This Will Ultimately Decide Who WINS – Ukraine War Map Analysis & News Update

This Will Ultimately Decide Who WINS – Ukraine War Map Analysis & News Update

g day Legends I hope that you’re having a fantastic day and a fantastic start to the week and specially I’ve put on my nicest suit for you I’ve lost a little bit of weight recently and actually fit back into this so that does feel pretty good now we have a lot to go over I don’t know how long this video is going to be if the number down below starts with a four I’m sorry I apologize but you’re going to be here for the long run or do the maps and leave but of course we’re going to look at the M Maps we’re going to look at some footage some strikes we need to talk in length about China what’s happened between Xi Jinping in France at the moment and macron and what he is actually said little bits and pieces are being quoted out but we’re going to talk about what the full thing actually said and then we need to look at attritional Warfare prolonged Warfare and see how we can apply this to what we’re seeing on the front line and reading through this I was like I just want to present all of this to you so you guys can make up your own mind and go is this exactly what we’re seeing on the front line as a strategy to have overall success in this war regardless in this war regardless of which way it goes which way the Border moves I mean the Frontline border the cost of human life is just going to increase and I fear exponentially over the next 12 24 months and we have no idea how long this war is actually going to continue for and I fear that wherever this then ends we’re going to think well we could have had that end half a million men ago wherever it has lay but we will see so straight off the bat I want to talk about this video captioned in my telegram of which you should come and join as um the girl that tells you that her friend is not interested but we see this bloody Behemoth of a thing I’m guessing on a t72 body as We Know with t-72s the amount of just hulls of these is just crazy that’s why we see things like um the Terminator on a t t72 Hull and all these others but we can see a mine roller at the front here we can see the gun the gun will have very little movement right or left but we’ll still have up and down of course we can steer then side to side with brake steer on the tank but these LP mobiles Behemoth whatever you want to call it turtle tanks laugh at it all you will these are being successful on the front line I’ll post some footage up in the telegram of the movements then into specifically cren ariva a place where Russia couldn’t break in for months many many many months and then these have allowed that break in of course these are jam-packed with sensitive electronic warfare equipment which by shrapnel can be taken out because it uses a type of antenna radar as well and as well just Extra Protection setting off um shape charges or drones coming in and guys in here as well we see getting dropped off so laugh at it you laugh people laughed at the C cage everyone took the piss out of that now bloody every tank regardless is running a cope cage you see the Maas in Israel arguably the best tank in the world with cope cages on them and the truth is in this environment it is working and at some point I believe we will see Ukraine with this tactic of building up on tanks at some point in the future if we see and when we see Ukraine back on the offensive same thing with the dragon tee the concrete bloody Toblerone looking things of ah this won’t do [ __ ] well we now know Ukraine’s putting them all over the country now uh another thing I just want to correct on yesterday uh and it’s probably my eyesight more than anything or just my attention to it was uh the strike on the bridge down in chasar so GE located to right here so of course this is Shas ofar the front line is sitting right down here somewhere I’ll actually show you on the map so if we come down in into this is divka come down shasa we’re talking right where this Gap in the trees is here this uh makeshift new bridge that was made to cross troops into defend over on this crov road of life now more clear footage has come out if you remember yesterday I said that there’s two possibilities here either that Russia struck this this bridge here and took it out or Ukraine on withdrawal took out the bridge themselves which you know makes sense on a tactical withdrawal from an area now what I failed to actually see in this was what was up wasn’t part of bridge it was actually a dump truck full of gravel or something here so it was actually trying to dump it into here as you can see there’s been another load or two previously to try and F this to try and get across so what we can presume here was this was a Russian strike otherwise Ukraine wouldn’t take out a bridge that they wanted we can see then the footage of this then being struck as well as they strike then this dump truck in here and the far better footage quality here we can see clearly that this is actually the truck has been struck there as well making another problem to try and get this bridge back but it shows us as well the amount of ISR still operating over here by Russia out over um nonoccupied territory so that is interesting as well now we’re going to talk and look at the maps get an idea of what is going on and I will say we don’t have that many updates today but someone did send me a CNN article um talking about that there are people on Ukrainian bloggers losing some faith in the mod’s reporting and they’re quoting deep State saying people are going well there’s gated footage of Russian soldiers here and the map doesn’t display it uh and that was CNN saying this now of course here is Ukraine the capital of ke the red areas occupied since 22 and the purple since 2014 so now over 10 years some areas of which you may want to be familiar with in the coming weeks is hak sui belgrad KK if we see that North group cross from Russia but I’m still not convinced everyone else is saying it’s confirmed it’s confirmed I’m still not convinced that that is what exactly is going to happen and we’ll talk about that at the end uh anyway what we want to look at first is actually a little bit of footage up near Sloans and Kor so we see that this is a power station in here now this has been struck and new footage has come out uh shared by Russian sources today so if we come down Sloans we can look in here and we’re talking this power plant here so how far behind the line are we now of course this is always rough because of my dodgy clicking let’s go 22 km so well within