Putin could lose gains in Donbas as Ukraine receives new weapons | William Courtney

Putin could lose gains in Donbas as Ukraine receives new weapons | William Courtney

gains have not had strategic effect as you pointed out they’re not really significant gains so it’s not something to worry very much about and as Ukraine gets new weapons and and ammunition uh some of that could reverse itself that’s mostly taken place in the dbas area which is the area that Russia has occupied part of that area since 2014 so it’s an area where they have a stronger um infrastructure if you will to conduct attacks uh but in other areas we haven’t really seen much gain and what we have seen on the Ukrainian side is Ukraine continues to sink Russian warships in the Black Sea to the point that many or most of them now have been moved to Eastern parts of the Black Sea to avoid being destroyed by Ukrainian missiles President Vladimir zalinski of Ukraine says Russia launched a massive early morning Miss missile and drone attack on energy facilities across his country more than 50 missiles and 20 drones were used in the attack the president wrote on Twitter it marks the latest in a string of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid which Moscow insists is a legitimate military Target it comes as the EU has reached a deal to seize profits from Russia’s frozen assets to help fund weapons and aid for Ukraine within months well well William Courtney is a former Special Assistant to the US president for Russia Ukraine and Eurasia he’s also a former US ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia and now at the Rand Think Tank um good evening to you William hello Carol thanks so much for joining us um this really just the latest attack on energy installations in Ukraine um but it is clearly Russia flexing its muscles its military muscles and attempting to um send a message to Ukraine about the extent uh of its range uh yes and recently Russia has stepped up those attacks on energy generating and other energy infrastructure in Ukraine because Ukraine will shortly be receiving more air defense uh capability more air defense ammunition and Rockets and so the Russians appear to be trying to destroy as much of that energy infrastructure as possible before uh the anti-air capability uh knocks out Russian drones and Russian missiles and in the past uh Ukraine has actually been quite Adept at doing that um what’s your assessment of where the war has reached because there have been uh consistent reports in recent weeks about the the ground that Russian forces have been gaining not not huge dramatic gains but that they are pushing Ukraine’s forces back uh yes and that’s happened again because of the shortage of ammunition uh and also shortage of men to some extent but mainly ammunition on Ukraine side but those gains have not had strategic effect as you pointed out there not really significant gains so it’s not something to worry very much about and as Ukraine gets new weapons and and ammunition uh some of that could reverse itself that’s mostly taking place in the dbas area which is the area that Russia has occupied part of that area since 2014 so it’s an area where they have a stronger um infrastructure if you will to conduct attacks uh but in other areas we haven’t really seen much gain and what we have seen on the Ukrainian side is Ukraine continues to SN Russian warships in the Black Sea to the point that many or most of them now have been moved to Eastern parts of the Black Sea to avoid being destroyed by Ukrainian missiles we saw the um approval at long last of that uh60 billion dollar uh worth of uh military aid for Ukraine finally approved is it just a question of the fact that these supplies are taking time to reach Ukraine and do you think that they will perhaps make um quite a significant difference when they start to arrive uh they will make a difference and they’re already starting to arrive uh the US Department of Defense uh actually uh prepared uh pallets and uh shipments to go into Ukraine uh quickly but they have to be distributed uh to the Troops so that’s taking place uh now uh what has been encouraging about the Congressional vote on this is that when the aid bill came up for a vote in the house the house passed it 3 to1 margin and then the Senate it was 4 to1 margin so this is a pretty strong affirmation that the United States is in this uh for a while a good while and is supporting Ukraine uh the talk somewhere in the west that there is Ukraine fatigue in the west uh we don’t see any Ukraine fatigue here and Europe Europe is actually increasing stepping up its support including Great Britain uh for Ukraine so we don’t see evidence of Ukraine fatigue in Europe either it’s interesting you say that because we’ve also had this agreement today within the EU um on a deal to seize the profits from Russia’s frozen assets to help fund weapons and aid for Ukraine um and this appears to be um smoothing over various disputes do you think that that could be significant uh it will be helpful uh the amount is not as large as you know the $50 billion that the European Union has provided Ukraine or or pledged to provide wor of 60 billion from the US uh it will be helpful uh but the key is uh going further and seizing all of the assets and I think they’re 260 bilon or so uh in Europe that uh that can be seized uh the European Central Bank and some European Bankers have been concerned that if those assets are seized that in the future uh people around the world be will be less likely to hold Euros or use Euros as a reserve currency uh or deposit money in European Banks uh so there are some issues that are really not related to the Ukraine situation my guess is that over time those are going to be worked out the momentum is growing to use those resources to help Ukraine including to help Ukraine’s reconstruction after a major combat operations end we’ve there’s a report in um the London uh Daily Telegraph tonight that says Lord Cameron the British foreign secretary is going to call on Europe to be tougher and more assertive in the face of Russian and Chinese aggression um he’s going to be speaking at the national cyber security Center in London um saying that Britain and its allies need to adopt a harder Edge for a tougher World um and calling on Europe to spend more on defense saying that um the spending Target for NATO members should rise from 2% of GDP to 2.5% um which is in line with what the British government has committed do do you think that we do still need to see a bigger commitment to Nato from other EU Nations uh yes a larger commitment will make sense because the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a direct threat to European security at the beginning of the war there was not a strong consensus in Europe on that point but there is a very strong consensus now uh so for example Lord Cameron has pointed out that British arms provided to Ukraine can be used to strike Targets in Russia the US has not allowed that to happen for its arms but for Ukraine to be effective on the battlefield it needs to be able to strike staging areas Logistics points command and control points across the border in Russia uh So Great Britain is really leading quite well and uh We’ve also um seen one other um development on all of this um it’s been revealed that um there’s been the expulsion um of a kernel in the Russian military thrown out of um um the UK I I mean is this just part of the um the ongoing hostility between the two countries do you think um it’s hard to speculate on a specific issue I mean over the years uh hundreds uh of Russian Espionage people carrying out Espionage under diplomatic cover have been thrown out at various times uh so it’s hard to speculate about a specific case uh but the Russians are giving strong emphasis uh to using Espionage or secret agents uh if you will to carry out disinformation subd fuge activities uh in Europe and you were saying earlier that there’s no sign of uh Ukraine fatigue um but of course uh you’re in an election year in the United States uh Donald Trump has been talking about solving the Ukraine war on day one um do you think that if Donald Trump does return to the White House there will be a significant shift in policy that a trump Administration would be less willing to provide the kind of support that the Biden Administration has been doing uh to president selinski uh that’s possible uh but in our system you know Congress plays a key role Congress originates Appropriations those are originated in the house and then passed through the Senate uh so with a 3 to1 vote in the house 4 to one in the Senate uh that suggest there pretty strong support uh in Congress uh for that so I don’t expect any major change if president Trump if Donald Trump is elected president again uh but there could well be some changes William Courtney uh former Special Assistant to the US president uh for Russia Ukraine and EUR Asia are really good to speak to you tonight thank you very much for joining us you’re great welcome Carol

“Russian gains have not had strategic effect. They’re not really significant gains so its not something to worry about.”

Ukraine could “reverse” Russian gains in the Donbas area with new weapons, as they continue to to be successful in the Black Sea , says former special assistant to the president for Russia William Courtney.

📻 Listen to Times Radio – https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio

📍 Subscribe to our channel – http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTjDhFuGXlhx9Us0gq0VK2w?sub_confirmation=1

🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/radio-3for3/

📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-to-listen-to-times-radio/app