Israel-Hezbollah: Exchanges of Lebanon border fire escalate as regional tensions rise

Israel-Hezbollah: Exchanges of Lebanon border fire escalate as regional tensions rise

The funeral of a hero at least for the people of his home Village in southern Lebanon wiam Alta ner jaad was the most senior hisbah Commander killed by Israel so far in this conflict to the Israelis he was a terrorist to his family and supporters a martyr to the

Cause say then I am the mother of two Martyrs and the martyrdom of jaad only serves to increase our strength will and Pride the enemy should never think that one day we will be afraid of massacres or losing people he was hit in his car yesterday every time Israel strikes a

Hisb Target in Lebanon they believe they’re making Israel safer but the Americans are concerned they may provoke a wider conflict hisb fires across the border every day but their Patron Iran has not as yet authorized an allout War it’s it’s a dangerous game so far the exchanges have all been in the Border

Region Israel wants his Bella to move its forces north of the Lani River but even if the Lebanese government in Beirut agreed it has no power of enforcement the caretaker prime minister najib mcti told a senior un official today that Lebanon was ready for talks on Border stability but hisb listens to

The Revolutionary guard in Teran not to him the B skirmishes were on the agenda of the US Secretary of State visiting Tel Aviv for the fourth time since the conflict began he saw the defense minister the foreign minister president Herzog and of course prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu with whom he

Negotiated for a un mission to visit Gaza to ensure that Palestinians can return to their homes in the north of the strip or at least what’s left of them in today’s meetings I was also uh ch clear Palestinian civilians must be able to return home as soon as conditions

Allow they must not be pressed to leave Gaza as I told the Prime Minister the United States unequivocally rejects any proposals advocating for the resettlement of Palestinians outside of Gaza and the Prime Minister reaffirmed to me today that this is not the policy of Israel’s government gazans forced

Into overcrowded camps in southern Gaza say conditions are increasing difficult my message to US Secretary of State Lincoln get us back to Northern Gaza even if it’s to attent it’s better than here because we are suffering here in the Foreign Affairs select committee the foreign secretary was pushed to say whether he thought

Israel had committed war crimes in Gaza I mean if you’re asking me if you’re asking me but if you’re asking am I worried that Israel have t has taken action that might be in breach of intern ational law because this particular premises has been bombed or whatever yes

Of course I’m worried about that and that’s why I consult the foreign office lawyers when giving this advice on arms exports fighting has intensified in KH Unice nine Israeli soldiers were killed yesterday the Americans still aren’t calling for a ceasefire they do want Israel to stop killing Palestinian

Civilians and dial down tension on the northern border but have yet to threaten any sanctions or the suspension of arm sales if Israel refuses to do so Lindsay Hilson reporting while joining me now is Abraham LaVine he’s an intelligence Analyst at the alma Research Center in Northern Israel thank you very much for

Coming on the program I just wonder if you could explain to us what the Israeli government is up to in Lebanon you’ve got the targeted assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas senior commanders you also had that you know killing of the um Iranian commander in Syria what’s the what’s the idea here what’s the

Strategy I think what we’re uh looking at is uh as opposed to what we hear on the media about uh a uh Gaza Israel war or Hamas Israel war I think well Israel is facing two fronts since October 7th and head ofah said it himself that he’s supporting the

Palestinians and is shooting all over into Israel’s northern border as a resident of the north uh when I’m not in the IDF and the reserves and I’m home I’m still being shot at uh what we’re doing is returning fire to the sources of the fire the commanders that are

Being hit are the ones that are planning the shootings into Israel into civilian residential areas in our Northern front but how far do you think Israel will take this because you know you want um Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Lani River so far they’ve given no indication

They’re going to do that the government in beut has absolutely no jurisdiction over Hezbollah so do you think the Israeli Governor is planning to occupy Southern Lebanon as you’ve done in the past well just uh to give a little uh a little basic uh information here the

Idea of uh pushing Bala to the north is not new in the region and resolution 1701 uh claims that right that’s a UN resolution that’s not Israel calling forah and there’s a unifil the United Nations interim force in Lebanon one of the most robust large peacekeeping

Forces in the world is in charge of supporting the Lebanese Army in doing so that’s their job not Israel’s job right uh I I didn’t understand the remark about the jurisdiction as I understand Lebanese government has full jurisdiction in Lebanon yeah but not not over Hezbollah they seem to be calling

The shots in the turf that they control I just wonder if I could if I could ask you is there a broader idea here that the Real Enemy for Israel is Iran and what you’re really hoping to do is to get Iran involved in a wider conflict