and as we know now that katos sovans these are within Glide bomb range and many other um pieces of equipment also now we see the footage here so you can see zoom in on power plan area very hard to see with that coming but you can see then where those pwns are and we can see a stri off to the side here against what looks to be like Transformers and electrical equipment then a strike against again I don’t bloody know power plants but it’s hard to tell but any explosions like this will have significant damage in these areas and we know that Russia again is targeting critical electronic infrastructure like this and jeel use Target to try and limit the production of the electricity and we know that is important in war now let’s come back out so you get an idea of where we are don’t ask oblas and we’ll come down where most eyes are at the moment is what I’m calling the aiva front but to be honest we’re going to have to start calling it another front line as this is moving further and further away and as this has expanded and ballooned out it is reducing the possibility for a successful offensive here to just cut this off now this aren helli in here Pro probably butcher that we have seen withdrawals from here Ukrainian withdrawals and this is proving to be more and more costly these withdrawals we see a video today of an m113 I won’t show you but very costly in here as well as that withdrawal on foot middle of the day straight line troops out of here getting hit by artillery and getting ambushed retreating can be incredibly costly in here we don’t see any change up on this exact front than today but I wanted to talk about how important that area actually is but let’s have a look here so we see further expansion out to the south towards like sort of towards or MK I guess but expanding that control out further there and then we move down and near n this open area here we do have a new advancement just out part over so Rush by this map said that they’ have crossed then this Creek line and are moving up to the fre line in here further closing of this and I think Russia will want to move and consolidate this whole front line of open territory and this could move quickly through this open territory and fall back into urban centers as Russia has the advantage in artillery tanks and numbers open ground is not where Ukraine want to fight they want to fight in closed terrain currently then we have to see just from the south of Peri another Russian movement here just closing up between this gap between nelki pki other Maps will show different amount of close up in here but what Surak has said is Ukraine has reentered nelski on defense in here as well now we don’t actually have a a ukra sorry a suriak map update on this Frontline area nothing in noay livka disappointingly I think for the credibility of this map and this is destroying the credibility of this map currently is this in crua that there is geolocated footage of flags being raised tanks moving in and out in crer hka outside of where even the gray zone is being shown on this map and I think that is disappointing and I think the creators of this map need to bloody update it to maintain The credibility and legitimacy of the map of course we know signed deals with the mod so Ukraine should know exactly where this is sitting in but we do know the control is far more significant than what is being shown here and this is the area that we’re seeing those turtle tanks now another very important if not the most important depending on the axis advancement from Russia and many are saying we many uh uh people who watch me as saying somewhere I play down and I shouldn’t is up in K Lia so this is up in the Northeast on the border of lukans and H oblast that Russia is making some ground out of here and if we step back through the days we can see over the past you know few weeks if this map will load this movement through kiska sorry my computer’s going to be slow and then forward and then to what we then see today making some ground as well let’s have a look we’re talking depending on 1 and a half K to over a kilometer of ground which is significant on any front showing that the majority of K Liv can now has come under Russian control this whole Frontline area is very very important and has held and been stagnant for a large amount of time so movement there that’s not shown today by suriak but having a Russian Advance on the Ukrainian map we can confirm that it’s at least there if that then makes sense now it might take me a minute to find the next spot because it’s not somewhere we talk about a lot but we can see on the border between luhansk and then H ablast we have a look for St miva here and we can see that suriak only update today saying that there was a Russian movement here so this K Misha I don’t know however that’s going to be pronounced in just this area here so let’s actually have a look see if we can line this up see where this padic goes that just in here this road runs and bends down this padic that there was a closeup of territory in here that Russia had made some gain rushan Army new advances east of stal mka so in this area right here somewhere that we haven’t seen any movement on this map but haven’t seen any movement for a while either now I just need to go back up north as I have forgotten something that this movement is further confirmed by another Ukrainian Source being Noel reports of a closeup of territory in here what I will say is have a look at how much different these two maps are so this Cotler in here that if we look at where this road then bends this is bending the road and this road running through here so it isn’t showing the this ballooning out to the west from uh K Liv itself because we can see see this tree line that is there so this should maybe be more like this but it is showing far more to the South so these two maps these both Ukrainian Maps aren’t really lining up now that is all the movements we actually have on the map today although reports we know took a week or so off has updated his map to show down in kinky here and always interesting that this isn’t shown as blue we know Ukraine has expanded control here and has also has soldiers across here so we don’t know why this isn’t blue on this map but has shown this movement across here and expanding control just updating what exactly his map is showing from wherever he takes his sources now what will say is the rest of this video from here is going to be fairly heavily worthy but I believe very very important now we’re going to talk about maon and China I believe and I think many will agree many will