How strikes on Russian logistics weakened Putin’s defences in Ukraine | Philip Ingram

How strikes on Russian logistics weakened Putin’s defences in Ukraine | Philip Ingram

so what have the ukrainians done they’ve they’ve effectively allowed the front line to freeze and they’re hollowing the Russians out from behind with what I’ve described before in this program as S soe Type tactics General banov the head of the um gu or H as as they’re called as well um the head of their Military Intelligence is carrying out attacks on Russian oil refineries on logistic basis and commanding control he’s been behind the sinking of almost 50% of the Black Sea Fleet you know air defense sites are being attacked Russian um airfields are being attacked um and everything else that’s hollowing them out so when the ukrainians are ready to punch through um they hopefully those defenses are going to be an awful lot weaker because what’s behind them there’s little substance hello and welcome to front line for times radio I’m James Hansen and today we have lots to discuss we’re going to talk about the latest on the war in Ukraine also the threat of a Russian sabotage campaign in Europe and Chinese cyber attacks on the British Ministry of Defense well I’m delighted to be joined by the former Colonel Philip Ingram MBA a former military intelligence officer with more than 26 years of experience in the UK armed forces and a former NATO planner he’s now a military analyst and respected commentator Philip always a pleasure Welcome Back to Front Line good to be back on front line again James uh let’s begin with the situation on the ground in Ukraine are you expecting Russia to launch a fresh ground offensive at some point during May I I think so I think Russia has got a very small window um of opportunity you they have got on the front line from a one-dimensional perspective they’ve got the initiative at the moment they’re moving forward very slowly in certain areas that’s partially because what Ukraine is doing is they’re trading space for time so they’re holding the Russians um up for as long as they can but as soon as they recognize that it’s hopeless they’re going to lose too much equipment and too many people they then withdraw back a little bit more but every time they go back their defenses aren’t quite as good so the Russians have got the the potential to move forward elsewhere and the Russians there’s some indications to suggest that they’re planning a bigger attack in through the Northeast and why are they doing this at the moment they know that the US Aid has been unlocked that $61 billion they know that there’s more AIDS been unlocked from Europe but they also know that it’s slow and coming in because the Western defense industrial bases don’t quite have the capacity to feed in the huge numbers of um pieces of ammunition and the equipment that um is coming so they see this as a small window of opportunity and Putin of course um you today is his inauguration day he wants to try and um show some form of success to the people and say look at how good I am you know I’m I’m dealing with Ukraine but more appropriately he’ll say I’m I’m I’m pushing the west back and how well prepared is Ukraine to resist any potential Russian offensive given the full effect of the USA hasn’t been felt yet Ukraine’s as prepared as it can be with a lack of ammunition and in particular artillery ammunition and Rocket ammunition you know it needs it’s it’s more vulnerable as we’ve seen to attacks from the air um it’s more vulnerable in the front line because it doesn’t have the indirect fire capability with the high Mars rockets and um with artillery ammunition to deal with the groupings of Russian forces as they prepare to come in but it’s still killing between 900 and a th000 Russian soldiers a day you 20 to 40 pieces of Russian equipment today you know 10 to 20 tanks a day are being destroyed that’s significant you Russia is using meat grinder tactics to just punch up against the ukrainians and almost whenever you’re getting into that point where they don’t care about the casualties um no matter how much ammunition you’ve got they’re just going to push through at some stage Ukraine hasn’t quite got the engineering assets to be able to um deliver different layers of defensive positions to fall back on soly whilst they waiting for this um ammunition and the rest of the military material to come forward you mentioned Philip Rush’s meat grinder tactics and obviously you need fresh troops to feed into the meat meat grinder as it were are you expecting to hear more potentially from Putin after his inauguration today about a fresh wave of Russian mobilization yeah I think he he’ll he’ll do everything he can to try and mobilize by stealth so he’ll he’ll find different ways of finding more people to come through but as as it gets worse and it will get worse for him you know he’s going to have to come into more public mobilization and we’re beginning to see the rhetoric behind that um it’s been building up for quite some time you know describing this conflict is not being a conflict um against Ukraine it’s a conflict against the West he’s trying to defeat NATO it’s NATO that’s attacking Russia Russia is under um threat