With the Americans dragged in on your side no of course not uh no one in Israel wants a war not against Lebanon certainly not against Iran uh we’re trying to avoid war we’ve been trying to do that for a a very long time I’m I’m sadly October 7th we were forced to go

To war uh that wasn’t planned on our side obviously I don’t think anyone in the world uh thinks uh that that uh that’s the case but there are many I think Israel is trying to maintain the situation and make it safe for our civilians to go back home because right

Now over 200,000 Israelis are displaced in their own country and as long as that’s a situ Israel has the basic duty to take care of their residents and their security just very briefly do you agree with those including in the administration in America who are very afraid that this

Conflict will escalate in the region I’m very concerned yes I’m completely uh uh I completely agree with that concern it’s it’s extremely important to understand that the situation is very sensitive and and we can uh this can lead to a terrible War also on the Northern on the Northern

Front I think the main concern and the reason United States officials are coming to Israel is that concern maintaining a situation that Iran not go doesn’t go to war I think the rest of the concerns are a little smaller Abraham leavine thank you very much indeed but joining me now from

Washington is the Middle East analyst and former State Department adviser Aaron David Miller Aaron David Miller great to have you back on the program I don’t know if you just heard our abah LaVine he said there is a real concern of an escalation of this conflict in the

Region but he’s saying that Israel wouldn’t be to blame do you agree with him uh look you have three parties uh four if you comp the United States that will determine and decide whether or not what we’ve been watching for almost four months now as we enter the fourth month

Of the Israel Hamas War to whether or not there’ll be a regional war and a dramatic escalation one hisbah two Iran three Israel and four the United States I think for now my judgment is that the risk aversion that has characterized both Hezbollah and hamama and um Iran’s

Policies and I would include Israel in in that category still prevails tahran and um nasella are prepared to fight Israel to the last Palestinian and I think Hamas Frankle is doing their work for them the more entrenched Israel becomes in Gaza the more entrenched Israel becomes in the West Bank greater

The anger of pales Ians armed struggle the International Community Heats um heaps aob on the Israelis there’s tensions with the United States I think as far as the Iranians are concerned things are going relatively well I do believe that if you ask me where we’d be

Among month from now we still will not have tripped into what I would describe to you as a major regional confrontation because no one including the Israelis wants to open this box and when we talk about a regional escalation let’s let’s be clear about what we mean we mean a

Major war between Israel and hisbah in which hisbah uses uh thousands of its estimated 150 to 200,000 High trajectory weapons of varying ranges and lethality some that are pis and guided right munition Israel will respond destroying Lebanese infrastructure and much of the Southern suburbs uh of Hezbollah their

Command and control that’s going to trigger pro-iranian militia stru strikes escalating against US forces in Syria and Iraq the Americans having deplo deployed a carrier strike group and maybe another with 200 strike aircraft will get involved and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of direct Israeli and American strikes against Iranian

Assets and territory okay that’s what we’re talking about all right now that and the way you the way you outline that it sounds very very scary indeed so nobody wants that right including the Israelis is what you’re saying in particularly given the fact that they have not been able to accomplish their

Military objectives soas is still a vibrant Force they have not succeeded in K in killing the senior leadership or freeing the hostages no okay I think a two-front war would be a disaster for everybody including Israel now another one is this blinkin has been there four times he’s he keeps urging restraint the

Israelis keep not listening when it comes to restraint do you think it’s time for him to move to the next level of threat Maybe sanctions of some sort the look The the US has a hope and and an expectation I think that the character of the Israeli ground campaign

It’s already changed in Northern Gaza and I suspect it’s going to change from division side operations heavy on artillery and air strikes which cause an exponential rise in Palestinian deaths and a humanitarian catastrophe Gaza is going to shift by the end of January to a much more directed Brigade siiz

Intelligence driven operation against tunnels and the Hamas leadership assuming they can find them that’s where I think the Israelis are going should the Israelis not go there the administration I would argue has three options number one uh slow walk or uh restrict military assistance to Israel number two change

The posture of the US and the UN Security Council to abstain or vote for resolution and three I would describe as the nuclear option to agree with the International Community okay who basically wants a cation of hostilities with no Hamas reciprocity so those are the options my own prediction would be

Joe Biden is not going to go to any of them all right and what one word answer please do you think in two months time we will be in a regional war in the Middle East yes or no yeah the answer is no

Another diplomatic blitz by the US Secretary of State today, in Israel for his fourth trip since the 7th October Hamas attack. He announced plans for a UN “assessment mission” to Gaza to determine what needs to be done to allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in the north of the strip.

And on Israel’s border with Lebanon there was an escalation in exchanges of fire with Hezbollah, increasing tensions in the region . As our international editor, Lindsey Hilsum reports.