disagree that’s fine that’s the whole point of being open media like this is and you can comment and I’ll never turn off the comments except when I forgot to leave them on once you can disagree and I’ve obviously changed in my reporting and beliefs throughout many different things but I believe that China could very well be the fulcrum in this conflict and they have become over the past say decade and especially from this war and you know Russia using a lot of assets far more of a military threat than Russia not only military power but economic as well and further reach out as well as population now speaking of Russian power we have to look back at the Soviet Union and many scholars actually say that the Soviet Union always had more of ideological threat to the West than it did militarily and to this day still 30 years on from the collapse of the Soviet Union we do still see many students young people and old and I believe more and more wearing communist symbolism preaching Marxist leninist or even stalinist ideas there’s a bloody bar down the road for me if anyone lives in Port Adelaide here in semor that currently has out the front a hammer and sickle painted on the wall a pride flag a Palestinian flag and an indigenous flag being flown not sure if everything lines up between different uh ideas there but just regardless but let’s have a look at China and we do know that China is massively growing and especially in Navy so this has been quoted everywhere but we to go full through the full thing full text of xiin Ping’s sign article on French media now a lot of this is just about relations and everything else so have gone through and found what is actually relevant to what we are talking about here this year mark 70 Ann 70th anniversary of five principles of peaceful coexistence seven decades ago Chinese Premier juu La um put forth five principles for the first time mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial Integrity Mutual uh non-aggression Mutual non-interference in each other’s International as internal affairs equality and mutual benefit and peaceful coexistence China has Faithfully uh practiced the five PR principles of peaceful coexistence over the past 70 plus years since its founding New China never provoked a war or occupied an inch of foreign land now uh he says China is the only country among the major nuclear States that had that is committed to a no first use of nuclear weapons although if we go back to some of what Ma has said about the survival of China with nuclear weapons as well there was definitely a threat underlined that and I just want to have a look and talk about nuclear weapons for a second now I’m a [ __ ] dork so I bloody um put sticky notes all through my books but I just want to talk about two things from Kissinger’s World Order about the use of nuclear weapons and proliferation of nuclear weapons but saying and this goes back to this like theic use of nuclear weapons is is the juice sort of worth the squeeze but the penalties of military conflict were considered less than the penalties of defeat but by contrast the nuclear Age based itself on a weapon whose use would impose costs out of proportion to any conceivable benefit so the benefit of nuclear weapons will have far will be far more costly than the Tactical use that’s why we say nukes have no tactical Advantage but massive strategic Advantage as well as um diplomatic Advantage if Russia did not have nuclear weapons there would be no no second thought about deploying NATO soldiers into Ukraine or these weapons or anything else in there at least in my belief and this is where I’ll say that nuclear weapons have saved far so far have saved far far more lives than they have taken saying um there’s a classic nuclear dilemma even when nuclear weapons reduce the likelihood of War they would gigantically magnify its ferocity where War to occur now that is you can take as you wish and I do say for you should have a look at what M says about nuclear weapons and the population of China and India as well and how that disaster would unfold but maybe in their favor long term as well it is worth noting that countries like China and other countries have had a far more long run than say say somewhere like Australia and see an eternal sort of existence anyway China understands the repercussions uh of the Ukraine crisis now the the reason I’ve underlined crisis here is a lot of people have picked up on that the refusal to say war or aggression or Russian aggression on the people of Europe now again war was not declared I myself I will say War but that is interesting to point out there as China has really been tried to maintain a neutrality China did not start the Ukraine crisis nor is it a party to or a participant in it and what we can say many have pointed this out to me in my telegram saying well China have you know given Russia weapons and whatever they’re Towing the same line as the UK as as the West saying well we’re not a participa in the Ukraine war therefore and what I will say is the amount of support given by the West to Ukraine compared to China to Russia it’s not comparable we know China has supplied a lot of duel use items so um electrical components that can go into weapons as well as ISR stuff which we know is being weaponized as well as Russia is buying a lot from CH as well so you can’t really say that is then Aid if that makes sense but we’re not seeing Chinese tanks or Chinese fighter aircraft Rock up on the front lines and if that were to happen the war has changed significantly and I think then would’ have to have a real second consideration of what’s going on China has been playing a constructive role in striving for peaceful settlement of the crisis I have made many appeals among others observing the purpose and the principles of the UN Charter respecting sovereignty and territorial Integrity of all countries so of course it’s what we hear a lot about for Ukraine was territorial integrity and sovereignty and addressing the legitimate security concerns of all sides of course Russia and Ukraine have legitimate security concerns now whether you think they’re legitimate or not is it doesn’t matter it does the country the people in that country and the leadership see that as a legitimate security concern same as with us with the the Monroe deal in in America I should say us but in America they would see a foreign power of a large power on their border as a legitimate cons security concern even if others would not so Russia has security concerns so obviously Ukraine does they got bloody invaded But I’ve stressed that