and even with this speech that he gave today at the end of his inauguration he was talking about um you Russia’s Collective response and Collective responsibility to to deal with the threat so he’s he’s building it up in in in people’s minds that this is bigger than um you the issue that he started and he’s blaming everyone else for it want to get your thoughts Philip on something we discussed on yesterday’s episode of Frontline I was joined by George baros from The Institute for the study of war and he was saying that he thinks it is feasible for Ukraine to launch a new counter offensive against Russia in 2024 and he said there would be significant advantages to having one sooner rather than later to launch one potentially in the Autumn of 2024 as opposed to in 2025 do you agree I I I do and I don’t um you know I think Ukraine needs to make sure that they are ready to launch the counter offensive and what what’s made the counter offensive that they launched last year not work they didn’t own the air so you know they couldn’t create areas of air superiority for the ground forces then to fight threw in they didn’t have the engineering assets to deal with the massively complex defenses that Russia had built around the suan lines that that are there um and um they didn’t have the ammunition stocks and the and the numbers of troops ready to properly exploit that so what have the ukrainians done they’ve they’ve effectively allowed the front line to freeze and they’re hollowing the Russians out from behind with what I’ve described before in this program as S soe Type tactics General banov the head of the um gu or H as as they’re called as well um the head of their Military Intelligence is carrying out attacks on Russian oil refineries on logistic basis and command and control he’s been behind the syncing of almost 50% of the Black Sea Fleet you know air defense sites are being attacked Russian um airfields are being attacked um and everything else that’s hollowing them out so when the ukrainians are ready to punch through um they hopefully those defenses are going to be an awful lot weaker because what’s behind them there’s little substance but he needs to get the Western aircraft in the Pilots need to have the ammunition they need to have the experience in the aircraft to be able to provide that local Air air defense um or air superiority bubble around any ground offensive that’s in and then there needs to be the all- armed um fight and we haven’t seen the ukrainians use their armored forces in a mass way yet and that’s how we’d see them used from a a a western perspective we see a brigade or a division level attack we’re seeing the ukrainians using the tanks and ones or twos and we’re seeing the casualties coming through in ones or twos that’s the old Soviet style tactics that the Russians are using um and there’s a lot more to go so they could potentially go this year the Autumn’s not the best time because the ground gets too soft for Western tanks and Western armored vehicles but I think it’s probably more likely and possibly better for them um if they can continue this hollowing out um late spring early summer 2025 you mentioned Philip Vlad Putin and his increasing rhetoric of a war not just with Ukraine but against the west and I wonder if that feeds into the fact that we’ve now got European intelligence agencies warning that Russia is planning and I quote violent acts of sabotage across Europe as part of a more aggressive and concerted effort against the West what form do you think those attacks would take oh you that’s a $6 million question um you Russia has attacked the West it’s attacked the UK you it’s attacked the UK with Weapons of Mass Effect you look at the poisoning of um lenko with polonium 210 um if you look at the poisoning of Sergi scrippal and his daughter Julia in Salsbury with novichok um you know it’s F his first um use of of a nerve agent on the on the streets of the UK or the streets of Europe or the the first one that we’d um discovered at that stage looking back it seems the Russians have been using it beforehand and we’re getting stories coming through of um companies that are linked to Ukraine um their their warehouses and other things mysteriously catching fire in London now um the Russians have got the ability through um their uh organizations associated with their their their Military Intelligence um the gru um to um put Sabers in different places whether those Sabers are going to carry out more novit talk type poisonings or whether mysterious fires are going to come out or whether it’s going to something more serious we see a growth in terrorism that’s a a possibility a greater possibility um and probability is what we’re going to see is Russia trying to um stimulate other groupings that are operating across Europe and in the UK to carry out more violent acts so you potentially um Isis or Al-Qaeda um islamist related Terror organizations suddenly find that they’re getting um training and help and sponsorship and access to weapons and explosives um from a source that they don’t know that Source would likely be Vagner which is linked to the Gru and of course um they’re operating throughout Africa so I’ve got the links into the commanding