Is the Russia-Ukraine war really in stalemate? | Ukraine: The Latest | Pod

Is the Russia-Ukraine war really in stalemate? | Ukraine: The Latest | Pod

I’m David nolles and this is Ukraine the latest today we bring you the latest news from across Ukraine update on the Diplomatic and political news across Europe and Francis dley discusses an important article from russy’s Jack Watling on the state of the war at the start of 2024 bravery takes you through

The most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory if we give president zinski the tools the ukrainians will finish the job Slava ukraini nobody’s going to break us we’re strong we’re ukrainians every weekday afternoon we sit down with leading journalists from the telegraphs London Newsroom and our

Team is reporting on the ground to bring you the latest news and analysis on the war in Ukraine it’s Thursday the 4th of January 1 year and 314 days since the fullscale invasion began and today I’m joined by ass assistant comment editor Francis sternley and Brussels correspondent Joe

BS just a quick note to our regular listeners our associate editor Dom Nichols is away this week don’t worry we haven’t dropped him in his absence I started by summing up the latest news from Ukraine let’s actually start more than a thousand miles behind Russian lines deep in Russia where Ukrainian sabur have

Blown up a Russian s34 fighter jet Ukraine’s milit intelligence that’s the HR has released a video showing a sabur setting a Russian fighter jet a light citing a source in the H Uka Pravda Ukrainian newspaper reported that the attack took place at the shagal Airfield in cheliabinsk an industrial city to the

East of the eural mountains in an H operation we can confirm that the enemy aircraft has been completely burnt out the source was quoted as saying in ukran praa just um some context there cheliabinsk is just a bit more than 1,000 miles to the east of the easternmost point of the current front

Line which is a salent around the city of cesk in donet and the alleged Ukrainian attack there would demonstrate uh repeatedly demonstrate in fact the impressive reach and capabilities of Ukrainian operatives Far Far Behind the front lines but back to the front lines in Ukraine according to the institute

For the study of War that’s the us-based think tank Russia has made a confirmed Advan near the contested Ukrainian city of aiva um they say that they have geolocated footage showing moscow’s forces pushing back the Ukrainian Army there just to remind ourselves avd is a partially encircled industrial city in

Eastern Ukraine that’s been the focus of Russian attacks in recent months in a bid to take a major settlement for the first time since bmot in May the isw also said that Russian soldiers have advanced uh to the Southwest City of advanced in the southwest of donet city

And Russian bloggers have also claimed to have advanced near bakut in recent days but these reports have not yet been confirmed away from the front lines then uh Russia’s over overnight attacks on Ukraine were far more muted last night than in recent days just three missile attacks and two drones were reported the

Worst damage was reported in kak hovo donet where military Governor Vadim fashin said Russian Rockets destroyed a school nursery and health center but caused luckily no casualties late on Wednesday two s300 missile attacks struck harv Governor o sov said there were no deaths or injuries and the only

Damage was to a residential building where the windows were blown out and just finally on this the Ukrainian Armed Forces also said it shot down two Shahid drones that were launched over the Western kin ski region there’s also been shelling across the lines two men have been injured in the denitra city of

Nikopol reg Regional Governor sir lisak has said uh both with leg injuries one serious a Russian missile strike also on kin yski in the central kavad region has killed one civilian and injured at least others and we understand that the uh the injury toll there is going up away from

From uh the Frontline updates shellings and Strikes there’s been a very important story uh Russia and Ukraine have exchanged hundreds of prisoners of war in the biggest single release of captives since the start of the fullscale invasion Ukrainian authorities said that 230 Ukrainian prison of War returned home on Wednesday in the first

Exchange in almost 5 months Russia’s defense Ministry said that 248 Russian servicemen had been freed under the deal sponsored by the United Arab Emirates the uae’s foreign Ministry attributed the successful swap to the quote strong friendly relations between the UAE and both the Russian Federation and the Republic of Ukraine which were supported

By sustained calls at the highest levels just to remind ourselves again the UAE has maintained close economic ties with Moscow despite Western sanctions dimitro linet Ukraine’s human rights Ombudsman said that it was the 49th prisoner exchange during the war some of the details then on who was released um some

