Crimea is ‘at risk’ of being blasted by ATACMS launched by Ukraine | Frontline

Crimea is ‘at risk’ of being blasted by ATACMS launched by Ukraine | Frontline

the aim is to ensure if the ukrainians do have to engage in ground combat they’re doing it in a much leveler playing field than what they’re doing now that they’re able to kill as many Russians and Destroy as much as their artillery before they’re actually able to engage in Grand combat which is very similar to the aan battle concept that NATO used in the Cold War so are we talking about potential targets deep inside Crimea perhaps the CCH Bridge as well well certainly uh most of crier can be held at risk I think airfields I think Logistics nodes uh kers Bridge might be part that headquarters but also in Southern and Eastern Ukraine so it allows the ukrainians to Target every Square centimeter of their territory which is being occupied by the Russians which was not the case before now hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio with me Kau and today we’re catching up with Major General Mick Ryan Mick served with the Australian Army for more than 30 years he’s commanded units from Platoon to Brigade level and in January 2018 he took command of the Australian defense College in CRA he’s a junk fellow at the center for strategic and international studies in Washington DC he writes his own substack and has just launched a new podcast focusing on Ukraine and geopolitics Mick good to have you back on front line thank you very much for your time thanks it’s great to be with you again you’re you’re recently back from Ukraine your fourth visit in 18 months what can you tell us about your visit well I think I have to uh kind of say upfront that I was there just before the US supplemental was passed so uh my my insights I guess are Guided by that um you know ukrainians are are fatigued and frustrated at that point in time particularly with the US Congress but I think too that now the last six months you’ve seen the counter offensive fail you saw the zi zalinsky civil military crisis you saw uh the debate over the mobilization bill which has just been passed but with thousands of amendments um so you know I think after 27 months fair enough the ukrainians are pretty pretty fatigued and um you know it’s hard to see a light at the tunnel at the moment that uh isn’t a Russian armed division uh so you know that is kind of the sense I got it’s not defeated uh it’s just you know a grim realization that this is going to take sometime and as you say it it was before that momentous 61 billion US dollar Aid de deal was was passed and was agreed and signed off by President Biden can you just tell me a little bit more about what the purpose of your visit were was who did you meet and what were you doing exactly well each of my visits have had two purposes one to talk to her variety of military and government officials as well as think tanks and journalists to get a sense of where the war is and its potential trajectories uh but the second purpose is about learning about Ukraine I mean it’s it’s a a real Revelation for me from the bottom of the world Ukraine isn’t a country a lot of lot of Australians know a lot about so it has a dual purpose every time this time got to speak to pretty senior military and government officials at the ministerial level National Security advisor to president zinski to get a a fairly holistic view of where the war is at um and where it might be trending at the moment and what did they tell you well they told us lots of different things some things in confident something happy to share but you know one of the important insights is you know what is Ukraine’s theory of Victory one of our senior interlocutor sigo what does winning this look like for Ukraine and I think that is an excellent question it’s probably a question only the ukrainians can answer but it’s one that the West should help them with uh both in formulating what that looks like and then helping them with the re resources to win it we had some very interesting conversations with a minister for strategic Industries very Dynamic a very competent Minister who’s really managed to turn around indigenous defense production in Ukraine tripled it in 202 to doubled it again last year it’s at the point now where they had more capacity than they can fund uh weapons for so that’s a pretty good place to be in uh most Western countries are nowhere near that in their defense product um and we had the opportunity to talk with a bunch of students at K of University to get to go to a very different kind of audience um you know most of them were in uniform go to a Western University that would never be the case but in Ukraine you have young students who are both training to be in the military and training their minds as University students it kind of reminds you that this is a societal fight it’s not like the wars that I participated in Iraq and Afghanistan where a very small proportion of the country went back and did multiple tours and everyone else went on with their lives Ukraine is a country that has been fundamentally changed because everyone in some degree is part of the war effort or has a relative who is when you say Mick that one of the the interesting conversations you had was about what victory what winning the war looked like with those senior figures did you get a feeling of that