Putin’s Achilles’ heel under fire as Ukraine plans ATACMS to hit Kerch Bridge | Frontline

Putin’s Achilles’ heel under fire as Ukraine plans ATACMS to hit Kerch Bridge | Frontline

from a strategic perspective preparing
the battlefield to attack crier has gone
pretty well they have hit a lot of
targets deep in Crimea a lot of
airfields taken down a lot of um some of
the Russians top fighter jets and
bombers um they have made a lot of them
move out of Crimea and they’ve
interdicted a lot of um refineries
ammunition dumps not only in Crimea but
but also in Russia hello and welcome to
Frontline for times radio I’m James
Hansen and today we’re talking about the
latest on the war in Ukraine and I’m
delighted to be joined once again by
heish to Breton Gordon heh is a former
commander of the royal tank regiment who
served on operations during the first
Gulf War as well as in Cyprus Bosnia
Kosovo Iraq and Afghanistan commanding
main battle tanks for around 24 years on
top of that haish also commanded NATO’s
rapid reaction chemical biological and
radiological nuclear Battalion and is a
biocurity fellow at morling College in
Cambridge heish always a pleasure
welcome back to front line thank you
very much for having me James I wanted
to start just by getting your assessment
of the big news from a few weeks ago the
US finally approving that more than $60
billion dollar worth of military aid for
Ukraine how long do you think it will be
until the impact of that is felt on the
ground I think first of all it’s it’s
very good news but but it’s sort of six
months too late they could have really
done with it um way back when uh because
in the last last six months Ukraine’s
really been suffering for the lack of
ammunition artillery ammunition the lack
of precision guided missiles which they
use so
effectively and and other military
hardware so um thank heavens it is
coming now because as I’m sure we’ll go
into the the the front lines between the
Ukrainian forces and Russia are are in a
really difficult position and and
Ukraine is is struggling to hold on in
some areas now the Americans have said
that actually a lot of this kit will
arrive very quickly and I I think of key
significance um the very latest top
secret atacam missiles uh which are um
basically Precision guided up to about 3
to 400 kilomet um are already in in the
theater of warfare so they already have
those we’ve already heard about them
attacking airfields in crier they
attacking depth positions in Russia
which is having an impact the rest of it
um again we understand quite a lot of it
is also positioned forward so um it
should get there relatively quickly and
you know but by gosh it is needed um
very welcome and of course let’s not
forget also that Britain announced half
a billion 500 million pounds uh worth of
Aid recently which significantly
included more Storm Shadow missiles
these are a bit like attacks very long
range and and very important that the
the Russians don’t seem to be able to
knock them down with their current air
defense so so some significant things
happening but but uh you know it is a
very challenging picture that we’re
seeing in Ukraine at the moment and and
of what is included in the aid package
and we don’t know the you know full
shopping list as it were is it the
attacks that you think will be the most
crucial well the attacks are what we
call a strategic weapon in other words
they have the opportunity to hit
strategic targets these are targets that
can have a demonstrative effect on the
way that the Russian wages war and
particularly the sort of logistic
support So attacking the rail hubs the
roads Bridges I think it’s it’s no
secret that Ukraine intends to take out
the kers bridge the main Bridge from
Russia into Crimea where a lot of um
their military hardware flows so that is
why the attacks is so crucial but also
it’s just the amount of artillery
ammunition and tank ammunition which
Ukraine has been you know really
suffering with not having I mean the
Russians are firing 10 artillery rounds
to every one Ukrainian at the moment and
you know as we’ve discussed before and
as we’re seeing on the front you know
Mass has a real quality of its own and
you know although we thought this was
sort of first world war type um uh uh
usage rates actually the trench warfare
in the dbass is virtually similar
virtually no difference to the trench
warfare in passendale and the Som you
know well over a 100 years ago so yeah
just that weight of ammunition is key as
well as well as the smart stuff yeah
ammunition absolutely crucial I’m
guessing also hey Mish air defense
systems I mean you know Ukraine have
have held up relatively well so far with
their air defenses but they are kind of
creaking because of a lack of Supply
absolutely and I I think only yesterday
the British government um said that it
would would rush Patriot missiles into
into Ukraine Patriot missiles are are
absolutely key for what we call sort of
mid area defense these are the ones
protecting a lot of the cities in
Ukraine um but and and it’s it is a
numbers game um you know there are tens
of thousands if not hundreds of
thousands of drones flying around um
there are variety of different missiles
and air defense is is really one of the
deciding factors in this Modern Warfare
and you know it’s at the moment um
Ukraine is just about holding out it’s
it’s creaking but just about holding out
but if it runs out of air defense
missiles then things could turn very bad
very quickly so having the Patriot
