Russia-Ukraine war | Russia intensifies attacks on Kharkiv as it moves troops over Northern Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine war | Russia intensifies attacks on Kharkiv as it moves troops over Northern Ukraine

hello and welcome to this special edition of broadcast and VI on my name is Mohammad s now Russian forces are advancing taking the front lines deeper into the Ukrainian territory the Ukrainian soldiers this moment are scrambling in order to build fortified def defense lines and to try and fend off the Russian attacks according to reports that have coming Russia wants to make use of this interval from now till the US military aid reaches the front lines to gain as much Advantage as it can on the battlefield so tell us us to which way this war in Ukraine is going you’re joined by Professor David Don who’s a professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham and is’s joining us live on this broadcast now Professor Don this this is what the general chter has been that because the Western military aid to Ukraine over the course of the last 6 months had been very Patchy the Russians have managed to clearly push the ukrainians onto the back foot and now even though the Western military Alliance that is that is the United States has passed the military aid bill for Ukraine there is still a bit of time that would take for these Western American weapons to reach the Ukrainian Battlefield and the Russians want to take full advantage of it how much Advantage do you think the Russians could press forth in this case well the interesting thing is that the Russian gains despite the lack of Western support have been incredibly modest uh what they have not done is take the major towns that they have been pushing for uh Puttin asked off his arm for forces that they take more of the dones or he announc it on the anniversary military parade on May 9th but they hadn’t got that uh to claim because they haven’t done that uh the Russians have been throwing uh huge amounts of Manpower and what I refer to as me attacks whereby they actually threw human waves forward uh the Russians have lost at least 50,000 dead and 300 casualties 300,000 casualties overall but actually the gains they have made been relatively modest the ukrainians have have despite the lack of of uh um Western support despite the fact that the Russians have mobilized 470,000 troops into the field uh the this uh war is showing to itself to be remarkably static uh and and indeed the conflict is taking place elsewhere with Ukraine striking deep 700 miles into Russia to destroy oil and gas refining uh plants and actually denying Russia the ability to operate in the Black Sea by sinking a third of its Naval units in the Black Sea so the war has taking place on many fronts and the central front is as I say rather static right it’s interesting that you pointed out you know as to how this war is unfolding in many fronts and on the Black Sea front the ukrainians even though they do not have a naval Force to speak off and manag to sync almost about a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet but on the ground though the Russians have made slow but steady progress and the Ukrainian commanders are now saying that it is literally impossible for them to hold the positions that they hold at this moment and therefore in the course of the next few weeks if the American military weapons do not reach them quickly enough they say that they would have to fall back what’s your assessment on that front yes that again most assessments most military assessments uh say that and in fact the um American White House spokesman Jake Sullivan said that the Ukrainian counter offensive will not start until 2025 so there will be a bit of fluidity uh on the battlefield uh but what there isn’t is a major breakthrough this war has been going on now for years and the the uh the characteristics of that war is a huge Russian gains initially massive uh push pushed back by the ukrainians and then a largely static Battlefield uh with a a bit of movement back and forth there may well be the expectation that the Russians will gain some ground uh in the summer months uh but that’s not regarded as either strategically significant or actually a permanent loss of that territory uh because once the Western support comes in once uh UK Ukraine finishes its second round of mobilization the the expectation is that the Russians will be uh pushed back further but this is like to happen over several years and therefore we shouldn’t be over fixated about the next few weeks you know as you are saying that this could drag on for the next several years but this is the kind of battle that Russians would want to fight this is a war of attrition where Russia is hoping because the Western support for Ukraine has been on and off um you know at the best of times that Russia is hoping that as the months go by the Western support for Ukraine will Wain again and then Russia will get its Advantage do you think that actually plays into the Russian hands well the big question here is is Mr Trump and what what he would do if he was uh elected uh in November but what’s interesting about the U Aid package passed through the US Congress is that it went through largely with Trump’s blessing uh and what that indicates is that support for Ukraine and the country is such that many a huge majority of members of Congress actually in the end supported that Aid package and Trump who has no has no principles actually recognized that that actually it was popular to support the war in Ukraine and therefore the the Western support for Ukraine in Europe and America is now established and and and this this uh blip in support is likely to to uh be an exception rather than the rules so the Strategic aspects of this are that that supportting Europe and America financial support and Military Support and Superior economic support and Superior military technology will mean ultimately that Russia will not Prevail I mean Russia has many advantages including the fact that that India and China by its oil and break sanctions and therefore its economy is keeping going in a way in which that wasn’t expected before the war But ultimately if I interject there you know the fact that the Europeans have been purchasing oil and they’ve only now started talking about sanctioning LNG that is purchased by the Europeans from Russia it’s the European economy that has been financing the Russian war machine would you not agree to that no I purchasing the Russian hydrocarbons now Europeans been talking lot to have China and India have been purchasing oil and gas from the Russians but the fact is Europeans have been doing way more purchase of the the Russian gas and um Russian oil than India and China have we can dispute that that the uh most of of oil exports to Europe and gas exports to Europe have stopped there’s one or two countries that are are still riing on Russian hydrocarbons but most analysts