Of the Ukrainian soldiers had been held since 2022 among those released were people who’d fought in the Milestone battles for Ukraine’s snake island and also in the siege of marup Russian officials offered no details on their side of the exchange just finally then before we go to Joe Barnes uh Ukraine

Plans to expand its defense industry by 500% in 2024 this is coming from uh Ukraine’s primee Minister Dennis shim shial who said that the ambitious goal for the current year is a six-fold in increase this means more drones more shell more ammunition and armored vehicles for our military he added that

The industry’s arms industry production capacity trebled in 2023 adding drones shells ammunition Vehicles all of which would be its focus that’s the latest then from the strikes shellings and front lines Joe um what have you been looking at today okay folks um there’s a few interesting stories out there but

I’ll start with and you’ll remember us speaking about this recently um when Ukraine’s largest mobile network kear was basically down for a few days and actually um the repercussions were quite were great lots of soldiers communicate using their mobile phones um which isn’t the wisest but they do um it cut my

Communications with a few people I speak to in Ukraine every day um but there’s been some more information out on how Russian hackers managed to knock out keev star um in December so and that’s according to a Ukrainian spy Chief Elia vuk who is head of cyber security Ukraine’s SP Security

Services um he said he was pretty sure the attack on kear was carried out by sandworm which is a Russian military intelligence cyber warfare unit a group called Sonet seop seoc believed um by the sbu to be affiliated with sorm said it was responsible for the attack uh vuk

Said the attack wiped out almost everything and was one of the first times a sty attack completely destroyed the core of a telecom’s operator he added that the hackers were lightly need to be able to steal personal information understand the locations of phones intercept text messages and perhaps

Still telegram accounts um this actually interesting back when I was looking at electronic warfare um I was looking at how Russia was using and intercepting mobile phone signals that were controlling drones to basically to dictate and coordinate counter battery fire so it’s interesting that that’s possibly what the plot was all about um

Sort of getting into mobile networks and stealing information um let’s go to um financial aid and Dennis shimal the Ukrainian prime minister has said Ukraine will need more than 29 billion pounds in Western financial aid in 2024 that’s 37 billion do um so this year this year’s it needs exceed 37 billion

He told a government meeting we count on regular stable and timely assistance from partners he said that the EU the United States the international monetary fund Japan Canada Britain and the World Bank were ke’s Main Financial supporters since beginning of the war Ukraine’s allies and multilateral organizations have pledged to almost

220 billion that’s $278 billion in Aid of which £11 billion p153 billion is financial support um you’ll know that the EU has a 50 billion Euro package currently delayed because of a Hungarian veto uh EU leaders going to try and unblock that again on the 1st of February when they

Meet in Brussels for an emergency Summit but um that it looked unlikely um we’ve reported on the EU working on a sort of a 20 billion workaround which will um so there 20 about well what is it about 17 billion pounds um which they hope to work on which will

Be patiently provide Ukraine with that money this year um while 50 billion is over four years and that’s if Hungary continues to oppose the 50 billion so yeah interesting times so meanwhile polish Farmers have resumed their blockade of the Meda border crossing with Ukraine that’s the largest sort of border crossing most

Active um that’s also being blockaded By Truckers the so farmers are demanding new prime minister Donald Tusk give them a signed assurance that he will bring in increased corn subsidies and lower taxes so a lot of the farmers are upset with the fact that basically Ukrainian grains and other products are given free

Entrance into the EU which often don’t move Beyond Poland um or the Border countries because it’s basically so costly to um to transport and basically it’s cheaper than domestically made stuff in the EU um so blockade started in November it was lifted on December 24th after a meeting with agricultural Minister

Shor sorry for his pronunciation in which um he promised to accept their demands but it looks like that protest has basically restarted um so we have some news back in uh in Ukraine in the Russian held city of melitopol um Russia has sent 60,000 of its own citizens to live in

Occupied Milito uh the city’s exiled mayor said so Ivan federov 50% of the current residents in the city are now Russian because of policies which he said were intensively changing the ethnic composition of the city initially they impoverished the residents so this is Ivan Federal writing on telegram now

