Putin’s circle’s ‘incompetence’ will prevent all out war | Christopher Steele.

Putin’s circle’s ‘incompetence’ will prevent all out war | Christopher Steele.

one of the problems in Russia is that uh the leadership lives in an increasingly small isolated bubble it’s very clear throughout this war in Ukraine and the precessing period um that accurate information and policy advice was not passed up to the leadership and that’s a big problem in an autocratic system and it means that it becomes somewhat unpredictable as to which path the country takes and I think one of the things that’s really being uh Saving Grace if you like is the fact that that Russia’s intent has never really been matched by its capabilities either economic or or military or political and um that’s basically what saved us I mean China in a way is the is the opposite has huge capabilities but not as malign and intent um so I I think that’s how we have to look at Russia and we have to realize that it’s being run by a very small cleck of people who are selected as a result of their loyalty to Putin rather than their competence what do you make of the recent more hawkish stance taken by the French President Emanuel maon who warns of the prospect of foreign ground troops being deployed to the war in Ukraine and the British foreign secretary’s assertion that Ukraine has a right or had the right to use weapons provided by Britain on targets inside Russia I think it’s a development in relation to what’s happening on the ground I think the for the first time in the last couple couple of months certainly we’ve seen a prospect not a likelihood of the Ukrainian defense and the front line collapsing um and what the actual ramifications of that would be which would be I think several million refugees coming into into Europe which would be horrendously difficult to finance and to manage including politically um so I I think there’s a realization perhaps with macron now that um actually one of Putin’s key aims and this is something I believe for for as you know for a long time is to undermine and and sort of destroy the EU itself and by working through the likes of Victor Orban in Hungary and others um that is a real perceived threat now and of course macron is looking strategically at the EU and France’s influence and power within that body and seeing it being undermined what do you make of the the fear of escalation that has been uh kind of warned against by so many leaders in this situation I mean you’re presumably talking about nuclear um exchanges or use of nuclear weapons or even an attack on this aarian nuclear power station in that regard and I think the issue there will be whether the Chinese in fact are restraining the Russians on all that and I think they are that’s certainly what our understanding is uh and that’s somewhat reassuring but um you know the one of the problems in Russia is that uh the leadership lives in an increasingly small isolated bubble it’s very clear throughout this war in Ukraine and the predecessor period um that accurate information and policy advice was not passed up to the leadership and that’s a big problem in an autocratic system and it means that it becomes somewhat unpredictable as to which path the country takes and I think one of the things that’s really been uh Saving Grace if you like is the fact that that Russia’s intent has never really been matched by its capabilities either economic or or military or political and um that’s basically what saved us I mean China in a way is the is the opposite has huge capabilities but not as malign and intent um so I I think that’s how we have to look at Russia and we have to realize that it’s being run by a very small cleck of people who are selected as a result of their loyalty to Putin rather than their competence and that the transmission of information upwards and downwards is very difficult and that’s a problem you recently said that the global geopolitical situation is more worrying to you right now than it has been in the whole of your 40-year career what worries you the most what worries me the most I think well several things one I don’t think uh democracies uh our Western democracies have really woken up to the fact that they are we are living in a new era ER we are no longer living in the the postcommunist era where um we didn’t have to spend a lot of money on security and defense and other things um and there’s a sort of sense that uh there are still quite significant divisions in Britain what worries me is is our relationship with with Europe and particularly the European Union which is key to defending ourselves from incursions and instability directed at us by hostile States like Russia and China so I think we are not particularly well LED I think that the um States concerned have got their tails up uh they’re seeing an opportunity to fill a vacuum not least in the global South as it’s called where they are able to exert influence and uh point out things like so-called Western hypocrisy over Gaza and what have you so I I think that we are for the first time certainly in my career on the back foot in the west and I think that’s very concerning and if you were at MI6 now on the Russia desk what would be your priority I think it would really be to understand the Dynamics inside Russia and the leadership but also to look at what’s actually happening in Russia I mean there’s a lot of things happening in Russia which are which are kept quiet which are not publicized there was a there was a figure issued um I think came out the other week which showed that the murder rate in Russia was up 900% in the last year I mean clearly the the war is having a massive effect on the social fabric of Russia presumably thousands of troops coming back from the front lines in Ukraine PTSD and everything else all of which is being suppressed uh plus all the prisoners that have been let out of prison of course virtually the whole young male Russian prison population has been LED out to fight in Ukraine and then allowed to return to civilian life after six months I mean those are the sort of social experiments that I wouldn’t like to be experiencing in our own country and I really think that Russia is on a very steep slide both culturally and socially and everything else um as we look at it today I think that strategically in long term Putin’s current management of Russia is catastrophic for the country and what I mean he’s just started his fifth term as president what kind of future do you foresee for him I don’t know about him there lots of rumors and information about his health and so on there’s there’s a good degree of instability in the leadership just underneath him where people jockeying for the succession uh one of the Russian key Russian leaders U Eagle set and his son died a couple of months ago in Moscow in very mysterious circumstances plus you have a lot of the instability around the economy with you know people falling out of Windows and uh people having heart attacks in their 50s and all the rest of it so there’s a good deal of instability just under the top leadership cir circuit and I think the trend of Russia is to become a vassel state of China effectively both economically and politically which is deeply unpopular amongst the Russian people for whatever reason and Military dependency on the likes of North Korea and Iran I mean this is not where your average Russian even not particularly well educated Russian wants the country to be most Russians still want the country to be a European power and to have significant relationships with Europe both economic and social cultural you were based in Moscow at one of say more optimistic times for relations between Russia and the West what hope can you offer for the future now not much in the short term I’m afraid I mean I think that if you look at Russian history often where there’s been a war that Russian’s been Russia’s been involved in and it’s either lost or is perceived to have lost then you get reform and regime change and I think that has to be the hope that eventually this war there’s a trigger point amongst the Russian people and the regime changes as it did in after 1905 and it did in the 1850s after defeating the Crimean War um that’s the sort of Circle of Russian history if you like it’s not a linear history like ours it’s much more of a circular history so I think the hope is that Russia kind of burns itself out on the battle gr ground in Ukraine and that we see some kind of regime change leading to reform but I’m certainly not saying that’s inevitable or indeed probable but it is possible Chris deal it’s been good talking to you thank you very much for your time time thank you you’ve been watching Frontline for times radio with Me Kate chabo if you’d like to support us you can subscribe now or listen to times radio or go to the times.co.uk my thanks to our producer Louis Sykes and to you for watching bye for now

“Russia’s intent has never been matched by it’s capabilities. And that’s basically what’s saved us.”

Putin’s close circle’s “incompetence” is the “saving grace” that could prevent his war with Ukraine spilling over, says former MI6 officer Christopher Steele.

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