Iran: At least 103 people killed in explosions near general’s tomb

Iran: At least 103 people killed in explosions near general’s tomb

The targeting of a senior Hamas leader in Lebanon yesterday was precise was clinical what happened in Iran today was anything but the sound of twin explosions in the Iranian city of Karman large crowds had gathered to Mark the fourth anniversary of the death of one of Iran’s most powerful men the bombs went off near the cemetery where he’s buried over a 100 people died dozens were injured bodies lying on graves the crowds were marking the death of General Kasam sulamani killed by an

American drone strike in 2020 he was the architect of Iran’s Regional policy from supporting Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon the Iranians have described what happened as a terrorist act with the war in Gaza a region teetering on the edge of allout conflict and now this Iran

Wants to do the opposite of joining the dot I think the Iranians are going to be very cautious in their response their immediate attribution uh to to terrorism uh perhaps um Isis or or perhaps internally um opposition groups is is their strategy to direct uh attention away from the regional connectivity and

Also uh to delay uh Iran’s decision in uh entering a broader regional conflict why is Iran so reticent to go down that road well Iran is um I think often misunderstood the assumption is because Iran backs so many uh Regional groups around Israel’s borders and Iran uses

Those groups as a tool of deterrence um the assumption is that Iran too is willing to militarily pile into a conflict um and for decades now we actually have not seen Iran p to any military Conflict that’s not to say there’s no circumstance in which Iran wouldn’t Pile in or give the green light for Hezbollah in Lebanon who they sponsor to do so today hezbollah’s leader Hass Nala gave a speech it was full of fire and fury but as of yet signifying nothing new militarily which is important

Because it comes a day after the killing of Salah alarri one of hamas’s most senior leaders he was targeted by what’s assumed to have been an Israeli drone in hezbollah’s backyard a southern suburb of Beirut alarri was hezbollah’s Point person in Hamas it was telling therefore that there was little new in Nala’s

Speech nestala will be cautious yet again Lebanon is in a precarious political and economic uh position that hasn’t changed in fact it’s perhaps been made worse since October 7th um and I think that again uh Hassan Nella isn’t going to risk his leadership isn’t going to risk hezbollah’s uh capital and

Position at this time flares over Gaza tonight for the moment it appears self-preservation is keeping a lid on this becoming Regional the problem comes When leaders judge that allout conflict is the only way they’ll survive well let’s talk now to Dr Samuel Romani from the Royal United Services Institute

The defense and security Think Tank Dr Samuel ramani who do you think was to blame for these attacks in Iran Israel or someone else well I think that there’s not really clear evidence that Israel was directly involved in this attack I think the initial uh intelligence assessment that’s coming

Through from the United States and coming from some others that is most likely Isis of some variety that was involved in it but it’s too early to tell definitively who was responsible I mean whatever whoever was responsible it’s clear that the tensions have been ratcheted up um is a kind of escalation

Of the war now inevitable or do you think that Iran and Hezbollah are very reluctant to Pile in well I think that not really very much has changed in spite of the death of Sal aruri and this uh killings in Iran which are inevitably going to increase tensions I think that

Both Hezbollah and Iran are going to avoid some kind of a drastic escalation if you look at Hass nella’s speech earlier today he was talking about the possibility of a War where there’s no rules and no limits but he also was saying that the Israelis have suffered uh potentially thousands of deaths and

Injuries in the Lebanese border as a result of the current clashes so he’s basically trying to say that the current clashes are enough of a war to kind of keep this resistance going so I think that both sides are going to be cautious about a big escalation so so do you

Think he pulled his punches rather in that speech you know we’d sort of built it up that we were expecting you know the same old rhetoric but perhaps some sort of hinted action there was none well was the seem as what happened during his last major address I mean

Before that there was a lot of expectation that uh nazarella was unilaterally going to uh declare the opening of a second front but he distanced himself that time from hamas’s actions on October 7th calling them purely a Palestinian Affair and directed much of his Venom and animosity at the

United States I think that the same thing is going to happen this time he is making another speech on Friday though and we need to watch for what his reaction to Israel strikes on beut will be also well let’s look at Israel’s conduct because you know it’s clear

Isn’t it given the US has repeatedly warned against taking the war to Lebanon um you know or Hezbollah I should say I mean they uh if they did as suspected Target uh the Hamas Deputy leader it’s clear that they’re ignoring us calls for restraint aren’t they well I mean this

Is a little bit of a gray Zone because I think in the first week of the war it was reported that the United States urged nanyu not to open a second front by targeting hezbollah’s military capabilities in Lebanon but the US Red Line the US restriction on the Israelis

Targeting Hamas leaders outside of the Gaza Strip was a lot less clear I mean obviously I don’t think that the the Americans would be very thrilled if the Israelis went after the Hamas leadership in Qatar because Qatar is playing an important diplomatic role with the hostages in terms of De escalating this

But Hamas leaders in Lebanon are most likely considered by the Israelis to be fair game and they didn’t expect much of an isra American backlash and that’s probably why s aluri was targeted it’s also important to keep in mind that alarri has been a long time adversary of

The United States and the US has listed him as a terrorist 2015 I clearly everyone’s hoping that this war doesn’t escalate what are the consequences if it does well I mean there’s many consequences that could result from a major escalation obviously one would be the destruction of lebanon’s economy and

Position even more so than it is now another would be obviously an intensification of strikes on American bases in Iraq and Syria which would lead to the Americans most likely having to strike ground targets inside Iran and also a risk to Maritime shipping we already saw a Danish Shipping Company Mar

Pullback trade again on the Red Sea many shipping companies are starting to use the ca Good Hope as a potential alternative to this us Canal the hoodies have been attacking Maritime assets they haven’t really been killing however uh sh American shippers or anything like this and that could lead to an

Escalation on the maritime front so I think there’ll be many many different layers of escalation here

More than a hundred people were killed and scores of others were injured when two explosions went off at a memorial ceremony for a prominent Iranian general in the southern city of Kerman.

No group has said it carried out the attack – as Iran’s supreme leader warned there would be a “harsh response” to what he called a “terrorist attack”.

Warning: Distressing images.