Through the occupation employment center they offer work in Russia for the unemployed meanwhile they import um tourists using sort of bunny quotations from the Russian Federation to Temporary occupied territories the federov added when Mia pole residents go out in the street they don’t see familiar faces the there are subhumans from Russia all

Around so it’s part of the sort of the idea of russify occupied territories Mel PO is being occupied richly since the start of the start of the force go invasion in 2020 lots of stories often come out of how residents are given or forc to take up Russian passports take Russian

Lessons Russian mandated education etc etc okay also in Ukraine a Ukrainian court has sentenced a man who run a separatist torture chamber in occupied detet to 15 years in prison uh so the man who is named as Dennis kavosi headed the is sorry again pronunciation is iselia jail at a

Factory in detet city between 2015 and 2018 journalist activist and prisoners of War were detained and tortured at the facility he was arrested in keev in November 21 and has since been convicted of terrorism cruel treatment of prisoners and participation in an illegal armed group that would probably

Be the detet separatist andet People’s Republic um the man must also pay 8,300 in Damages and 1,980 in civil claims bought by two former prisoners it’s sort of interesting how Ukraine is looking to challenge people that were involved in the septic movements that sort of date back to the 2014 uh

Invasion of the dbass area um and then also just one last update from from the Russian energy giant gazprom which has announced a new daily record for the amount of gas supplied to China and that says Vladimir Putin basically seeks to prop up his wartime economy so gazprom

The state controlled uh energy giant has not put a figure on The Daily Supply amount uh but said exports for 2023 via the power of Siberia pipeline amounted to 22.7 billion cubic meters which is also a record uh this was about 1.5 times more than the 15.4 billion cubic uh

Centimeters or cubic meters sorry supplied in 2022 for comparison the UK consumes about 76 billion cubic meters of gas per year Russia is basically exporting lot to China to make up for basically a loss of sales in Europe and the West um what’s interesting is often

These exports are sold at a sort of a lower rate so actually it benefits China to basically consume Russian gas at a cheaper rate that it’s normally sold out so yeah all of the um all of the ways Russia is looking to circumvent sanctions um put on it by Europe and

Other Western governments for the US UK etc etc um by Yeah by looking for new markets abroad and basically yeah moving the product elsewhere rather than its traditional markets over the last 20 30 40 years and I’ll stop there thank you very much Joe for all of that Francis

Can I come to you um the last few days you’ve been taking a bit more of a removed analytical approach to the news standing back slightly and giving your thoughts on the more General strategic situation military situation Etc um what have you been looking at for us today

Well well yes thank you David as you say I started this process of trying to summarize the Strategic picture by reflecting on the respective positions of the core participants most significantly zinsky and Putin yesterday as we begin 2024 so I recommend listening to that if you want to hear

The political positioning of the Ukrainian and Russian presidents at this moment but today I want to look more deeply at the military situation zooming out and considering the battlefields themselves in the abstract and a helpful starting point is an excellent new piece by Jack Watling senior research fellow

At the Royal United Services Institute in foreign affairs which Begins by critiquing The Narrative that has formed in recent months in a similar manner that Professor Timothy Snider did in our interview with him last year so Mr Watling writes since the failure of offensives in 2023 by both Ukraine and

Russia a narrative is coalescing that the war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate the perception of an indefinite but static conflict is causing a sense of fatigue in the capitals of Ukraine’s Partners this perception however is deeply flawed both Moscow and keev are in a race to rebuild

Offensive combat power while the first half of 2024 may bring few changes in control of Ukrainian territory the material personal training and casualties that each size AC Cruise in the next few months will determine the long-term trajectory of this conflict the West in fact faces a crucial choice

Right now support Ukraine so that its leaders can defend their territory and prepare for a 2025 offensive or seed an irrecoverable advantage to Russia he goes on uncertainty about the long-term provision of Aid to Ukraine risks not only giving Russia advantages on the battlefield but also emboldening Moscow

Further what the US and Europe do over the next 6 months will determine one of two Futures in one Ukraine can build up its forces to renew offensive operations and degrade Russian military strength to the degree that keev can enter negotiations with the leverage to impose

A lasting peace in the other a shortage of supplies and trained Personnel will mire Ukraine in an attritional struggle that will leave it exhausted and facing eventual subjugation Ukraine’s International Partners must remember that the first outcome is desirable not only to ukrainians it is necessary to protect the international Norm that states do