control that there is in these Terror organizations and we’ll we are already saying what Russia is doing in the information domain we shouldn’t underestimate the power of the information domain to create protests to create um uh disruption and all all the rest of it across across the country we’re seeing the protests um in support of um the Palestinians causing disruptions in many countries across the world and causing real political dilemmas Russia will be behind a lot of that that’s something that people don’t realize they’ll be funding a lot of what’s going on and helping to stimulate it because they can see a a fracture they can see political influence and they’ll put the proverbial knife in and wiggle it to see how far it goes so I think we’re already being attacked it’s interesting you mentioned that example of the the business in London that that its Warehouse was attacked I think it was a Ukrainian owned uh parcel delivery um business uh there was also a Depot in Spain I think that was targeted and it was Ukrainian owned and previously they had helped with the transportation of humanitarian Aid to Lviv at the very outbreak of the war so interesting that that was that that was targeted but also interesting that that reportedly the person um one of the people involved was recruited by Vagner do Vagner still have much of a role these days Vagner have got a huge role um and there were a couple of people that have been arrested for that Arsenal attack have been arrested under um the new um uh secrecy laws that there are in the UK so you that that that points to something really quite interesting Vagner never really went away um they moved when pran’s coup if it was a coup field um they moved more into Africa they they’ve been underpinning um a lot lot of the oligarchs business interests um Collective oligarchs business interests in Africa with um uh mines with um wood with uh you propping up governments and other natural resources that that are around and that’s where the real influence is and Moscow has taken more central control of Vagner um it was set up as you know a private Army to do the dirty work on behalf of Putin in different places across the world before Ukraine happened um they the first bit of dirty work they did was get involved in um the capture of Crimea in 2014 um but you their their power has been us used elsewhere Putin has wrestled them back into more central control um after what prosan had done uh prosan was it attented C it was probably more him protesting the fact that the relationship that he had with the defense minister um wasn’t right and ammunition was being withheld this is a spat between oligarchs um that is being PL out in the military activity that’s going on and it’s criminal fighting criminal um and of course the criminal and chief um is the head oligarch and the head oligarch in um in in Moscow in Russia is Vladimir Putin himself so if we’re going to see an increasing number of these acts of sabotage against Western Nations what should the appropriate response be from the West philli ah well we can send another stiff letter to the United Nations or um get our ambassador to deliver one to the Kremlin in Moscow um it’s very difficult to attribute it um and I I think what we’ll find is that our intelligence Services who are very good indeed um you these sorts of attacks will be you know in the same sort of gu as terrorist attacks and and other bits and pieces potentially um we have since the horrible attacks in 2017 um you our our intelligence services in the UK have stopped almost 40 late stage attacks because they’ve got the finger in the pulse um and we’ll find that our intelligence services are redoubling their effort to look at this as a potential new threat and and deal with it from that perspective so I think we should have confidence that you the majority of it there there will be a handle on it it’s just worrying that if the Russians are doing it and they put a lot of resources behind it um they only need to be successful once or twice whereas our intelligence Services need to be successful all of the time to stop this but it’s it’s a it’s a worrying develop we just have to monitor it closely and just finally on on Russia and the way it may attack the West you mention its use of nerve agents in the past with venko and the scries do you think Putin would use a nerve agent now do you think he’d do that again in the UK or in a western country I don’t think he cares yeah of of course he’d do if if he can assassinate because he he he used novich because it was very clear to those that he was sending a message to that this this had come from Russia and come from the state um when it got identified but it he he chose Solsbury because it gave him plausible deniability you we heard the statements coming out saying no no no it wasn’t it wasn’t us it must have escaped from the British chemical defense establishment at Porton down um and then we saw the leader of the opposition stand up in Parliament um and turn around and and ask how we could prove that that wasn’t the case you know Putin had created that um masking that masarova which is which is their Doctrine um and therefore by the time he’s done that you the political impetus