Taiwan elections: China’s shadow looms large over presidential poll • FRANCE 24 English

Taiwan elections: China’s shadow looms large over presidential poll • FRANCE 24 English

Hello and welcome to access AIA I’m Yuka coming up in this special edition a pivotal moment for Taiwan as its 19 million voters head to the polls on January the 13th to choose their next president the stakes are higher than ever for this self-ruled island on a geopolitical flaat line the outcome of

The election could have implications for the entire region and Beyond it’s an island with area slightly smaller than Switzerland Taiwan formerly known as the Republic of China is home to more than 23 million people and has a vibrant free market economy elections are held every four years and since the

First multi-party vote was held in 1996 there have been three peaceful transfers of power now the stakes are particularly high for this year’s elections as China which claims Taiwan as its own territory has gone as far as to cast the vote as a choice between War and

Peace With Me on set is Victor Luzon assistant professor of sbor University who specializes in modern modern East Asian history great to have you on our show hello well thank you well first off very quickly um before we delve into the history it’s one of the most closely

Watched votes uh in taiwan’s history and indeed around the world this year why do taiwan’s elections matter to the rest of the world well they matter to the extent that the cross trate relations basically relations between taipe and and Beijing have Regional implications in terms of security like Regional and Global

Because as you briefly mentioned um there is a de facto security guarantee which is not explicit but it’s almost explicit by the United States uh for Taiwan which means that any conflict with China could degenerate and escalate into a global or at least Sino American conflict now indeed relations with China

Are high high on the minds of Voters in Taiwan the tensions across the Taiwanese Strait and the Island’s precarious sovereignty are deeply rooted in its history France 24’s Alison Sergeant takes a closer look the rift began with an exile in 1949 at the end of China’s Civil War as

Mao zedong’s Communists took power on the mainland nationalist ruler Chang Kai Sheek fled to Taiwan he and his Kang party or kmt declared Marshall law the start of a period known as the white Terror Taiwan became the seat of the Republic of China which Remains the Island’s official name for years both

The nationalists and the Communists claimed to be China’s legitimate representative but taiwan’s kmt government lost out in 1971 when the UN voted to hand over its seat to the People’s Republic of China do you have anything to say no is this a final leaving well over a decade later in 1987 Taiwan

Began its transition to democracy and in 1996 held its first ever free direct presidential election two decades after that in 2016 Taiwan elected its first female president and first leader from the Democratic people’s party which strongly supports the Island’s deao Independence since saying Wen has been in office the

Island has doubled down on its Progressive ideals including formally apologizing to its many indigenous groups and legalizing same-sex marriage Taiwan has also drawn closer to the United States and tension with China has soared with Beijing increasingly sending warships and planes to circulate nearby a shift in power in Taipei could

Bring a shift in those relations wherever we go from here in Cross straight relations I think it’s most important to adhere to the principles of democracy and to make decisions based based on the common will of the Taiwanese people the will of the Taiwanese people remains somewhat split but desire for

Independence is steadily growing a poll released in September by the islands public opinion Foundation found that nearly half of Taiwanese people support formal Independence one quarter preferred to keep the status quo and just over 10% want to unify with China so Victor China has been stepping up rhetoric over reunification with

Taiwan it says that it has been part of China since the 17th century uh but many in Taiwan disagree with being viewed as a breakaway Province uh could you explain a bit further about this point the two regimes that appeared in 1949 on both sides of the Taiwan Strait were

Both Chinese both Chinese regimes and both regimes claim to be Chinese and to represent the only true the only one China but with time along with time in uh in in Taiwan um and along with the democratization of the of the country a so-call Taiwanese Consciousness appeared so democratization you went hand inand

With the emergence of a new national identity and now we can say with you know a fair amount of certitude that a majority of taiese people do not identify as Chinese only some of them identified as Chinese and Taiwanese some of them as Taiwanese only but the

Portion of population that wishes for a quick reunification with China is insignificant now before it transitioned to a democracy at Taiwan under shanek under the authoritarian rule uh it was it remained a poor Nation for decades but uh since the 1980s especially after it launched into the Hightech sector uh

It’s it’s seen its economy has seen Stellar growth uh is now a glob leader in the semiconductor industry for instance accounting for over 60% of global microchips and as much as 90% of the most advanced ones so it’s become an important economic power it’s now a member of the uh World Trade

Organization for instance uh how has this economic success been made possible well uh it actually started before electronics and before before the high-tech industry it started a bit like for other countries in the region like Japan or South Korea it started with relatively low Tech Goods such as you

