Ukraine could ‘certainly take Crimea’ as Putin loses grip | Hamish de Bretton-Gordon

Ukraine could ‘certainly take Crimea’ as Putin loses grip | Hamish de Bretton-Gordon

we know the Kirch bridge is is um is
probably the Achilles Hill of Russia um
it’s it’s so much in the SS for Ukraine
to attack and so likely that it it will
do at some stage that that would really
cut the head off the Crimea snake now as
you mentioned the Black Sea fleet has
gone there is no um virtually no Naval
pres presence in the Black Sea now which
gives Ukraine freedom of maneuver wi
which will be critical the the big
question is could they break through the
sovin line the defensive lines which
have been so difficult at the moment um
and if they can I think yes they
certainly could take Crimea and and of
what is included in the a package and we
don’t know the you know full shopping
list as it were is it the attacks that
you think will be the most crucial well
the attacks are what we call a strategic
weapon in other words they have the
opportunity to hit strategic targets
these are targets that can have a
demonstrative effect on the way that the
Russian wages war and particularly the
sort of logistic support So attacking
the rail hubs the roads Bridges I think
it’s it’s no secret that Ukraine intends
to take out the cers bridge the main
Bridge from Russia into Crimea where a
lot of um their military hardware flows
so that is why the attacks is so crucial
but also it’s just the amount of
artillery amunition and tank ammunition
which Ukraine has been you know really
suffering with not having I mean the
Russians are firing 10 artillery rounds
to every one Ukrainian at the moment and
you know as we’ve discussed before and
as we’re seeing on the front you know
Mass has a real quality of its own and
you know although we thought this was
sort of first world war type um uh uh
usage rates actually the trench warfare
in the dbass is virtually similar
virtually no difference to the trench
warfare in passionale and the S you know
well over a 100 years ago so yeah just
that weight of ammonition is key as well
as well as the smart stuff I wanted to
ask you homish about how realistic you
think it is for Ukraine to one day
recapture Crimea I was speaking
yesterday on front line to Michael ban
who’s who’s been with the times since
1972 as a foreign correspondent
columnist leader writer he knows his
stuff and he was quite pessimistic about
Ukraine ever recapturing crime
and I put the counterargument that if
you look at the success that Ukraine has
had at eliminating much of the Black Sea
Fleet if you look at the way they’ve
been targeting the kurur bridge that
actually it may not necessarily be out
of the question where do you stand on
that well this is a really interesting
point um I think what uh Ukraine has
done is in in military terms we we call
it preparing the battlefield so from a
strategic perspective preparing the
battlefield to attack Crimea has gone
pretty well they have hit a lot of
targets deep in Crimea a lot of
airfields taken down a lot of um some of
the Russians top fighter jets and
bombers um they have made a lot of them
move out of Crimea and they’ve
interdicted a lot of um refineries
ammunition dumps not only in Crimea but
but also in Russia um we know the Kirch
bridge is is um is probably the Achilles
Hill of Russia um it’s it’s so much in
the sight for Ukraine to attack and so
likely that it it will do at some stage
that that would really cut the head off
the crier snake now as you mentioned the
Black Sea fleet has gone there is no um
virtually no Naval pres presence in the
Blacky now which gives Ukraine freedom
of maneuver W which will be critical the
big question is could they break through
the sovin line the defensive lines which
have been so difficult at the moment um
and if they can I think yes they
certainly could take Crimea um and
whether you know whether that will help
Quicken the end of the war or not is a
case to to to consider but I I don’t
think taking crime a is completely out
of the question and um you know it it
could be a very key sort of um element
in the future uh to to to get some sort
of meaningful piece so yeah I I would
say crime a is is is up for grabs and if
um Ukraine gets all the kit that it
needs um that it’s coming through now it
might be a in a better position to do
that and if it gets you know the Ukraine
Iron Dome we’ve been talking about and
gains their superiority then yeah again
it’s another bit of the jigsa making it
more lightly so I wouldn’t write off
primier at this stage just to go back to
to the issue of the West taking the
threat posed by Russia increasingly
serious ious ly obviously we we’ve seen
last week for example the UK making a
pledge to increase its defense spending
by 2030 and there seems to be a general
realization that European countries do
need to spend more on defense now that
doesn’t necessarily help Ukraine that’s
more to do with their own defense but
but do you think we are seeing a Tipping
Point now heh where where there is more
of a realization that actually Russia
does need to be confronted well this is
a really really interesting point I
think until quite recently you know
defense was not an election issue and
you know the election in this country
and the election in the states um in
November is you know is the the big
elephant in the room um you know if
people don’t see defense as an issue
then you know it could go very badly
wrong and I think both both the main
parties have now realized that actually
um you know and I think I I’ve written
recently you instead of going to the
polling booths in November we could all
be going to the recruitment centers to
pick up our kit to go and fight uh in
Europe so there hopefully and you know
it’s great thing that the Frontline uh
pushes this and keeps it in the news
hopefully people in the country are
realizing that that war in Europe is is
not a distant possibility I wouldn’t say
it’s the most likely possibility but it
it is possible and the the more we
ignore it the more likelihood it will
happen um as people are talking we’re in
a pre-war phase at the moment the way in
a pre-war phase to prevent war is to
show to your enemy that you are
preparing for it you are stronger than
them and you will you know follow
through your actions until very recently
I think Putin has looked at us and
looked at our conventional deterrence
and has not been deterred and we’ve got
a catch up to do um you know we we have
paid lip service to our conventional
deterrence since the end of the Cold War
whereas Putin has done absolutely the
opposite now we we have been caught
mapping um what on Earth and and it’s a
political thing I’m afraid you know it’s
one sees and I’m sure you discuss it all
the time people are generally more
concerned about climate change they’re
more concerned about the clost of living
crisis they’re more concerned about
what’s happening uh in Gaza but they’re
not seeing what’s happening on their
doorstep that actually all those things
if we get the defense wrong and don’t
have a a credible conventional
deterrence those things could be
horrifically irrelevant because we will
we will be at War and what we must
absolutely do and for somebody like
myself who spent the last 35 years of my
life on the battlefields of the world
you know I’ve seen war and and you don’t
want it you’ve got to avoid it if at all
possible and um we are only just waking
up to it and let’s hope we’re not too
late just finally hey we’re having this
conversation at the end of April what
does a good may look like for Ukraine
well a good May is is the front lines
not moving anymore than than we’re see
at the moment a good May sees the f-16s
arriving and creating with with all the
other air defense and the long range
missiles some sort of air superiority
for Ukraine because once Ukraine has a
superiority it can start maneuvering on
the ground now I don’t think that’s
going to start happening in May but I
think the the psychological message that
it will show send out to the Ukrainian
people um who have felt for the last six
months they felt on their own you know
they say what you know why why why
should young kids in Ukraine fight when
America is and everybody else isn’t
giving them the hard way to do it so a
good May is the rebuilding of morale in
Ukraine and getting them back on the
front foot rather than purely on the
defensive and uh a bad May would be a
significant Russian incursion and
offensive and a bad May would would have
us all really uh looking at the
potential to fight um the Russians
ourselves so let let’s hope that the
good May happens and not the bad May
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“We know the Kerch bridge is the Achilles’ heel of Russia. It’s so much in the sights for Ukraine to attack and so likely that it will do at some stage. So that would really cut the head of the Crimea snake.”

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon says Ukraine could “certainly take Crimea” following the US aid package, including ATACMS long range missiles which could be used to target the Kerch bridge.

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