nuclear weapons must not be used and a nuclear war must not be fought China has delivered to Ukraine many shipments of humanitarian AIDS and sent a special representative many times to mediate among other countries concerned the longer the Ukraine crisis drags on the greater harm it will do to Europe and the world now this is not only when people say Europe you have to consider that the west of Russia is in Europe too and the longer this goes on the more harm is being done to Europe economies the rest of the world just the men fighting in this regardless of the patch on their shoulder and that in a global economy this is having large effect the more this goes on and of course the risk of where War can escalate or deescalate from this as well as I and I do believe at wherever this war ends it will really challenge security and E economic um facilities that we have in have at the moment around the world China hopes that peace and stability will return to Europe at an early date we stand ready to work with France and the whole International Community to find a reasonable way out of the crisis so of course China want to find and negotiate some solution then to what is happening but as we know a solution a negotiation at this point in time would mean that there is a territorial shift and then if Ukraine was to agree to if Ukraine had a territorial shift and they didn’t say that that is a legitimate border things like NATO and the EU then come into question of the joining of that and further down the line actions but we will see and however this war ends we know regardless of where the front line goes that it has to end at some point and um well I guess it could go on for decades but you know there will be an end at some point and there will still have to be some diplomatic uh actions there and China will be heavily heavily involved in this now let’s have a look over this now this is from Russi the Royal United Services Institute which is the oldest um of the United Kingdom’s um think tanks so and leading defense think tank now this is going to be long I apologize for it but if you’re here well stick with me because I believe this is very very important now these aren’t going to line up fantastically for some reason number eight is not sitting there with me I must have an extra space in here let’s have a look at that there we go fixed my issue so let’s talk about this and what we’re going to look at is prolonged War attrition mobilization and have a look and see how we can apply what is happening here to this war so number one from Russy if the West is serious about the possibility of a great power conflict it needs to take a hard look at its capacity to wage a protracted war and to pursue a strategy focused on attrition rather than maneuver attritional uh Wars require The Art of War and a for with Force Centric approach unlike Wars of maneuver which are terrain focused they are rooted in massive Industrial capacity to enable the replacement of losses geographical depth to absorb a series of defeats techn technological conditions that prevent rapid ground movement uh in attritional Wars military operations are shaped by a state’s ability to replace losses and generate new formations even when there is a series of defeats that take place but not tactical and operational Maneuvers the side that accepts the attritional nature of war and focuses on destroying enemy forces rather than gaining territory is most likely to win and we have seen Ukraine and Russia both Implement to a degree this strategy but I believe both Ukraine and Russia have at points failed on this strategy with the launch of the 2023 counter offensive which I think could be a fulm for the entirety of the War what was probably launched early needing some PR win but was focused on that maneuver War in then a protracted attritional war of time and we saw then the failure of this now he says here the West is not prepared for this kind of War to most western experts attritional strategy is counterintuitive now what I will say about this top part here is this is what many people saying Ukraine should should have built up massive defense early should have mobilized everyone early and focused on attritional war rather than regain of territory but historically the West preferred the short Winner Takes all Clash of professional armies we’ve seen recent war games of one month of fighting the possibility that the war would go on never entered the discussion so leading that it’s going to be quick not years and years war of attrition are treated as exemptions something to be avoided at all costs and generally products of leaders ineptitude unfortunately Wars be near P poers are likely to be attritional thanks to a large pool of resources available to replace initial losses and we have seen Russia be able to these large losses in the beginning of that maneuver and then we see the replacement of this the attritional nature of combat including the erosion of professionalism due to casualties levels the battlefield no matter which army started with better trained forces this is very important we’ve seen many senior people in the say the Australian military point at this that the the original High trained military they’ll be there for the shock of the first wave if we step into something large then that will be a Tred down that will be eroded and those more professionals will then be to train mobilized Reserve soldiers from there but there will be a leveling of the battlefield and we see this at the moment with a lot of mobilized guys who were not in the military before this war now fighting as the conflict drags on the war is won by economies not armies so what we have here is two large economies we can have Ukraine with the West supporting but as well that support can be cut away or can lift and drop you have Peaks and troughs support Russia has their economy but it is then with them with much less allies than Ukraine but because it is all domestic and it is all part of one element that doesn’t have the same Peaks and troughs and then of course with domestically produced equipment but um States the grasp this fights to war via traditional strategy aimed at exhausting enemy’s resources while preserving their own are more likely to win so exhausting your enemy and keeping your own more likely to win the fastest way to lose a war of attrition is to focus on maneuver expending valuable resources on near-term territorial objectives so trying to outmaneuver your enemy to get short-term objectives territorial wins PR victories but not focused on D trting your mil your adversary down we’ve