Know textile um bikes you know this kind of things um for export export I’m sorry in the 1960s and70s and then gradually the taiese economy shifted from these relatively low Tech Goods to higher to high tech Goods uh in the 80s mostly around the electronic sector and it’s

Been now like it it has now become completely Central in taiwan’s economy to the extent actually that there is the Taiwanese economy depends to a large extent on on these microchips you’ve been you’ve been mentioning and connection the economic economic exchanges with China have played a decisive role in this growth because

China has served as a kind of um you know new engine for Taiwanese growth in the 1990s and the 2000s and now it’s both an asset and a problem because Taiwan is basically reliant on its you know on the country that threatens it threatens its very existence for economic success so once again

Relationship with ch China very important for tyron’s economy as well now this year’s election has been also made significant by the emergence of a third major candidate none of them calls for outright Independence or unification with China but differ on how they want to build future relationships with

Beijing for many voters the economy and social Equity are also important factors our correspondents have sent us this report war or peace that’s the rhetoric from H presidential candidate of theang the main opposition party that is backed by Beijing Taiwan has become the most alarming Battleground in the world so

Opposing the progressive Democratic party is refusing to send our children to war okay this student presides over the G dang Youth League his main concern National Security my younger brother was born in 2005 so he has to do a year of military service unlike me I only served

For 4 months this is a concrete example of how we feel the rising tensions across the straight in recent years we’ve seen China firing missiles conducting military drills very real threats when President sang WN took office 8 years ago China stopped Communications with Tai now the ging dang the Chinese nationalist party aims

To resume dialogue and to strengthen economic ties with Beijing but for the ruling party taiwan’s sovereign comes first to them greater economic dependence would be a step towards eventual unification to defend Taiwan vote for the progressive Democratic party in the presidential and legislative elections this campaigning legislature

Is close to William lie vice president of Taiwan and presidential candidate pictured next to him here we don’t want to provoke China let alone start a war but how can we guarantee peace William Li our candidate puts forward three points first to Ally ourselves with democracies around the

World like the United States and Japan next to strengthen our National Defense and finally to develop our economy for these voters Beijing is seen as a threat China is frightening they spread false information they infiltrate us our law isn’t adapted to deal with that China’s centrality in election

Debates a political division that annoys these inflation hit students they support the third presidential candidate Cohen jur in the space of just a few months he has come into his own with a campaign that focuses on the High Cost of Living the quing Tang governed for eight

Years and saying win for 8 years and Taiwan is only getting worse prices keep Rising there’s a shortage of eggs a shortage of water a shortage of workers according to Coen the K Tang cooperates too much with China and the Democratic Progressive Party is too confrontational he claims to be able to

Find a balance between the two so Victor all three main candidates are actually Pro status quo not pro Independence no pro-china as such yet the ruling Democratic Progressive party’s official party line is to work towards Taiwanese Independence they have yet to drop that uh Dro that quote now

Is it still their real goal well uh president who is currently in office and who will you know um give away her seed very soon would answer that Taiwan is already de facto independent and therefore does not need to seek formal Independence which is a kind of elegant

Way out of the problem of the conundrum um I think a formal independence of T of Taiwan is off the table uh it’s clearly a CES belly for Beijing and it would be received very poly in Washington as well because one thing the Americans do not

Want is being dragged into a war with China for such a symbolic issue I mean it’s crucial symbolically for many Taiwanese but definitely not for the Americans right so no I don’t think we’re looking at a formal Independence anytime soon how high is the threat of China actually in invading CH Taiwan

Militarily well that’s the million-dollar question everyone has been asking for like I don’t know like decades now so I don’t know of course no one knows exactly but I think it would be completely foolish to discard it I think 10 years ago 20 years ago it was

Pretty common place to say you know they make noises about inv ining but they won’t do it I think it would be very very imprudent not to take this like military threat seriously whether it is a planned Invasion or an incident that you know degenerates and escalates

That’s very very possible and I wouldn’t discard it right a possibility still yes and a million dooll question as you said I mean it’s not beijing’s favorite uh you know line of conduct uh peaceful reunification as they say would be by far their favorite option but if they

Have to do it they might do it they might do it well Victor Len from the Sor University thank you so much for your Insight and thank you for watching do stay tuned for more world news here on France4

In Taiwan, the stakes are higher than ever as 19 million voters head to the polls on January 13 to choose their new president. China, which claims the island as its own territory, has gone so far as to cast the vote as a choice between war and peace. In this special edition, FRANCE 24’s Yuka Royer speaks with Victor Louzon, assistant professor at Paris’s Sorbonne University, about one of the most closely-watched elections around the world this year. We also look back at the history of the island. Plus, our correspondents report from the campaign trail.

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