the impetus across the media and all the rest of it had had dissipated the uh impact of going no we’ve got you we’ve got your Banger rights we’re going to deal with you now um because it caused all of this discussion that went on for weeks and weeks and weeks um that’s what he’ll do again it’s it’s within his tactics he will very carefully do things below the threshold is how we describe it so whether it’s the use of novich whether it’s the use of radiological substances whether it’s some other form of poison whether it’s arson whether it’s cyber attacks or anything else um uh we will see that what we’re definitely seeing this year is an increase in the information domain and misinformation or or more appropriately disinformation deliberately targeted to cause disruption um will be very very big because of the number of Elections that we have across not just Europe but across the globe talking of cyber attacks that brings us on to one of the big stories of today which is this suspected Chinese cyber attack against the British military we believe that they’ve been able to access the names and Bank details and in some cases potentially even home addresses of British soldiers how significant a breach of of UK cyber security is this Philip um it’s a very serious breach um it’s what is referred to as a supply chain breach so it wasn’t a breach of ministry defense computers they subcontract um the payroll um process out to a third party um and I understand it’s that payroll process that has that has been compromised now if the only bit that’s been compromised is you know an amount of money being transferred to a bank account and people’s personally identifiable data um around that that’s serious enough um but it’s not going to have a massive implication on um the operational capability of the military or the security aspects around um uh different service Personnel or veterans if it’s more detail however where um the pay statements are compromised as well then that would give um hostile intelligence Services access to know who’s getting Special Forces pay who’s getting Pilots pay who’s getting special duties pay who are bomb disposal trained who are um you because each different trade has got a different pay group in there that would be Mana from heaven and allow um you the Chinese intelligence services to bring in more targeted messaging and more targeted attacks against individuals who are in um uh the these areas of responsibility um and that would be worrying even more worrying would be if this is not the Chinese it’s not a nation state attack because Nations will try and gather intelligence in other nations Chinese are doing it us seems as if been successful here we do it to them as well but if this was a criminal gang and and that data was going to be published on the the dark web that would be more serious for um individuals and individual security we’ve also heard a lot about China trying to recruit spies in the West could they potentially use this information to Blackmail people into becoming spies I don’t think they use it to Blackmail people to come into spies but what it does is it gives them the ability to Target people better so they’ll be able to identify senior officers because if their rank is on there so so they can do that they’ll be able to identify people in um specialist areas So Special Forces special duties personnel and look at that so it will be used in a way to try and enhance their um intelligence gathering techniques and you know I know this personally you know I had an article Fiona Hamilton from the times did an article on May in 20121 on how the Chinese had tried to um recruit me through social media through Linkedin um and that that was identified as as a formal approach by Chinese intelligence and it would have led to me being compromised the Chinese hadn’t quite realized that I’d run counterintelligence operations across Northwest Europe for many years so you’ve got suspicious very quickly indeed and you put a few traps in place to see if this was an approach by Chinese intelligence and they fell straight into the traps so that you that that made it certain in my mind and I got the details to to the appropriate authorities just expand on that briefly Phillip um for those who aren’t aware what happened to you how did they approach you yeah it was a legitimate business approach on LinkedIn um by someone asking me to go and present a paper at a conference in China now I present papers at conferences all the time across the world um and it was Within the area that that that I work in um but it’s uh whenever I started to get into the details of how they were going to pay me what um you where I could get properly briefed and what they wanted um they were vague on that um when it came to payment it was going to be in cash and that was the first alarm Bell that rang so you know I I um got the individual I was talking to on um the messaging um app on on LinkedIn um I I got him to switch to a cure Communications means um that I know that the average Chinese person has not got access to um and he switched to that very quickly indeed and that was the second big alarm Bell going okay if you can do that you have got the authority of the state behind