missiles and the other air defense
weapons being rushed into Ukraine is is
essential to allow them to hold on dig
in and hopefully start to rebuild their
offensives and we we have seen even in
recent days Russia continuing to make
some small incremental advances
particularly around a divka do you think
we will see a major new Russian ground
offensive in the coming weeks there is a
school of thought that they will try and
do it in the next few weeks partly
because of the ground conditions but
also partly because all of the US
military aid may not have been provided
by that point well C certainly what is
happening on the front lines and has
been happening over the last few months
is a real concern you know the the
Russians have got 600,000 troops you
know aliit not very well- trained troops
but again mass is important um and they
are really pushing we mentioned adka and
bakut where they’ve made advances you
know adka they’ve they’ve made about 10
kilometers now one of the concerning
things that I have been writing about a
lot in the last few weeks is they are uh
the precursor to a lot of their attacks
is is a huge amount of use of Cs gas
right control agent a sort of improvised
chemical weapon it does sound
unbelievably simple and uh something we
shouldn’t be worried about but actually
it’s having a huge impact um there are
Reuters did an investigation as did the
telegraph really the extent of this and
in simple terms um by throwing a lot of
Cs gas into the Ukrainian trenches um
the Ukrainian servicemen don’t have
respirators or certainly don’t have
respirators gas masks that actually work
so they’re then abandoning the positions
and the Russians are following up with
armored attacks and conventional attacks
and this is how they seem to be making
ground um and you know that builds
confidence in the Russians and you know
it’s morale sapping for the ukrainians
so and with the ground now drying out um
there is a concern that in the short
term absolutely the Russians might try
and and push really hard until some of
that Hardware goes I think also very
interesting to note the week that um the
ukrainians have withdrawn some of their
Western tanks from the front line
particularly the Abrams um first of all
because uh they they have become under
significant attack from these fpv drones
these uh very cheap $500 drones with
sort of hand grenades on them that
literally fly through open hatches um so
that is a concern on the one hand but
but I think it is probably more likely
that Ukraine is trying to uh develop a
mobile armored defense so that if there
is a breakthrough then they can counter
it but um yeah it’s a tense time if if
ukrainians can hold on for the next sort
a month or so then they should be
restocked and conversely no doubt the
Russians are looking at it but I think
the Russian ability to conduct what we
call combined arms maneuver that’s tanks
that’s air power and artillery and
infantry all working together is pretty
limited because you need to train you
know this takes you know if it was a
British Army at like my you know when I
was commanding the first all tank
regiment we did a year or two years of
training before we’d go into the front
line in somewhere like Iraq or
Afghanistan so what the Russians are
doing giving people a couple of days
trading one’s you know not very
confident that they can do this but
again they will throw as they call it
throw more soldiers into the meat
grinder in the dbass and hopefully make
make um progress that way so yeah I
think I think the early summer the next
sort of six to eight weeks are are going
to be crucial and if Ukraine can hold on
then then I think everybody’s a bit more
confident but but it could be touch and
go um but one would expect to see the
ukrainians doing a lot more deep strike
we’ve discussed the attacks we discussed
the Storm Shadow and that really is they
can cut off the supply lines uh for the
Russians then the Russians will run out
of ammunition so yeah it’s going to be a
tense time we’ll need to watch it very
closely it’s really interesting what you
said there heish about the Russian use
of of Cs gas on the front line what
realistically could Ukraine do to
counter that I mean does it
fundamentally come down to the supply of
things like gas masks absolutely there
there is a very simple solution to this
and um uh and actually in in writing
about it with support from the uh ex
defense secretary Ben Wallace and also
um Bob Cel another MP who’s head of the
Ukraine all party group uh we tried to
be um suggesting to the UK government
that actually they could provide gas
masks because that that would end this
threat um CS gas only lasts for a couple
of minutes but it is deeply unpleasant
um and you know i’ I’ve seen the use of
basic toxic chemicals like chlorine in
Syria being very very effective um for
an unprotected soldiers or unprotected
civilians it can be devastating so so
that CS gas use could be countered if we
could get you know the the right amount
of gas masks the front line in short
order and you know hopefully people are
are working on that but but let let’s
not um let’s not let the Russians off
the hook here this is viewed as a
chemical Weapon by the chemical weapons
convention it is illegal under the
Geneva Convention and the chemical
weapons Convention as and it is in
effect a war crime and the Russians
should be called that for using this
Dreadful weapon NATO Secretary General
Yen Stenberg was in ke yesterday
actually made a surprise visit and he