Not change their borders by force a mobilized and emboldened Russia would pose a sustained threat to Nato requiring the US to indefinitely underwrite deterrence in Europe that would constrain the US’s capability to project force in the Indo Pacific and substantially increase the danger of conflict over Taiwan now just to break momentarily

From Mr watling’s piece it is worth recalling what Poland said back in December namely that unless Russia is checked now it’s Grand mobilization would enable it to threaten NATO’s Eastern flank within 3 years and I know some people listen to that and think but Russia would never break Article 5 so

What difference does it make and whilst I agree that’s logical vitally I think the implications of a fully mobilized threatening Russia for worldwide security more generally is underappreciated and that’s what I think Mr wling is getting at it would necessitate enormous resources to be deployed in Eastern Europe to act as a

Deterrent resoures which may be more vital in the indopacific or the Middle East if things were to escalate there over the coming year or two so a stronger Russia is not in NATO’s interests but back to Jack wling if the Ukrainian military’s 2023 offensive had gone Accord according to

Plan its forces would have punched through Russia’s so-called sovian line in zapia and liberated melitopol severing the Roads connecting Russia to Crimea combined with Ukrainian Naval operations that would have put Crimea Under Siege this objective was ambitious but achievable the foremost reason it failed was that the Ukrainian units

Assigned to lead the offensive had insufficient time to train and prepare Ukrainian Personnel also had too little opportunity to CR train collectively the number of troops deployed is not the only thing that matters in war the potency of an Army’s Manpower is a function of how well small units

Coordinate even while dispersed across a broad area Ukraine’s geography demands especially skilled coordination because tree lines prevent units from being able to see each other the threat of artillery further drives dispersion so that companies are often spread over nearly 2 miles of front the terrain of zapia particularly encourages commanders

To Fight 2 miles of front and and to fight in isolated companies in this Geographic context a cap a capacity to synchronize activity Beyond each unit’s line of sight is needed so units can support one another and exploit each other’s gains during the 2023 offensive Ukrainian operations were largely fought

By pairs of companies under the close management of an understaffed Brigade Command Post the result was that Ukrainian soldiers often succeeded in taking enemy positions but were rarely able to exploit the breaches they made or to quickly reinforce their gains instead they had to stop and plan giving Russian forces time to

Reset now again just as an aside this tallies with our interviews with people on the podcast over the last year who were quite critical of the NATO provided training and some of the gaps that it left which Mr wling writes about out but going back to him better training would

Not diminish ke’s need for material Ukrainian military is likely to face significant equipment shortages over the coming year at the height of its 2023 offensive Ukraine was firing up to 7,000 artillery rounds per day accounting up to 80% of Russia’s combat losses by the end of 2023 however

Ukrainian forces were firing closer to 2,000 rounds per day Russia’s artillery capability meanwhile has turned a corner with Russian forces now firing up to to around 10,000 rounds per day unless Ukraine can again create localized conditions of artillery superiority many new offensive operations will result in unsustainable losses of Ukrainian

Troops the challenge for Ukraine is that even while it maintains a defensive posture it must continue to mount localized offensives if Russia sustains fewer losses the capabilities of its forces in the field will improve MOS would also be able to divert experienced troops to train recruits potentially

Allowing it to open new offensive axes in the second half of 2024 Russian forces could also concentrate on sectors where they can establish a more favorable Battlefield geometry and inflict heavier losses on Ukraine if Ukraine leaves large sanctions of the front quiet Russian forces may also be able to significantly

Expand their fortifications making any future Ukrainian offensive operations harder to carry out even while it holds a defensive posture the Ukrainian military must seek to maximize Russia’s rate of attrition a realistic plan would involve resourcing ke to maintain a defensive posture throughout most of 2024 while units are trained and equipped to mount

Offensive operations in 2025 beyond the certainty this plan would offer Ukraine generals it would also signal to the Kremlin that it cannot counter winning a yearslong war of attrition against an increasingly thinly resourced Ukraine a US commitment to supporting Ukraine through 2024 would also shift European allies incentives towards investing more deeply in

