Putin will not succeed in summer offensive | Daniel Fried

Putin will not succeed in summer offensive | Daniel Fried

the Russians seem to be making a play to
attack hariv Ukraine’s second largest
city and one that is in northeastern
Ukraine close to the Russian Frontier
they’ve been hitting it from the air
pretty hard and I think they would take
it by ground if they have the forces but
I don’t think they do you’re right that
it could be a critical juncture and the
reasonable um optimistic scenario but a
reasonable one is that if the Russian
push hard now to try to push back the
ukrainians before the supplies arrive
they might not succeed now they could
Wars are filled with surprises but it is
possible that the ukrainians will hold
that the situation is difficult but not
dire and by hopefully by the summer uh
the situation could look better for the
ukrainians now Ukraine’s president
zilinski has said Russia is taking
advantage of the slow delivery of
Western weapons to go on the offensive
his comments came after the US agreed to
a $60 billion package of military aid
for Ukraine Mr zilinski said some of the
Aid had started to arrive but he added
that it needed to be delivered much
faster he was speaking alongside the
NATO Secretary General Yen stoltenberg
who said that several members of The
Alliance have not delivered what they’ve
promised to Ukraine in time NATO
alliance have not delivered what they
promised the United States spent months
uh not agreeing a package for Ukraine
and European allies uh have not
delivered the amount of ammunition they
promised and this has had serious
consequences on the battlefield the lack
of ammunition has enabled the Russians
to push forward along the front line
lack of air defense has made it possible
for more Russian missiles to hit their
targets and the lack of deep uh strike
capabilities has made it possible for
the Russians to concentrate more forces
and we see the consequences of that now
well meanwhile The Duchess of Edinburgh
has become the first member of the royal
family to visit Ukraine since the
Russian invasion she went on a one-day
visit to demonstrate solidarity with the
women men and children impacted by the
war let’s talk to Daniel freed uh a
former US assistant Secretary of State
for European and Eurasian Affairs also
former US ambassador to Poland uh good
evening
Daniel good evening um it was a pretty
clear warning there from Yen stoltenberg
um about the fact that military
supplies are not getting through are not
being delivered in time and the effect
that that’s
having well the delay in the
Congressional
Appropriations so putting slowing if not
halting us supplies to Ukraine has
consequences and the the weapons are
flowing according to the
administration but it’ll take a time for
those weapons to reach the front and be
incorporated and be
useful that time should not be too
long so you think sorry you you think it
is just a question of time because we’ve
only recently um a week and a bit ago
had that agreement in Congress to
release that big package of $60 billion
doar of military aid you think that that
is on its way it just hasn’t actually
physically reached um Ukraine
yet it has I believe it has physically
reached some of it has physically
reached Ukraine that is it’s my
understanding that the the US military
placed some of that stuff close to the
PO polish Ukraine Border in a position
to move in rather quickly now it still
takes some time for it to move from the
Polish Frontier to the front lines but
some of this was ready to go it’s it’s
not as if the us is going to start some
laborious process of acquiring this
stuff they had done their homework and
of course the long range attacks
missiles that are very useful for
hitting deep Targets in inside Russian
occupied ukra Ukraine have already been
delivered to Ukraine and they’re they’re
at work well I was just going to ask you
what sort of equipment is in that big
package so part of it is those missiles
so they are slightly longer range
missiles that can be fired into Russia I
mean what other equipment is on its
way well first to correct it yes those
longer range missiles could be fired
into Russia but it’s the US intention
that they be used for targets inside
Ukraine including occupied Ukraine and
there are plenty of targets they
ukrainians can go after Crimean military
facilities the Kurt straight bridge and
other Russian um Supply choke uh choke
points so they can be used quite
effectively as I understand that the
package goes from everything includes
everything from military
shells uh
anti-armor armored vehicles um drones
it’s a panoply of stuff that the
ukrainians desperately need and can make
good use of it’ll have to get there but
even with the six-month delay in the US
supplies uh the Russians made advances
but no major breakthroughs and that’s I
can’t call that good news but it does
show that the Ukrainian Line’s held and
it is possible that the Russians if they
push the offensive will not succeed
battlefields always include surprises
but the situation is serious but yet not
dire well it’s interesting you say that
because um we also heard Yen stoltenberg
there talking about um the fact that
supplies are getting through not from
the US but from some some of the other
European members of the NATO alliance
and we’ve had that admission haven’t we
from one of the senior commanders in
Ukraine that the Russians have been
gaining ground
they have indeed been gaining round um
that’s true the ukrainians have been
upfront about this my point was only
that we have not seen Russian
breakthroughs of the sort that the
ukrainians had in the fall of 2002 where
the Russian lines collapsed um in in
haraku province that has not happened
the ukrainians have been pushed back and
by the way you’re quite right that non
us NATO allies have been sending quite a
bit of good equipment to Ukraine I’m
thinking of the Czech um artillery shell
Consortium or the German effort to get
um Patriot systems to Ukraine now the
British the poles have done a lot other
countries too so it’s not that the
ukrainians are completely starved but
the lack of the flow from the United
States did make a difference and now
hopefully that will be rectified and the
Ukrainian position can start to improve
so are we reaching a critical point now
in this war because uh yes we’ve seen
some gains by the Russians uh the
ukrainians desperate to try to push them
back to prevent them from taking any of
those major cities more kit and
equipment on the
way well the Russians seem to be making
a play to attack ke Ukraine’s second
largest city and one that is in
northeastern Ukraine close to the
Russian Frontier they’ve been hitting it
from the air pretty hard and I think
they would take it by ground if they
have the forces but I don’t think they
do you’re right that it could be a
critical juncture and the reasonable um
optimistic scenario but a reasonable one
is that if the Russians push hard now to
try to push back the ukrainians before
supplies arrive they might not succeed
now they could Wars are filled with
surprises but it is possible that the
ukrainians will hold that the situation
is difficult but not dire and by
hopefully by the summer uh the situation
could look better for the ukrainians but
that’s there are no guarantees this is a
war we’ve got to be clear that the enemy
gets uh gets a vote as they
say um and just finally we’ve had um The
Duchess of Edinburgh um the first member
of the British royal family visiting um
Ukraine um she’s saying that she’s there
to demonstrate her solidarity with the
women men and children impacted by the
war and she also actually met president
zalinski now um I mean it’s symbolic but
it is it isn’t it an important gesture
of the support that there still is for
Britain for Ukraine
oh yes uh look I was in keev about a
month ago and the ukrainians need to see
their friends they need to know that
they’re not alone I was there before the
the Congress voted the assistance so
they were worried about the steadiness
of the United States but that kind of
support a member of the British royal
family going to to Ukraine and sharing
the risks is an act of solidarity that
will make a a real impression on the
ukrainians the message is you’re not
alone we do stand with you and frankly I
think a lot of ukrainians will remember
the behavior of the British royal family
in in 1940 which was heroic and I think
the ukrainians will understand that this
is a serious gesture it me it will mean
something to them Daniel freed uh former
US assistant Secretary of State for
European and Eurasian Affairs um thank
you so much for joining us
tonight thanks for having me me

“Ukrainian lines held and it’s possible that if the Russians push the offensive, they will not succeed.”

Weapons from the US have reached Ukraine which will help them in holding their lines in the summer offensive, says former US ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried.

📻 Listen to Times Radio – https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio

📍 Subscribe to our channel – http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTjDhFuGXlhx9Us0gq0VK2w?sub_confirmation=1

🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/radio-3for3/

📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-to-listen-to-times-radio/app