said that Ukraine’s Western allies must
provide long-term reliable military
assistance to Ukraine and and crucially
signal to the Kremlin that Russia can’t
simply wait out Western support for
Ukraine do you see any sign of the West
heeding that warning well I think the
head of NATO is absolutely right here um
you know this is uh you know this is not
a short-term thing uh one has to look at
the enemy Putin you know he has told us
for the last few years he wants to
retake those Soviet countries that are
now in the west and now part of NATO the
Estonia lvia Lithuania Poland uh
Bulgaria Romania um so he he has a
long-term plan and so and so must we I
think NATO needs to have a really good
hard look at itself um because you know
if Ukraine doesn’t Prevail and Russians
make Headway this summer then we are
going to be all in and um you know I
know NATO countries have suggested
having boots on the ground in Ukraine
unfortunately our own foreign secretary
has sort of dismiss that and I think I
think that is really premature because
the best place to hold the Russians is
as far away as possible and at the
moment that’s Ukraine so and I think
when you look at you know uh information
coming out of the ministry of Defense
over the weekend that we’re potentially
going to put British troops into Gaza um
we also over the last few weeks have
shot down Iranian missiles heading to
civilian Targets in Israel but much much
closer to home we seem unwilling to put
British boots on the ground in Ukraine
and we seem unwilling to knock down
Russian missiles and drones fired at
civilian Targets in Ukraine which
legally I don’t see there is any
difference at all so I welcome the head
of the NATO being in Ukraine and I think
NATO needs to have a really look hard
look at this because the way that um the
Ukrainian forces are under pressure at
the moment is probably the most worrying
that we we have been over the last 12
months or so the possibility actually
Russia could make significant great U
gains which would mean that NATO has to
get involved but but by telling the
enemy what you’re not going to do in
other words not going to put boots on
the ground that hands them the Strategic
advantage and we need to gain that back
again and quickly and when we talk about
boots on the ground what would that look
like would that be troops from NATO
countries actually fighting with the
ukrainians on the front line or would it
be actually in Ukraine providing more
training and logistical support for
example one of the reservations that
Olaf Schultz has had about providing the
tourist missiles is he says that would
require German soldiers to be in Ukraine
programming the missiles and he’s he’s
got reservations about that but that
would seem to be a less extreme option
than having them actually physically
fighting alongside the ukrainians on the
front line yeah absolutely there will be
a variety you know in the worst possible
case it would be you know British tanks
in Ukraine fighting now that that is
Extreme and I don’t that’s not what
we’re talking about but but what
enablers is the sort of military term
absolutely you want people who are
helping the ukrainians directing the
fire of some of their sophisticated
Weaponry um no doubt people collecting
intelligence um I I think crucially as
the F-16 fighter jets arrive which are
just over the horizon they will need
support from um NATO awax these are the
Airborne air control command and control
aircraft that can pick targets and and
help in that way and even I think NATO
Jets maybe not in Ukraine airspace but
but certainly from NATO airspace you
know some of these missiles they far go
go a heck of a long way so actually that
would be you know boots in the air if
you like um helping at the end defense
of Ukraine so to begin with it’s it is
that enabling support but one must plan
for the eventuality of troops themselves
having to go forward because you know it
is much better to fight and defeat your
enemy as far away from your Homeland as
possible than allow Russians to come
forward and and having us you know fight
the Russians in in Germany and France
and and and the low countries you know
at as we did the Nazis in the second
world war you made the comparison a
moment ago heish with the situation in
the Middle East and obviously the
context is very different but but after
Israel very successfully managed to
rebuff that Iranian drone attack or
missiles attack um a few weeks ago there
were people who said well hang on
where’s Ukraine’s Iron Dome now of
course Ukraine in terms of the scale of
the country far bigger than Israel but
but could an Iron Dome work for Ukraine
well I I think you know F first of all
the the sort of Israeli Iron Dome that
was supported by the Americans ourselves
the French and the jordanians was
incredibly effective and shot down
99.9% of the Iranian drones fired at
exstensively civilian Targets in Israel
and it would have seemed to have put the
lid back on the potential escalation in
the Middle East um uh you know everybody
was you know incredibly concerned uh and
certainly those people who don’t really
understand these things saying oh it’s
going to ignite into a third world war
in the Middle East well actually by
being aggressive and showing strength it
seems to have done the opposite and when
you’re dealing with Tyrant um you know
whether it’s the Ayatollah in tan or
Putin in the Kremlin they respect
strength they exploit weakness so when
we look at Ukraine one could say what
what is the difference and the Iron Dome