and and uh would say that the biggest issue is China and India particular India refining petrol and selling that on as ref oil and selling that on as diesel that are actually are effectively sustaining the ability of Russia to to wage uh thisg Direction it may not be a a thing that the Indians want to hear but that’s what most analysts are arguing but you know that’s that’s of course a point of debate the Indians would have course turn around and say the Europeans are still purchasing even though the Europeans are the ones who are imposing sanctions on Russia not to purchase L and gas the fact is Europe still continues to make purchases from the Russians of LNG and this this is something that’s been very on tin SC but let let me on a tiny scale you know Professor D let’s in fact come back to what is happening on the battlefield in Ukraine now when you say that Donald Trump did agree to send this TR of military aid to the ukrainians the fact is a lot of the Ukrainian Defenders would be looking at the way Donald Trump has behaved in the past let’s say assuming that there’s a change of G of the White House later this year in the month of November how confident do you think the ukrainians would be to rely on Donald Trump as a reliable partner in taking on and fighting off the Russians well there’s two things here I mean yeah it would require Donald Trump to win and that’s uh a by no means a certainty his trials and him being portrayed as a sleazy individual through the process in New York will undoubtedly affect his popularity in America but if he were to win in November and take office in January uh there are many people who have concerns about this but as I say the in interesting thing with regard to Trump is that he actually has switched position on most issues including abortion and override of other things when Hees what popular and what is clear from this time is that actually support for Ukraine is popular so despite the concerns that many have it may well be that if Trump were to take office in January actually he would follow uh the uh the popularity of support for Ukraine rather than necessarily uh being someone who was opposed to that but we these are many many many speculations uh with six or or nine months uh to wait in the meantime the Europeans have pledged long-term commitments the both the EU and the UK have said that they will give billions of dollars and pounds and and Euros uh to Ukraine for however long the war takes and that that commitment is what Ukraine wants to hear all right now the French President Emanuel macron has been repeatedly saying that French soldiers may have to fight in the Ukrainian Battlefield if that would happen do you think this is a contest that would directly become a contest between Russia and the NATO military allines that’s a real possibility uh what macron has done is is actually uh try and raise an area of uh ambiguity with regard to what uh the European States should do and there is a debate whether European States uh could send their armed forces in a way not necessary to to fill Frontline positions but to give supporting role to Ukraine in international law Ukraine is entitled to actually at ask for support for from its its allies uh and from from uh to act in Collective self-defense and call for Collective self-defense so international law and international politics would make this feasible but but macron’s suggestion is not one that’s widely supported in Europe or within NATO so it’s unlikely to happen in the short term but he’s raising it as a a possibility more than actually a plan now Professor Dan my final question to you is is twofold firstly the Russians have said that it has become necessary for them to find this war on Ukraine because the West has not recognized the security concerns of Russia because they’ve been trying to push the NATO military alliances Frontier as Eastward as possible that the reason why the Russians say they are in Ukraine in the first place secondly considering what’s been happening in the last Fortnight where Russia has carried out Military drills of tactical nuclear weapons that saysa may come into picture if this war continues to drag on have concerned you think the military strategist in the west would be of this war in fact resulting in the use of tactical nuclear weapons well first of all the question of NATO expansion uh the reason why many of Russia’s neighbors sought as sovereign states to join NATO was their security concerns about the behavior of Russia and in annexing part of Georgia in 2008 and illegally occupying the Crimea in 2014 and of course the latest two countries to join NATO Sweden and Finland did so as a direct result of the fulls scale Invasion uh of uh Ukraine in 20 21 so what we see there is is uh not a case of the West expanding NATO to threaten Russia but actually sovereign states being concerned for their security and seeking an alliance from like-minded Democratic states next to them so the idea that that that Russia is the victim in this is is a a top Turvy view of the situation the reason why they have sought that that security is because of the aggressive uh territorial expansionist imperialist aims of Russia with regard to the nuclear question uh this is same old same old from Russia we’ve heard this from the very start of this illegal Invasion that that actually if you respond to this in any way I I reserve the right to use nuclear weapons what’s interesting is that uh despite initial concerns about supplying anything to Ukraine as Russia has escalated in a whole variety of ways in its aggression against Ukraine the West has been emboldened to Reid Ukraine in increasingly increasing WS with different levels of of technology and other forms of military and economic aid that hasn’t triggered Russian use of nuclear weapons and indeed the the Chinese have made it clear to the Russians that to do so would mean that they would withdraw any support for them because that would be to cross a bridge to too far so that the threats I think from Russia are ones that you seen in that wider context and as saber rattling rather than anything else all right we’ll have to leave you that we’re completely out of time thank you very much indeed Professor Don for joining us and getting us that perspective then always a pleasure for all the latest news download the Von app And subscribe to our YouTube channel

Russian forces are advancing, taking the frontlines deeper into the Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian soldiers are scrambling in order to build fortified defence lines and to fend-off Russian attacks.

Now according to reports, Russia wants to make use of the interval from now till the US military aid reaches the frontlines to gain as much advantage as it can.

Mohammed Saleh speaks to Prof. David Dunn, Professor of International Politics, the University of Birmingham.

#russiaukrainewar #russia #kharkiv

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