seen both Russia and Ukraine fall into this this trap we haven’t seen since Bak divka massive movements from Russia either and since the 2022 sorry 2023 Ukrainian offensive we haven’t seen any large movements there so it has been a while now almost a year since that the economic discussion the wars of attrition are won by economies enabling Mass mobilization of militaries via their industrial sectors armies expand rapidly during such a conflict requiring massive quantities of armored vehicles drones electronic products and other combat equipment because highend Weaponry Weaponry is very complex to manufacture and consumes fast resources a high low mixture of forces and weapons is imperative in order to win now this is something that I think the Soviets and the Russians have done well is massive amounts of worse equipment rather than just striving for the best of the best of the best I would you in a ground war th of these tanks or 50 better ones and we’ll go into the problems on this and I think that the West have much too great of a focus on as I’ve put in here research and development what of course in a capitalist system goes into shareholder price and construction and all of this of course that has and I’m not saying that then these weapons aren’t good but look at the weapons that have made such a huge difference recently in the front line basic things like Fabs landmines old RPGs clusters being strapped onto a drone ra other than these systems and these new systems whether we’re talking Baka drones javelins uh attacks um the GPS guided artillery systems seem to be relevant for 6 to8 weeks before counters are built all this and high weapons have exceptional performance but are difficult to manufacture so as we said if these systems get a counter in them then you’ve got a lot less more expensive equipment than you could have just had of dumb bombs or dumb shells especially when needed to arm a rapidly mobilizing Army and we’ve seen this is where the West is failure failing on the Ukraine front is just getting them the amount of stuff high-end weapons require high-end troops more training time and significantly harder to run so if you put an Abrams up against a t72 it will beat it every day of the bloody week but you need much more trained guys inside of that it’s much more expensive to run and therefore you’re going to have far less so maybe that’s not the best example but as well it is easier and faster to produce large numbers of cheap weapons and Munitions especially if their subcomponents are interchangeable with civilian Goods ensuring Mass quantity without the expansion of production lines new recruits also absorb simpler weapons faster allowing rapid generation of new formations or the reconstitution of existing ones and I think we’ve been with so many weapons focused too much on technology rather than just amount and I’ve said before the West is lucky we found out this problem in a localized war between Ukraine and Russia rather than if we stepped into a form war and went R of shells in two weeks fourth generation industrial output exists so it can be channeled into replacing losses and generating new formations this requires appropriate Doctrine and command and control structures there are two main methods the NATO most western armies and old Soviet model with most States somewhere in between but NATO armies highly professional backed by strong non-commissioned NCO core that the armies work on the back of ncos who will be in charge say of eight maybe 20 guys with extensive peace time military education and experience so full-time professional soldiers getting paid professional Wages that’s what they do for a job to stretch individual initiative delegating a great deal of leeway to Junior officers andos native formations enjoy tremendous agility and flexibility to exploit opportunities on a dynamic Battlefield this this is why this system works far better in uh a war uh like say Afghanistan or Iraq in additional War this method has a downside the officers and NC required to ex execute this Doctrine require extensive training so you have full-time guys it’s expensive um a US NCO takes years to develop and I’ve said this before from my experience as both a soldier and NCO that this takes a bloody long time it did six over six years in the military and I reckon I was most comp got really competent maybe two or three in a very professional Army and this is where I’ve put here this this NATO standard that the Ukrainian uh Eastern Commander was saying about one month of training for NATO you you’re not getting that this um Squad ler generally has three years in service depending that’s probably minimum platoon Sergeant has at least seven absolute minimum in an attritional War characterized by heavy casualties there simply isn’t time to replace lost ncos or generate them for new units the idea that civilians can be given a 3-month training course sergeants Chevrons and expected to perform at the same manner of a seven-year veteran is a recipe for disaster so this is where you have this problem of buildup professionalism when you’re relying on those weapons we spoke about before that you need a high amount of training to do me Mobility mechanized Warfare say or operate those highly complex uh pieces of equipment it’s harder to replace place the Soviet Union built its Army for large scale conflict with NATO it was intended to be able to rapidly expand by calling up Mass reserves every man Soviet Union went under two years of training blah blah blah the constant turnover of elicit Personnel precluded creation of western style NCO courts but generate uh generated a massive poll of semi-trained reserves in time of war the absence of reliable ncos created an officer Centric command model less flexible than NATO’s but more adaptable to large scale expansion required by traditional Warfare this is what we can see especially in the early days of Russia was no real NCO call you had one officer to like a 100 guys and things really went to [ __ ] but that can of course expand much faster they’re like looking here for attritional Warfare so these are all things of course there’s pros and cons and everything but things we need to look at and things we need to study when we’re seeing an attritional War a prolonged War now of 2 and a half years go on the most effective model is a mix of the two in which a state maintains a mediumsized professional Army together with a mass of draft available for mobilization and I think one of the big things that we’re going to have problems with say in Australia we’ve got low a low population and