Increasing the capacity of their weapons Industries reducing the burden on the us through 2025 Mr wling concludes some leaders in Western capitals now argue that it is time to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine this line of thinking however misses both the the extent of Russia’s goals

And what the kremin would realistically offer Moscow is not interested in simply seizing some Ukrainian territory Putin has repeatedly stated that he wants to change the logic of the International System the US and its allies face a choice they can either make an immediate plan to bolster the training they

Provide to the Ukrainian military clarify to their public and to Ukraine that the October 2024 deadline to liberate territory must be extended and underwrite Ukraine’s material needs through 2025 or they can continue to falsely believe the war is an EST stalemate dithering and seeding the advantage to Russia this would be a

Terrible mistake in addition to expanding its Partnerships to Africa Russia is strengthening its collaboration with China Iran and North Korea and if a loss in Ukraine ends up demonstrating that the West cannot meet a single challenge to the world’s security architecture its adversaries will hardly believe it can deal with multiple crises at

Once now there is more detail David in the original piece which we’ll include in the description for the episode but that’s the essence of it interestingly perhaps in contrast to some analysts including Commander zi himself it doesn’t give extensive emphasis on the importance of new Weaponry such as Jets

And missiles but rather it focuses on the wider logistical and political concerns and I think that’s one for us all to ponder in the weeks and months ahead thanks so much Francis and as as you said it’s a really great piece there from Jack wling and we will include it

In the show notes so do go and look at the whole thing there and Francis you speak about the importance of the US defense posture there and I see Ukraine’s Ukraine’s foreign minister has made some interesting remarks about the prospects of a trump Victory what did he

Say and what do you read into it sure I’ll just be very brief so Demitri kuler has insisted that the country can work with Donald Trump if he becomes the next American president so I’ll quote from him he says Trump is known for his I would say Ultra charismatic actions his

Reputation and his phrases but who sold the first American weapon to Ukraine president Trump sent us javelins who launched the program of free delivery of the first Naval vessels The Islander Mark six boats to Ukraine Trump who fought the northstream 2 project and impose sanctions on the well-known but

Already forgotten Fortuna ship that laid this pipeline Trump that’s why Trump is a person you can work with you just need to know how to work with him I was speculating last year on the podcast that we might start seeing the ukrainians making overtures to that they

Would be able to work with Trump they have little Choice after all but the framing of it is interesting I think as it tallies with what a lot of Ukraine Ians do say privately that they actually owe more to Donald Trump than many in the west understand perhaps kba is right

And if the ukrainians play to Mr Trump’s ego they might well be able to talk him round or at least to a more favorable Ukrainian position there is certainly more extensive bipartisan support than one might expect in The Wider Republican party fraternity something we’ve discussed at length following our trip

To the United States back in September but of course it would be far from an ideal circumstance for key for all of the reasons previously discussed but I do think the timing of this is quite interesting David as we start 2024 thank you very much Francis and Joe

Let’s move to our final thoughts then uh Joe buns would you like to go first yeah um I just want to look at a interesting sort of story that it’s a few days old now but I I I kind of overlooked it that um and it’s all part of this idea where

We’re talking about this idea that Europe has to do more to bolster its defense industrial capacities uh build more shells to not only fuel Ukraine’s defense and offensives but also to basically replenish dwindled stock piles and um it looks like Denmark is uh trying to make that um change it’s um

Basically reversed a closure of an old ammunition Factory uh called the CR cron or kton which basically translates to gun aler um and I think we’re going to be seeing a lot more of that where almost factories in Europe take over this American style of model where they

Are run by private contractors but essentially funded by the government in order to uh to um to yeah to get them back up and running and producing ammunition when they haven’t been doing so for sometimes for decades and and actually that’s one thing in Jack wat’s piece that I was

Reading yesterday was quite interesting he said look while lots of people uh mainly Ukraine say look this is about defending Europe um by giving us weapons actually this is a great way of bringing in tax receipts because all of these goods and items that are bought um

Whether they sold to Ukraine or just basically just getting economies going after what has been a pretty Torrid time with covid then obviously the inflationary pressures of the war in Ukraine energy crunches Etc so it’s um I think we’re going to be seeing a lot more of this and it’s probably something