there was a consensus of what that is well I think you know there’s a consensus on the key elements the most important B is defeating Russia Ukraine uh the narrative from Western politicians that you know we need to defend Ukraine or whereas in in it for as long as it takes pretty meaning meaningless uh what we really need is a statement of intent which is about beating Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine it’s not about defeating Russia as a nation or regime change or any of those things it’s about defeating Russia and Ukraine and Ukraine getting back to it 91 borders now there’s a whole lot of other things that would be involved in that whether it’s the return of refugees decup uh security guarantees whether it’s as a member or or relationship with NATO and membership of the EU I mean all these would have to be part of a theory of victory that Encompass both winning the war but also winning the peace that follows and the director of the CIA Bill Burns has said the the very real risk of the ukrainians losing on the battlefield now uh by the end of the year or Putin being able to dictate the terms of the political settlement of a political set settlement has been averted by this Aid deal how do you see the battlefield situation at the moment well it’s certainly very grim uh I don’t think it’s disastrous that the ukrainians are still demonstrating the ability to um uh exchange and brigades on the battlefield uh and rotate them which is a very positive sign that’s not something they’ve uh been doing uh previously so I I think what they’re doing in the East is they’re defending and they’ve had to reconcile two really difficult points one is keeping their army which is severely under until they can have mobilization kick in and the other point is keeping their territory now there’s uh military and political imperatives for both but I think under General cki and I think uh president ziny has accepted that sometimes to preserve the lives of their soldiers to preserve their army to fight another day you have to give up a bit of territory and I think that’s really what we’re seeing happen in the East now we’re not seeing the battle of where there was this almost a bloody mindedness about we must keep it I think now there’s a more pragmatic realization that uh we have to keep our army and sometimes that means giving up a bit of territory we can take it back because they have be and in making those decisions on whether to pay a high price to hold ground or or to move back has the knowledge that more military age is going to be coming make those decisions clearer and how do you weigh up those decisions well I think the the knowledge of that military AIDS had a couple of really important impacts the first one clearly got a morale impact for the government for the military and for Citizens it means they’re not being abandoned by the United States or at least not yet um so he’s had a a very significant morale impact but you know the flow of weapon missions is desperately needed we’ve seen very significant rationing particularly with artillery Munitions but also with air defense which is the Russians have been able to get the combat aircraft up and launch these long range very destructive Glide bombs so knowing that there are Munitions on the way to uh have an impact on that to reduce that to degrade Russia’s capacity is very important I think it’s also worth noting that you know the ukrainians are going to have to mobilize a lot more soldiers that’s what this mobilization bill is about support just from the ukrainians but from a lot of NATO countries and Equipment uh which is equipment they don’t currently have and a PE key piece of information that that’s come out since this Aid bill was passed is that the long range us attacks had secretly been supplied to Ukraine and had been used on two occasions against the Russian Airfield in Crimea on the 17th of April and Russia’s claiming to shut down more destined to Crimea since um what kind of threat do they pose on the battlefield and do you think this is a pattern that’s going to be repeated targeting crier well these eight teams have a much longer range than the previous version that they were given last October um this version has a range out to about 300 kilm we believe we’re not quite sure which variance they were given but it’s probably a mix of the unitary Warhead which is one big Warhead now and the cluster munition which is lots and lots of submunitions um what this will will permit the ukrainians to do is Target Russian operational targets and when I say operational targets these are targets that aren’t engaged in direct combat now uh and aren’t you know back in Russia they’re somewhere in between its headquarters its Logistics nodes it’s Reserve troop locations and the aim is to ensure if the ukrainians do have to engage in ground combat they’re doing it in a much leveler playing field than what they’re doing now that they’re able to kill as many Russians and Destroy as much of their artillery before they’re actually able to engage in Grand combat which is very similar to the airlane battle concept that NATO used in the Cold War so are we talking about potential targets deep inside Crimea perhaps the CCH Bridge as well well certainly uh most of Crimea can be held at risk I think airfields I think Logistics nodes uh kers Bridge might be part that headquarters