of the effective collaboration between Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer which was central to winning in 2024.