low enlisted Reserve numbers regardless but mobilization draft is is going to be incredibly difficult and Es especially I think the biggest factor in this could be with uh the diversity of the country as well this leads to a high low mixture professional pre-war forces from high in this Army become fire brigad so you’re better guys moving from sector to sector in battle to stabilize sitation conduct decisive attacks so you you better guys move around low end formations hold the line and gain experience slowly increasing their quality until they gain the capability to conduct offensive operations Victory Is attained by creating the highest lowend formations possible there’s many of examples of this down the line as well you can have these SF elements but if you don’t have that low end or you don’t have vice versa you run into problems for new units into combat capable soldiers instead of Civilian mobs is done through training and combat experience new formation should train for at least 6 months it’s advisable to disband several pre-war highin formations to spread professional soldiers among newly created low-end formations in order to raise initial quality this is what the Green beray in America absolutely uh uh specialize in is going in with local forces and lifting up that lowend uh mrtf did it in Afghanistan as well of course very different Wars but in this war we see Vagner when they’re disbanded going into bellus and lifting that low end as well as Vagner working with so the professional arm of Vagner you got to remember there’s multiple arms professional arm of Vagner working one guy to eight or one guy to 10 or whatever it was with the Russian paratroop of vdv to lift up that as well and of course this is what we are seeing to a degree in Ukraine but I think could be done significantly more with the amount of Western troops outside of Ukraine that could conduct training um as well that these operations of of training Ukrainian soldiers it could be much much if we’re really serious about training soldiers could be much much larger and will need to be once Ukraine actually announce the amount of guys they want to then mobilize but one thing I will say in this is we’re speaking about mobilizing 2 and a half years in and I believe that Ukraine look you’re fighting Russia the war is going to be against Russia we’ve seen Russia’s sacrifice their willing to make in war before of attrition of how many men they’re willing to lose Soviets as well that you don’t think early in the war that you’re fighting Russia we’re going to need men let’s mobilize everyone with two bloody legs and see training and now we run into this issue where we’ve had that we’re having Manpower issues and still haven’t had that the new mobilization effort there’s going to be a massive lull of at least a month and this is saying more like sixth that you know it’s you could have had a lot more guys and the West could have facilitated a shitload more training like way more anyway the military to menion military operations in ational Conflict are very distinct from those in a war of maneuver instead of a decisive battle achieved through Rapid maneuver attritional War focused on destroying enemy force and ability to regenerate combat power while preserving One’s Own in this context a successful strategy except that the war will last um at least two years and be broken into two distinct phases so instead of trying to take Buck mood and maneuver out of that grind down forces instead of trying in the Ukrainian defensive heading out from or to get roboty to try and outmaneuver Russia’s defensive lines to get down into Crimea that grinding away the first phase ranges from ini of hostilities to the point where sufficient combat power has been mobilized to allow decisive action so you have the initial hostilities and then let’s mobilize enough combat power soldiers tanks all of this to then then have decisive action at the front it will see little posi positional shifting on the ground focusing on favorable exchange of losses and building up combat power in the rear so building that behind the line before you actually see any movement this is where we see people go oh they’re losing too quickly they’re winning too quick uh losing too slowly or winning too quickly regardless of which way you see maybe we’re in this we’re seeing little positional shift the dominant form of combat is fires so say artillery rather than maneuver complemented by extensive fortifications and camouflage this is something we have seen Russia they have artillery 10 to1 currently and massive massive fortifications and many in Ukraine including officials have criticized the zalinsky government for the lack of fortifications built up and now we’re seeing them at 2 plus years into the war getting built as well as mobilization the second phase can commence after one side has met the following conditions number one newly mobilized forces have completed their training and gained sufficient experience to make them combat effective formations so saying at least 6 months the enemy’s strategic Reserve is exhausted leaving it unable to reinforce the threatened sector and this is where I see mainly of where we’ve seen the failure of the 2023 then offensive was this we didn’t have new the mobilization new mobilized forces in enough Russia was not their Reserve was not exhausted and fires and reconnaissant superity were definitely not achieved they didn’t absolutely not and this is failures for Russia’s initial offensive as well and the enemy’s industrial sector is degraded to the point where it’s unable to replace Battlefield losses in the cas of fighting against a coalition of countries the industrial resources must be exhausted or at least accounted for this is the is going to affect Russia of course industrial was hasn’t affected as much as we may have thought but Ukraine’s industrial sector is the West Industrial sector which can pump out basically forever but the politics of that will the industrial sector allocated towards defending Ukraine the politics will give out first before the money or the equipment going in at least in my opinion now number six here we’re getting through the Mod War mod battlefields Integrated Systems which includes various types of ew so multi-layered bits the artillery has become most dangerous thanks to increased ranges and advanced targeting stretching the depth of the battlefield so the amount of range you have that Gray Zone has extended massively in practice this means it is easier to mass fires than forces you can’t just have guys few K behind the line massing that