but also in Southern and eastern Ukraine so it allows the ukrainians to Target every square cm of their territory which is being occupied by the Russians which was not the case before now it’s also worth noting that the aams has uh some fairly clever trickery involved which allows it to degrade the ability of Russian air defenses to intercept them uh so that’s another reason why these things are very important in the Ukrainian Armory at the moment right now uh the Russians will know there’s a small window before uh Ukraine reaps the benefits of this military aid arriving what options will it be weighing up well it’ll be up you know how much can it throw at the ukrainians right now I mean it hasn’t gone through another mobilization process we’re expecting that they will but they still able to recruit 25 to 30,000 uh you know generally places their losses and a little bit more so they will be uh getting as many forces comat as they can right now while the ukrainians are what at what the Russians think while the ukrainians are at their weakest um we should recall we thought the ukrainians weren’t going to hold out very long in 2022 and they achieved amazing things so you know we shouldn’t be riding them off uh but the Russians are doing things like moving first line uh parachute divisions vdv unit from the south to the east at the moment which is an indication that the East will be their and it’s where the Russians think they have the greatest chance of making some kind of significant breakthrough you mentioned earlier um about uh being in Ukraine it was interesting from your your perspective as an Australian the bottom of the world as you put it um what kind of perspective can you throw on this um given that you’re outside Europe and and and outside the US well it’s a fight not just for Ukraine even know that is the most pressing uh need for us to support the ukrainians uh it is about defending Ukraine but more broadly it’s about the stability of European uh the European security architecture more broadly you know that includes uh whether it’s Old Europe as as a for American defense secretary called it or the baltics places like Poland uh Scandinavia it will have a significant an impact on them as well places like Australia I think need to better understand that what Russia’s doing here isn’t just about Ukraine and it’s actually not just about Europe this is about a four authoritarians who’ve decided the time has come to challenge what they see as the West which is all of us so what happen Ukraine what happens in Europe matters in Asia and vice versa I think countries like poing like Japan have been very open about accepting that I think Australia as we’ve seen from its most recent National defense strategy is very keen to focus just on its own backyard I think that will backfire I think it’s strategically immature and in some cases probably a moral as well and one of the things that you write about in one of your recent substacks is about the importance of strategic communication Communications during this war and how well Ukraine did that in the first year of the war and when you describe um the way that Australia needs to understand how important is this on a global aspect what kind of message do you think Ukraine needs to be putting out there right now well there’s a there’s a few important messages firstly you know if if we’re not able to defend Ukraine we’re going to see more of what’s already happening in occupied Ukraine there’s enormous evidence of how the Russians are torturing raping murdering kidnapping people from the occupied territories 40 million people will be subject to that if we don’t help Ukraine win this war so that’s first and foremost there’s a moral imperative secondly there’s an imperative to defend democracy wherever it is it’s it’s a very precious thing uh it’s not something that’s been a possession of humans for thousands of years it’s something that we’ve developed at at Great uh you know at Great expense over the last few centuries and I think it’s something that’s worth defending I’m not sure though whether democracies are willing to bear that cost and we need to explain to our peoples whether it’s Australians or otherwise that you know yes it’s tough to do that yes is expensive uh but it’s the lesser of two evils but I don’t see governments really engaging in these tough discussions because at the end of the day it requires trade-offs between domestic social imperatives and International Security imperatives and for most governments even in Europe still domestic social imperatives seem to Trump the International Security ones and not only that though uh Mick you you also described this constant drum beats of the escalation of Terror by the West in this war their fear that um sending some of the weapons that Ukraine needs at the time it crucially needs those weapons is in some way going to escalate in a way that that we are fearful of has that attitude changed I’m not sure that it has I think our risk tolerance might have increased a bit I think the recent comments by French president Marron have been very interesting and I really like that version of President mron we’re seeing at the moment because he’s probably the first Western leader that’s kind of forced Putin to think oh wow someone’s talking about NATO boots on the ground they haven’t done that before but all the way