That I’m going to actually start looking at more about What factories um across Europe could be opening up and producing 155 CHS Jack wlin spoke about the need for um I think he said it was just shy of 2,000 artillery barrels a year that Ukraine will need to carry on its

Defensive duties so yeah it’s interesting to see where where is this going to come from what factor are going to be opening up but Denmark seems to be getting off the starting line already in Europe thank you very much Joe Francis would you like to close today’s episode

Thanks David we were reflecting on zelinsky’s evolving political position yesterday and a bit today and I wanted to point people to a long read in our paper called I spent a year with zilinski and saw how his personality transformed which is an extract from the new book by Simon Schuster analyzing the

President it’s very revealing and Rich with telling anecdotes such as when in Spring 2022 the 55th day of the Russian invasion zilinski asked when Schuster planned to finish his book about him and Schuster told him that his aim would be to capture the first year of the war and

Then publish and apparently zelinsky’s face fell and he said you think the war will not be over in a year and it’s especially good on the reactions of zalinski at Key moments such as the very beginning of the war when he was shocked but absolutely resolved to fight and in

The president’s recognition of key flash points such as the battle for the airport that we’ve discussed many times on the podcast and the need to show strength to the world in those critical opening months of the fullscale invasion the president’s response caught some AIDS by resp by surprise writes

Schuster they’d never seen him in such a rage he gave the harshest possible orders recalled one show no mercy use all available weapons to wipe out every Russian thing at the airport meanwhile an emergency Summit of European leaders was taking place to determine what punishment Russia deserved the leaders

Of Germany Austria and Hungary among others didn’t want to cut ties with the Russian banking system for a while their debate went in circles then zalinski dialed in pale and tired with the early stubble of his wartime beard beginning to show the president did not have much

Faith in his allies to save him and the pessimism showed this may be the last time you see me alive seninsky told them here was the president of a European democracy hauled up in a bunker preparing to face his death and the subjugation of his country it changed

Everything now the article also reveals the practicalities of Day-Day life leading a country at War evidently zilinsky didn’t take good care of himself and ially surviving for days on chocolate and very little sleep I’ve never seen a human in that condition one of his AIDS tells Schuster there’s also

More on the tensions between the president’s office and the commanders something that as we discussed yesterday I think we’re going to be paying a lot more attention to over the coming weeks interestingly zilinsky reads a lot of Churchill something we knew but actually I hadn’t read this before idolizes other

Figures from that era even more such as George Orwell and Charlie Chaplain so artists who articulated what was at stake in a clear concise and passionate way something of course which zalinski himself is known for and particularly talented at I think it’s fair to say so to conclude and I think it’s quite

Interesting given that thought there Shuster writes stubborn confident vengeful imp politic Brave to the point of recklessness and unsparing towards those who stood in his way zelinsky channeled the anger and resilience of his people and expressed it with purpose to the world it was the Showmanship he

Honed over more than 20 years as an actor that made zilinsky so effective in fighting this war so a very interesting revealing read as I say the link will go in the description to that and I highly recommend it as a piece to offer a little bit more fleshing out of some of

The key episodes of the war so far zelinsky’s reactions to them as well as some insights into the personality of the president president of Ukraine and how it’s changed over the course of almost 2 years of fullscale war Ukraine the latest is an original podcast from the telegraph to stay on

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Are David nolles and Louisa Wells

Day 678.

Today, we bring you the latest news from across Ukraine, update on the diplomatic and political news and discuss an important article from RUSI’s Jack Watling on the state of the war.

Contributors:

David Knowles (Head of Audio Development). @DJKnowles22 on Twitter.

Joe Barnes (Brussels Correspondent). @Barnes_Joe on Twitter.

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on Twitter.

Read “I spent a year with Zelensky – and saw how his personality completely transformed”: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/0/year-zelensky-bunker-ukraine-russia-war/

Read “The War in Ukraine Is Not a Stalemate”: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/war-ukraine-not-stalemate

Many of our listeners have raised concerns over the potential sale of Telegraph Media Group to the Abu Dhabi-linked Redbird IMI. We are inviting the submission of comments on the process. Email salecomments@telegraph.co.uk or dtletters@telegraph.co.uk to have your say.

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