Where is the war in Ukraine heading? | BBC Newsnight

Where is the war in Ukraine heading? | BBC Newsnight

It was not fireworks that greeted the New Year in Ukraine but a barrage of deadly missiles and drones the war may not be in the headlines as much as it once was but it continues so as we enter 2024 where do things stand the front lines may not be moving

But that doesn’t mean we have reached a stalemate the level of attrition and the level or speed of which both sides can regenerate combat power offensive combat power will set the conditions for later in 2024 so both sides are in a race trying to inflict the most damage or attrition possible while regenerating

Their own forces and whoever wins that process is going to have a substantial Advantage later in the conflict and so this isn’t just because there isn’t movement doesn’t thing mean things aren’t changing 2023 three saw Ukraine launch a long awaited counter offensive there had been talk of cutting off

Crimea in the end the front lines barely moved now it’s the Russians who are on the offensive what we see here now that they are preparing to attack on the again at least on at least three directions again um that’s har that’s um the north of Ukraine again that would be

CH Su that’s on the way to cave and the south of Ukraine I mean M Russia has stepped up its aerial bombardment of Ukraine in recent days launching hundreds of drone and missile attacks across the country that’s a campaign which is aimed at degrading the Ukrainian will and capacity to resist the second line of effort is to run down the magazines of air defense

Interceptors because if the Russians can uh exhaust the available air defenses then the Russian Air Force will gain access to medium altitude over the front line and that will translate into a tactical advantage on the battlefield for Ukraine the Big Hope has always been the arrival of Western Jets and it seems

Us made f-16s will soon be in the skies they are a tmic issue but how much of an impact will they really have f-16s would provide valuable air cover to troops on the ground they would also give the ukrainians much more range in terms of going farther a field than striking at

Russian military targets they have great defensive capability as well so there there’s a lot that they can do with the f-16s once they have them but they will not be a silver bullet victory in this war is about more than what happens on the battlef Field this is really a battle of societies of their political will and their industrial capacity Ukraine is making considerable efforts to expand production domestically and that is bearing fruit uh but Ukraine does not control the financing or have access to the supply chains to be able to massively ramp up production um Russia

On the other hand is not under the same kind of missile threat it’s less constrained uh it has substantially more resources and it does have control of a lot of the supply chains involved and so the Russians have moved onto a war footing in their defense industry and are rapidly accelerating production well

Mr President welcome back left on its own Ukraine would not win this war it’s relied on the significant support of its allies but distracted by crises elsewhere in the world there is a fear the West resol may be wavering but the loss of Ukraine that would be the

Historical the huge historical EU and our partners mistake uh if if they um stop um to support the Russians have decided that they are able to Outlast the West’s political will and therefore they think they can win and the fact that they think they can win means that

They are prepared to persist because they think that their prospects will improve over time now whether they’re correct in those assessments is up to us

As Ukraine entered 2024, Russia launched one of its heaviest drone and missile attacks since the start of its full-scale invasion. Ukraine retaliated with strikes of its own, targeting the city of Belgorod.

With the new year bringing further violence, BBC Newsnight’s Joe Inwood looks at what might happen in the conflict in 2024.

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