you um and I then started to do some more inquiries and and play with them a little bit and he then said oh it would be even better if um you could get us um information that was not necessarily in the public domain and I you know I openly asked him said do you mean classified material he said oh if if if if you think that and and he was he was giving me a list of the requirements I played with him until I thought this I can’t get anything more out of there I am 100% certain I know who I’m dealing with um and got it reported in and you the government agencies um it was then the C cpni it’s now the npsa the national protective security Authority have produced a fantastic booklet called think before you link and it’s on their website it’s there for anyone to download um and my story is merged in with a bit of poetic license with some other stories that there are in there but it’s it’s a it’s a very serious and ongoing threat well thank you so much for sharing that Philip that’s fascinating um just to go back to this particular Chinese Cyber attack could they share the information with with anyone I mean there is a fear for example that this information could end up in Russian hands and how might that be used well we’re seeing increasing Corporation between Russia Iran China and North Korea there there seems to be an alliance coming together so um yes they could Supply it to the Russians and the Russians would exploit it in a in a a different way as well you know the if if it’s got that pacp details and Special Forces um you know the Russians would then look and see if there are any special forces that um could be potentially advising people inside Ukraine you we almost certainly would would have some in the embassy providing support in there and identify those as individuals that could put them at a particular threat so um you they identify people are working overseas in different embassies because of their Rank and their overseas alliances and everything else so if that level of detail is is compromised that that is something that again would easily be exploited by the Russians the Iranians North Koreans and other hostile intelligence services so you the immediate read of the breach is it’s serious but the implications aren’t massive however it could be depending on the level of detail of of what they’ve got access to it it could be an awful lot more serious than um we’ve heard so far the timing of this story coming to light is interesting because XI jingping has been in the west he’s been in France and a state visit with Emanuel macron and he’s warned against a new Cold War developing between the west and China how should the West approach Beijing at the moment well now that’s a really difficult one you know G Jinping doesn’t want a cold war because of the economic implications the thing that drives China in everything is economics economics and economics um you they want to gain economic Advantage which is why they get accused of stealing intellectual property you the designs of advanced systems so that they don’t have to pay billions of dollars to design it they just take someone else’s design and build it and build it quicker and cheaper than the company that’s that’s previously designed it um they do want an economic War where where sanctions are going to start being put on China and Chinese companies because you that that will affect them enormously and affect what ji jingping is trying to do so he will play The Diplomatic card as he’s doing as much as he possibly can to try and stop that from happening that that’s his motivation what can we do about it it’s very difficult you we’re dealing with another member of the security Council of the United Nations we’re dealing with the second largest economy in the globe and one that’s vying to be the largest economy in the globe um they have had many years developing influence across uh our different countries I think the best thing that we we can do at the moment is increase our awareness of what they’re doing why they’re doing it and make sure we have uh closed down the the easy access that there is now for their organizations to get the stuff that we have worked hard for we have paid for and everything else um and try and bring um our relationship with China onto um a more even and farer ke they’ve got the advantage at the moment because they penetrated so many of our systems and we’ve let them do it Philip Ingram always a pleasure thank you so much for joining us today on Frontline thank you very much indeed thank you for watching Frontline for times radio for more click subscribe on our YouTube channel you can listen to times radio and you can read more about the war in Ukraine and Global Security with your times digital subscription

“When the Ukrainians are ready to punch through, hopefully those defences are going to be an awful lot weaker…they can continue this hollowing out, until late spring, early summer 2025.”

Despite grinding Russian gains Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics and behind the lines target could leave Russian defences significantly weakened, former intelligence officer Philip Ingram tells Frontline on #timesradio

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