Putin in limbo as ‘reckless’ military casualties cause unrest with Russian elites | Michael Binyon

Putin in limbo as ‘reckless’ military casualties cause unrest with Russian elites | Michael Binyon

they have a very poor record of saving
lives on the front line they just throw
in wave after wave I mean some of them
they say well these were prisoners you
know these were people who uh they they
they took the bargain you know they
would be free if they joined up and and
fought on the front line and uh they got
killed well that was their choice as it
were um they are trying to induce people
into the armed services by paying
enormous amounts of money I mean six
times the average wage for those who
join up and Promises to their families
if they are killed or if they are
injured uh well that will that might
keep up some the flow of recruits but
actually military conscription a new
wave of conscription Putin has been
reluctant to do that and will it depends
how how tough the situation gets for
Russia whether they will or or need to
do that we have heard since the start of
the fullscale invasion fears about Putin
potentially using tactical nuclear
weapons in Ukraine fears about some
major escalation so far that hasn’t come
to pass how would you assess that risk
yes well the risk is there but I think
the Russians are under pretty pretty
strict uh restrictions both from their
main Ally China who’s warned them
several times publicly as well as
privately don’t you think of using
nuclear weapons because the Chinese know
that you know then World War III starts
or you know absolutely uncontrollable
consequences if they start doing that uh
and equally I think public opinion
Within in Russia would be very hostile
to the idea of nuclear weapons that
could expose Russians also to a
Counterattack now as for the Germans
feeling that they are getting involved
by having um people on the ground
helping man these missiles well that is
a perfectly real fear and it’s not
unreasonable because actually several
countries have clandestinely put their
own experts on the ground to help
Ukraine uh either train or you know use
or launch or do whatever they need to do
with weapons which the ukrainians are
not familiar and there have been reports
that there are quite a number of
undercover Western military advisers or
actually experts on the ground with
ukrainians um the Russians are well
aware of that the Russians have uh tried
to stop that by bombing supply lines or
targeting uh ammunition dumps where
these things are delivered inside
Ukraine but it’s a bit difficult for
them because U the Western governments
have all denied that they’re officially
uh entering into a direct armed
association with Ukraine they’re saying
we’re simply supplying you know what
they need in terms of weapons and
defense but inevitably um there are
people on the ground yeah and and I
suppose The crucial question is is it
possible for Ukraine to win this war
without escalating the conflict that’s a
very good question I mean it depends how
you define winning uh is it possible for
them to get back all the territory now
occupied by Russia frankly the answer is
no it’s not going to happen they’re not
going to get the Russians particularly
out of Crimea uh and actually I’m not
sure for all their talk whether the West
really will push ukrainians into open
you know fullscale War to the point
where they’ve got the Russians
retreating back behind the 19 uh 2014
Frontiers in other words withdrawing
from crime um the West was fairly mute
when the Russians occupied crime partly
because there was a sort of feeling that
Crimea actually historically has always
been Russian it was only in 1954 that
krof signed it over to Ukraine uh and in
those days didn’t matter it was all the
same country it was all part of the
Soviet Union so there isn’t that sort of
feeling that Ukraine must go on all the
way to win now Victory could mean less
than getting all the territory back it
could show mean simply showing Moscow
that they have failed in their objective
of subordinating the entire country to
Moscow that most of Ukraine is free and
independent and will not necessarily do
what Moscow wants and that could be a
real definition of Victory and it could
indeed be very damaging to Putin is it
unrealistic though for Ukraine to
recapture crime here because there would
be some who say look at the success that
Ukraine a country essentially without a
Navy has had at eliminating much of the
the Black Sea Fleet uh obviously has
targeted the kurch bridge in the past if
they were able to destroy or partially
destroy the kurch bridge that would be a
severe blow to Russia is it really out
of the question they could retake Crimea
no it’s not out of the question I just
think it’s politically more difficult
for them to persuade the Allies to back
them to a fullscale assault getting the
all Russian forces out of Kier you’re
right they have had enormous success
unexpected success almost uh in their
Naval operations uh they’ve managed to
Target Russian ships they’ve sunk quite
a few they’ve forced the Russians to