or air defense systems is absolutely
crucial that is where Russia has such a
significant Advantage at at the moment I
can see no reason why um uh those uh
Royal Air Force typhoons that took part
in in the the attack a few weeks ago um
couldn’t well they were repositioned
from Romania um from Romania over the
Black Sea those typhoons could take down
missiles and drones fired from Crimea
without without straying outside
International airspace so I think it is
something that we we really need to
seriously look at and it really goes
back to the fact that you know if
Ukraine goes wrong it has a direct
effect on the security of this country
and would really you know it’s there are
very few people who don’t think that it
wouldn’t take us into war with Russia so
if we can prevent that by providing uh
Ukraine Iron Dome or whatever we want to
call it but similar to what we did uh to
prevent the Iranian missiles getting
through then I think that would make the
um chance of WI a war in Europe less
much less slightly I wanted to ask you
homish about how realistic you think it
is for Ukraine to one day recapture
Crimea I was speaking yesterday on front
line to Michael ban who’s who’s been
with the times since 1972 as a foreign
correspondent columnist leader writer he
knows his stuff and he was quite
pessimistic about Ukraine ever
recapturing Crimea and I put the
counterargument that if you look at the
success that Ukraine has had at
eliminating much of the Black Sea Fleet
if you look at the way they’ve been
targeting the Cur bridge that actually
it may not necessarily be out of the
question where do you stand on that well
this is a really interesting point um I
think what uh Ukraine has done is in in
military terms we we call it preparing
the battlefield so from a strategic
perspective preparing the battlefield to
attack Crimea has gone pretty well they
have hit a lot of targets deep in Crimea
a lot of airfields taken down a lot of
um some of the Russians top fighter Jets
and bombers um they have made a lot of
them move out of Crimea and they’ve
interdicted a lot of um refineries
ammunition dumps not only in Crimea but
but also in Russia um we know the Kirch
bridge is is um is probably the Achilles
Hill of Russia um it’s it’s so much in
the sights for Ukraine to attack and so
likely that it it will do at some stage
that that would really cut the head off
the crier snake now as you mentioned the
Black Sea fleet has gone there is no um
virtually no Naval pres presence in the
Black Sea now which gives Ukraine
freedom of maneuver W which will be
critical the the big question is could
they break through the sovin line the
defensive lines which have been so
difficult at the moment um and if they
can I think yes they certainly could
take Crimea um and whether you know
whether that will help
Quicken the end of the war or not is a
case to to to consider but I I don’t
think taking crime a is completely out
of the question and um you know it it
could be a very key sort of um element
in the future uh to to to get some sort
of meaningful piece so yeah I I would
say crime a is is up for grabs and if um
Ukraine gets all the kit that it needs
um that it’s coming through now it might
be in a in a better position to do that
and if it gets you know the Ukraine Iron
Dome we’ve been talking about and gains
their superiority then yeah again it’s
another bit of the jigsa making it more
lightly so I wouldn’t write off primier
at this stage just to go back to to the
issue of the West taking the threat
posed by Russia increasingly seriously
obviously we we’ve seen last week for
example the UK making a pledge to
increase its defense spending by 2030
and there seems to be a general
realization that European countries do
need to spend more on defense now that
doesn’t necessarily help Ukraine that’s
more to do with their own defense but
but do you think we are seeing a Tipping
Point now heish where where there is
more of a realization that actually
Russia does need to be confronted well
this is a really really interesting
point I think until quite recently you
know defense was not an election issue
and you know the election in this
country and the election in the states
um in November is you know is the the
big elephant in the room um you know if
people don’t see defense as an issue
then you know it could go very badly
wrong and I think both both the main
parties have now realized that actually
um you know and I think I I’ve written
recently you instead of going to the
polling booths in November we could all
be going to the recruitment centers to
pick up our kit to go and fight uh in
Europe so there hopefully and you know
it’s great thing that the Frontline uh
pushes this and keeps it in the news
hopefully people in the country are
realizing that that war in Europe is is
not a distant possibility I wouldn’t say
it’s the most likely possibility but it
it is possible and the the more we
ignore it the more likely Hood it will
happen um as people are talking we’re in
a pre-war phase at the moment the way in
a pre-war phase to prevent war is to
show to your enemy that you are
preparing for it you are stronger than
them and you will you know follow
through your actions until very recently
I think Putin has looked at us and
looked at our conventional deterrence
and has not been deterred and we’ve got
a catchup to do um you know we we have
paid lip service to our conventional
deterrence since the end of the Cold War
whereas Putin has done absolutely the