that it’s much more difficult because you can hit them deep maneuver which requires a massive comb Powers is no longer possible because any Mass force will be destroyed by indirect fires and this is what I’ve said about my doubts about North group is Ukraine saying 35 to 70,000 guys where are they massed if this is legit up in belad C the fire I’m not seeing fires hit them because Ukraine would be bloody hitting them and this is what we’re seeing behind the line both ways and having problems with massive maneuver War you just can’t get the guys that many in an area to then move through so because of this um shallow attacks across along the entire sorry because of this shallow attacks along the forward line of troops are most likely to be successful at an acceptable cost ratio attempts at deep penetration will be exposed to mass Fires at the moment they exit the protection of the defensive bubble so Mass push in you exit that bubble then you’ll start getting hit and it will then stop so you see attacks every we saw Ukraine do that on the offensive the 23 offensive and the 24 Russian offensive we are seeing shallow attacks along the then entire front line implications for combat operations deep fires further than 100 to 150 km so 60 to 100 miles um the average range of tactical Rockets then this is where we’re seeing Ukraine has had a massive um uh Russia has had a massive benefit on Ukraine is Ukraine for a long time wasn’t given these rockets and still is in far less than Russia has targeted enemy ability to generate combat power this includes prod facilities munition dumps repair Depot and energy and transportation infrastructure and this is what I’ve spoken about the unfair of this war with Ukraine not being supplied with those systems or the amount of them and even more so not being allowed with those same systems to be strike in Russia therefore can’t really do this part of it and this seeing Russia with different systems firing in as well as all aspects of nutritional War such strikes will take significant time to have an effect with timelines running into years so you hit an ammo Depo or an ammo dump you don’t see that bang on the front line no ammo can take a lot longer and a lot of time coming in and Strikes against say economic B in pieces say oil refineries in Russia or whatever shortterm lift the cost with supply and demand of oil LIF the cost of oil and actually Russia will then have more cash Reserve but it will take a long time for that to then set in successful attritional War focuses on the preservation of One’s Own combat power this usually translates into a relatively static front which is what we’re seeing interrupted by local attacks to improve position so this just positional movement we’ve seen now for a year using artillery for most the fight fighting fortifications and concealment of all forces including Logistics is a key to minimizing losses fortifications defensive buildup artillery the long time required to construct fortifications prevents significant ground movement H defensive operations buy time to develop low-end combat formations allowing newly mobilized troops to gain combat experience without suffering heavy losses in large scale attacks this is where I think for Russia’s war in Ukraine that Vagner may have actually saved Russia to a degree with coming in they were doing the brunt of the fighting in Buckman while the rest was building then massive defensive works in the south and east and focusing on then this development of low combat formations while the main brunt was taken by a PMC that included um guys that were thrown in jail or criminals or out uh people from outside of Russia coming in as well it was mercenaries not the Russian forces so again new allowing newly mobilized to gain combat experience I think that we underestimate that early stages of attritional war from initiation of hostilities to the point where mobilized resources are available in large numbers are ready for combat operations so then they’re ready um that this period lasts a year to two a year and a half to two years so we have seen that the war range of initiation of hostility to the point where you’re mobilizing enough can take two years so initial um hostilities Russia enters Ukraine Ukraine initial UND defensive blah blah blah to then mobilize the amount of equipment men everything could take 2 years and I think this is the Russian offensive we’re seeing now is what has become of that maybe we will see Ukraine have that but they’re having man power issues and we’re saying it’s going to be two years this is the problem with the West drip feeding in equipment well does that just reset all the time that you haven’t had should have two years ago when this happened go hey we’re fighting Russia they’re going to have a million men we need to take we need to mobilize every single man we can with two bloody legs and give them some form of training maybe not call them put them on the front line yet but some bloody form instead this could take more time now as well during this period major offensive operations should be avoided there we go if large attacks are successful they’ll result in significant casualties often for meaningless territorial gains so piric gains that what you’ve got is not worth what you have lost and I believe there are many examples of this no better example I think than the 23 offensive that due to not having air cover pushing on many axes not having the amount of resources or support ready actually put Ukraine far further back in their goals in this war then if they sat in defense treed down Russia like we’ve seen over the last say now n eight or nine months rather than launching maybe that preemptive non-ready attack and I think more and more people swinging onto saying that also the goal is to force the enemy to expand vital material and strategic reserves on strategically meaningless operations so force them in wear them out and not getting them even if that means you’re stepping back and back and many will say Ukraine’s doing this currently although I don’t know if we can say it’s vital and meaningless operations in the areas it’s going when the second pH Begins the offensive should be launched across a broad front seeking to overwhelm the enemy at multiple points using shallow attacks exactly what we’re seeing talking about that bubble of protective systems which are friendly to you while stretching depleted enemy Reserve until the front lines collapse there is a cascading effect in which crisis in one sector forces Defenders to shift reserves from another sector only to generate a crisis