through this war we’ve seen this escalation Terror it’s like oh we can’t give them artillery then we give them artillery or we can’t give them tanks then we give them tanks I like we’re going to do it let’s just do it and do it in a way that’s speedy and and allows this stuff to have an uh rather than kind of being a lagging capability I think a really important indicator of um how fearful some governments are of escalation at the moment is the most recent us statements that China has crossed a red line on the amount of dual use Technologies it’s providing to Russia in this war and that it has to stop it so I think you know we’ll see out of the Biden Administration is it willing to put its money where its mouth is uh with China Crossing those red lines or is it going to take the Obama Administration approach lays out red lines and when the adversary crosses them it just looks the other way what kind of action would you like the Biden ad Administration to take if it if China does continue to cross those red lines in supporting Russia well I think there’s there’s more I can do on the technology front um you know you you got to wonder how how many other American companies might be dissuaded from dealing with although a lot of them at the moment are leaving of their own valtion because of um some of the laws that China brought in in the last few years so you know the Americans are probably going to have to be pretty creative in this because as we’ve seen sanctions against Russia have hurt them a bit but they haven’t had the full impact that we’d hope they would I think too that you know the US will be looking at those who export other high Technologies to China and and might be twisting some arms there but at the end of the day it will be up to the Biden Administration to decide whether it wants to act on need have cross these red lines and then of course whatever comes afterwards after November um finally something something that’s very pertinent to you at the potential expansion of the orcus military partnership uh of Australia the UK and us to include South Korea as a pillar two partner as I understand it that would not mean it’s it mean it’s not involved in the provision of conventionally armed nuclear power submarines but more the development of things like Hypersonic uh missiles underwater drones Cyber Technology um this of course is deplored by uh president G what effect do you think this potential expansion will have in the region and why is it expanding I think it’d be a great move uh and of course the Chinese would hate it because they want to deal with each country individually they don’t want to deal with thei because they know together we’re much stronger than them um you know we saw recent speculation that Japan might join the lement of orcus I think that would be a fabulous move they have an enormously sophisticated Broad and deep research and development uh capacity that uh outstrips uh Australia certainly potentially Britain as well they would bring an enormous amount to orus pillar 2 and let’s not forget they’ve been a very responsible International citizen for many many decades since the end of the second World War I think Korea are in the same boat uh they’re responsible International citizen uh both Australia and the US in particular had very close and significant trading relationships with Korea I think for Australia it’s our second or third largest trading partner and once again they have a very sophisticated R&D uh capacity and they bu design and build their own submarines warships aircraft armored vehicles so I think they bring a lot to it it really it gets down to the security around that uh sharing of Technology uh but politically I think it makes all sense in the world I said I said un finally but I just have one last question um to what extent do you think what has happening in Ukraine right now and how the next 12 24 months uh uh roll out will impact the security and what happens and the attitudes to to your part of the world I think it has a few impacts first and foremost you’re seeing Ukraine as as a huge battle lab for new technologies that are going to spin off all um you know one example is we saw Iran use exactly the same kind of tactics against Israel a couple of weeks ago that Russia’s been using with its drone and missile attacks against Ukraine that’s just one example I think you’ll see other examples when it comes to information Warfare the use of drones and things like that now Ukraine and the indopacific very different uh terrain weather uh geography and politics but I think there are enough lessons there about leadership about strategic decision making about industrial bases that they will translate into the indopacific very well m great to speak to you thank you very much for your time thank you great to talk to you you’ve been watching Frontline for times radio with me K jao if you’d like to support us you can subscribe now or you can listen to times radio or go to the times.co.uk my thanks to our producer today Morgan berdick and to you for watching bye for now

“Most of Crimea can be held at risk, as I think logistics nodes, the Kerch Bridge, but also in southern and eastern Ukraine.”

ATACMS from the US will allow Ukraine to target “every square centimetre” of “Russian operational targets”, says Major General Mick Ryan.

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