with withdraw from uh the ports in uh
Sasol in particular move further east to
Russian ports the other side of the um
of the of the the water there uh I think
that the Russians would double down
enormously if they really thought the
Crimea itself was actually about to be
retaken I think they would launch
everything they’ve got to make sure that
doesn’t happen but in terms of being
able to hit Russian forces uh the
ukrainians have been quite successful
particularly with their longer range
missiles at hitting ammunition dumps at
hitting strategic uh uh Supply points
and and also Russian bases and and
tactically do you think we will see that
continue from Ukraine particularly with
the provision now of these attacks again
from the US that they will go after some
of the energy infrastructure that Russia
has whilst obviously trying to defend
their positions on the front line
undoubtedly I mean that would be the
sensible thing to do I mean I’m sure
that’s what their military advisers
would would tell them to do uh and they
need to Target uh the airfields and the
bases where a lot of Russian attacks are
launched from they need to actually hit
energy infrastructures in the same way
that the Russians have done and are
still doing in Ukraine yes um but of
course again you get to the point where
to what extent is are the Western allies
ready to allow the ukrainians to use
Western weapons for direct assaults on
Russia proper beyond the territory that
has been occupied uh with are they ready
for long range hits say on Moscow or
wherever they might try to bomb uh I
think the answer is the West would be
fairly reluctant but wouldn’t that
wouldn’t that bring things to a head in
a way that may work out in Ukraine’s
favor because you know at the moment for
many ordinary Russians the war feels
quite distant it doesn’t affect their
day-to-day lives if there were regular
strikes on big Russian cities surely
that would increase the pressure
internally on Putin yes well I can tell
you about one city in particular that I
know quite well namely belgar
down in the South where I have spent
several years teaching English uh in to
to students in belgrod a lovely city
it’s it’s a sort of medium-sized Town
neither Rich neither poor neither big
neither small it’s a a typical quite
quite well-to-do southern town and they
have had uh attacks on them and people
have been killed and they they are quite
worried and upset and scared and they it
does come home to them very much in a
big way there but that’s because it’s
right close to the Ukrainian border now
several of the the other big cities
haven’t really seen that I mean there
have been symbolic attacks on Moscow uh
we’ve had drones that have actually hit
buildings and done something but we
haven’t had widespread casualties or
anything like that and I don’t think the
average Russian um does really feel that
the war is all around them of course the
average young person does worry that any
moment now they may be recruited into
the military and that is a very real
real threat and particularly uh the U
Elite youth as it were in Moscow and
Petersburg either they’ve fled or
they’re hoping that the um military
recruitment will not pick them up
because that could cause a lot of upset
in influential places and do you think
puin will do that at some point or do
you think he’d be reluctant to because
of the internal unrest it would cause if
if he does for example conscript younger
more middle class um uh people you know
from the big cities of Moscow and St
Petersburg well so far he has been very
reluctant to do that which suggests he
would still be reluctant if depends how
urgently they need more forces depends
how Reckless they are with their own
casualties I mean they have a very poor
record of saving lives on the front line
they just throw in wave after wave I
mean some of them they say well these
were prisoners you know these were
people who uh they they they took the
bargain you know they would be free if
they joined up and and fought on the
front line and uh they got killed well
that was their choice as it were um they
are trying to induce people into the
armed services by paying enormous
amounts of money I mean six times the
average wage for those who join up and
Promises to their families if they are
killed or if they are injured uh well
that will that might keep up some the
flow of recruits but actually military
conscription a new wave of conscription
Putin has been reluctant to do that and
will it depends how how tough the
situation gets for Russia whether they
will or or need to do that you’ve been
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“They have a very poor record for saving lives on the frontline. They throw in wave after wave… The elite youth have either fled or their hoping that military recruitment won’t pick them up because that would cause upset in influential places.”

Michael Binyon analyses Putin’s conscription dilemma: as he continues to lose soldiers on the frontline but struggles to recruit younger troops without causing upset with Russian elites.

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