there in return as forces start falling back and leaving PR prepared fortifications morale plummets we’re seeing all of this I believe the moment so we’re seeing shallow movements on multiple fronts or shallow uh attacks on multiple fronts from everywhere down in roboty Crash hika n livka aiva sorry aiva bmot and then up in K livka and this I think is if we see the north group we’ll be cross to Sumi and move guys around exactly what we saw when Ukraine had its offensive last year was they focusing down here and then had then forces actually cross into belgrad and KK as well moving Russian forces around and reinforcements around shifting to a second sector as they say to generate a crisis there and then as forces are falling back prepared fortifications of morale plummets we’ve seen this in adiva with the obvious question so being asked by soldiers if we can’t hold the mega Fortress how can we hold these new trenches Retreat then turns into route only should offensive extend towards objectives deeper in the rear so I think this is what was trying to be hoped down here towards to Mark and these offensive Works can we get this up that if they move push through to here if we can’t hold this massive suran line what else is going to hold further and further down but I think we’ve seen this as well play out in aiva that these fortifications badachi Seka then the second lines as well are under threat of this further back back slide and then what we’re seeing if you listen to Tik toks you see Ukrainian guys talking online about mobilization is well what are we going to do further mobilization look at that front line and it’s affecting morale and Vol and guys volunteering for service attritional strategy Center on defense is counterintuitive of most western Military Officers Western military thought views the offensive as the only means of achieving decisive strategic goal of forcing the enemy to come to the negotiating table on unfavorable terms defeat and bring them there the Strategic patience required to set the conditions for an offensive runs against their combat experience acquired in overseas counter Insurgency operations so offensive getting areas decisive goal bring you to the table rather than a trting down and this is what I think the West had a lot of problems with a lot of experience in counter Insurgency operations and not in classic large War operations where I say that yes you know say from not me but say my training I might have more slick drills on a range than some Ukrainian Soldier maybe better NCO training but I have zero classic war experience like this and I think there is this Western savior of some of this training that we’re going and you like how much one Ukrainian or Russian soldier on this front line here has more experience than the entirety of Australian American brigades in um conventional Warfare drone Warfare experience really matters we need to listen to that both ways the military conduct of war is driven by overall political strategic objectives military realities which is what we need to look at we need to look at military realities and economic limitations combat operations are shallow combat combat operations are shallow and focus on destroying enemy resources not on gaining terrain so destroy the enemy rather than get territory propaganda is used to support mil operations not the other way around so not launch from propaganda but is to support the military with patience and careful planning a war can be one so let’s have a look we actually talk about this first part that conduct of nutritional Wars is vastly different from Wars maneuver they last longer they end up testing a country’s industrial capacity Victory is assured by careful planning industrial based development and development of mobilization infrastructure in times of Peace So now doing that which many countries in UK Australia have talked about mobilization how how that may work in countries while in peace time even more careful management of resources in Wartime they thought that any major power would back down in case of initial military defeat is wishful thinking at best so if you think that initial defeat which you could point out of Russia that then it will just back down this is what we saw Russia got hounded those first months of the war the 100 plus thousand guys that entered into the country but saying that then it’s over from there you can’t can’t and have that that’s wishful thinking as they say Cavalier attitude towards future conflicts will be short and decisive which this has shown us anything it’s not going to be that if the West is serious about a possible great power conflict it needs to take a hard look at the industrial at its industrial capacity mobilization Doctrine and means of w waging a protracted War rather than conducting War Games covering a single month of conflict and hoping that the war ends afterwards as the Iraq War told us hope is not a method so exactly what the this war has shown us industrial capacity of just building dumb equipment is not there currently it is being built up but could take many many years to do and it’s going to be incredibly expensive and is still I believe probably focused too much on technological advancement rather than just sheer equipment and mobilization how do we mobilize and also what would be the success of mobilization for long-term war and at one point yeah we we’re you know mobilization might have worked when the boys coming off Farms to go and fight and we’re very um passionate about the country and this and that I just don’t believe we have that anymore and we’re seeing that with the unpopularity of mobilization and what is being said at the moment Legends 50 something minutes look after yourselves have a fantastic day if you get to this point you’re a bloody legend you’re better than me look after yourselves I’ll see you soon thank you bye-bye

G’day Legends, I hope you’re doing well,
Today we talk about the Russia’s offensive and look at the war map updates.

If you’re new here thanks for coming across, I served in the Australian Infantry from 2014-2021, With a tour to Afghanistan as a crew commander of a Armoured Mobility Vehicle.
Upon my Return I was unexpectedly diagnosed with a Incurable and Inoperable Brain tumour that is slowly killing me. I was also awarded the Queens Order of Australia Medal (OAM) hence the post nominals after my name. Then Being medically separated from the Army I flew to Ukraine in 2022 for 6.5months and now make content full time. I really appreciate you being here Thankyou

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