opposite now we we have been caught
napping um what on Earth and and it’s a
political thing I’m afraid you know it’s
one sees and I’m sure you discuss it all
the time people are generally more
concerned about climate change they’re
more concerned about clost of living
crisis they’re more concerned about
what’s happening uh in Gaza but they’re
not seeing what’s happening on their
doorstep that actually all those things
if we get the defense wrong and don’t
have a a credible conventional
deterrence those things could be
horrifically irrelevant because we will
we will be at War and what we must
absolutely do and for somebody like
myself who spent the last 35 years of my
life on the battlefield of the world you
know I’ve seen war and and you don’t
want it you’ve got to avoid it if at all
possible and um we are only just waking
up to it and let’s hope we’re not too
late just just on Gaza I mean it is
interesting when you compare and I don’t
want to get into the Rights and Wrongs
of what Israel is doing in Gaza too much
but you know when you compare the
strength of feeling many in the west
have about the situation in Gaza to the
strength of feeling people apparently
have about Ukraine I mean we have campus
protests in the US in the UK regularly
about Gaza there’s demonstrations in
London almost every week and yet you
have an illegal invasion of a country in
Europe and it doesn’t seem to Merit the
same outrage does that frustrate you
well I’m yes and no I’m a realist you
know I I can see and I you know I I I
often you know have discussions with
with people with opposite views and I
think that’s what one must do to find
out you know what people are thinking
and I know a lot young people and the
way they consume their news are are you
know they see you know kids dying in
Gaza and that that that’s horrific and
that’s what they’re consuming um and on
its own yeah I can see why people are
far more concerned uh with Gaza than
than What’s Happening Here unfortunately
you know that that is not life um and
one has to you know look up and see what
what what else is happening you know
there are you know more civilian I being
killed in Ukraine than there are in in
Gaza for instance um and uh you know we
we are not realizing that actually what
happens in Ukraine has a direct impact
on what we’re doing here you know Hamas
are not going to you know charge through
the Streets of London killing people um
you know they might you know some of
their offshoots might um try and create
Terror here but you know we we’re re
pretty good at keeping that Under Wraps
but you know that that is you know not
not the same with with Russia steaming
into Europe which would mean that we
would all have to fight and it it could
you know potentially be that like the
second world war with every every family
in this country having to get involved
and you know I had an interesting debate
with um some of the CND leaders over the
last few weeks who um you know we were
talking on the nuclear side but their
view was that young people in this
country were you know institutional
pacifists now and wouldn’t fight and my
view as well I think that was the same
in 1939 and in 1913 but actually you
know when you have to fight you have to
fight and that’s that’s just the way
things are but it is preventional that’s
absolutely key so it’s which is why it’s
so important to keep the matters in
Ukraine uh back in the media because the
uh headline grabbing stuff coming out of
Gaza yeah absolutely is horrific but it
I think it is affecting people’s
mindsets on a very much individual basis
rather than looking up um to see what
Dreadful things could potentially happen
if things go badly in Ukraine just
finally he we’re having this
conversation at the end of April what
does a good may look like for Ukraine
well a good May is is the front lines
not moving anymore than than we’re
seeing at the moment a good May sees the
f-16s arriving and creating with with
all the other air defense and the
longrange missiles some sort of air
superiority for Ukraine because once
Ukraine has air superiority it can start
maneuvering on the ground now I don’t
think that’s going to start happening in
May but I think the the psychological
message that it will show send out to
the Ukrainian people um who have felt
for the last six months they felt on
their own you know they say what you
know why why why should young kids in
Ukraine fight when America is and
everybody else isn’t giving them the
hard way to do it so a good May is the
rebuilding of morale in Ukraine and
getting them back on the front foot
rather than purely on the defensive and
uh a bad May would be a significant
Russian incursion and offensive and a
bad May would would have us all really
uh looking at the potential to fight um
the Russians ourselves so let let’s hope
that the good May happens and not the
bad may he Mr Bron Gordon always
appreciate your time thank you for
joining us today on Frontline pleasure
you’ve been watching Frontline for times
radio my thanks to Lou syes our producer
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“Ukraine has prepared the battlefield from Crimea pretty well, they’ve hit a lot of targets deep in Crimea, a lot of airfields and they’ve taken down a lot of Russia’s top fighter jets and bombers.”

With Ukraine being supplies with long range ATACMS, Hamish de Bretton-Gordon discusses what this means for Ukraine’s plans to target the Kerch bridge and take back Crimea.

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