Vladimir Putin ‘under real pressure’ as Ukraine war hits new edge | LBC analysis

Vladimir Putin ‘under real pressure’ as Ukraine war hits new edge | LBC analysis

good evening everybody but not perhaps a very good evening I’m convinced that the next few years will be some of the most dangerous yet the most transformational that our country has ever known the Prime Minister earlier today in a speech which was both election campaigning and also one of the starkest warnings he’s given so far about the dangerous world around us I’m going to come on to the dangers in just a moment but what does preparing ourselves for them actually mean it means more defense spending that is clear both main parties are committed to raising the proportion of our wealth going on the military conservatives would cut 70,000 civil service jobs and find other savings which haven’t been spelled out so far labor still has to explain where that money would come from in a sense for the rest of us for voters I suppose what we’re being told is that the threat from Russia let’s put that plainly is now dangerous enough for us to have to swallow less public spending on things we want such as health pensions education or accept more taxation I assume that is what the political leaders mean but they aren’t quite leveling with us are they they give us the first part of the argument it’s a dangerous world and we have to get ready for it and fast but they don’t get on to the second bit and the consequences for you and you and you are whatever we’ll talk to a government Minister later about that but as it happens the Prime Minister was speaking on a day when his argument was made forcefully not by words in London but by fighting on the ground in Ukraine Russian troops have so far captured about 10 Villages around HF the country’s second largest city in their new offensive from the Russian point of view the attack is well timed because Ukraine hasn’t yet received its essential resupplies of missiles and shells voted by the American Congress last month so this is a moment of Maximum Danger let’s take talk more about that I’m joined in the studio by Bill Browder the American financier of Russian Heritage who’s colleague Sergey magnitz died in prison and who has become a Relentless critic of Vladimir Putin’s regime since then bill it’s very good to have you here there’s been a lot of turmoil in Moscow over the past few hours with the removal of shyu the head of defense and his replacement by a guy who is widely described as a kind of gray accountant very close to Putin so first of all what do you think is going on well if you remember there was this big um March towards Moscow in the in the summer of last year uh of Genny progan the head of the Wagner group was marched towards Moscow and the reason he was marching towards Moscow is that he had this huge dislike of the incompetent and crooked shyu now as much of a monster as yvi progan the head of Wagner group was he had a point which is he wasn’t wrong about that he he wasn’t wrong about that shyu is a he’s he and all of his people are stealing vast amounts of money from the defense Ministry and they were throwing huge resources into battle people are being killed left right and Center from the Russian side equipment was getting destroyed all over the place they’ve lost 95% of their tanks and I think that Putin finally said enough is enough he’s he’s now been sort of fully um elected if you want I don’t want to even use the word elected because it’s not a fair word to use what what what they did cemented himself further into Power put it that and so he he he now feels like and and what he didn’t want to do is right after pran said get rid of this guy he didn’t want to like get rid of him because it would have made Putin look weak so Putin waited uh the requisite amount of time killed Goan and then gets rid of this horrible defense minister and I’ve read that the new man coming in Andre bellof who’s a kind of accountant a numbers guy is a signal that Putin intends a very very long conflict with the West because he’s the chap who has reshaped a lot of Russian industry into a war economy he’s the person behind the Russian manufacturer of a new generation of drones and high technology uh material being used against Ukraine in other words this is a long-term play by Putin it’s always been a long-term play by Putin Putin well Putin hoped he was going to win this war in 3 days that was his intention of course that didn’t happen and then once the war kept on going he understood that that it was going to be a long-term War I think there’s a lot of people out there that are reading into the tea leaves projecting and and so on and so forth I think that Putin replaced shyu with just some other guy a nameless faceless bureaucrat um who’s one uh he’s got two two characteristics um one is that he’s loyal to Putin and to he’s totally unremarkable he’s like a totally unmemorable person that no ever heard’s point of view very good characteristics I’m sure what is your take on what’s going on in the front line now because it looks to many people as if uh the ukrainians were rather taken by surprise around khif and the Russians have done something that’s been quite successful and they might be quite close to taking Ukraine’s Second City well um I don’t think this was a surprise I think that everybody understood that when the US withheld $61 billion of military aid to Ukraine day after day after day month after month it gave Putin the green light you know if if if you if Ukraine is running out of ammunition and it became obvious um not just to the Russians to us to everybody um uh Putin said well why not take advantage of this and so he assembled 50,000 troops um at the front in in kke and and the ukrainians at the moment don’t have the you know the 61 billion hasn’t yet been spent to give them all the stuff they need so it’s going to take quite a while for actual shells and missiles to arrive in Ukrainian hands it it will but I would I would also say don’t underestimate the ukrainians the ukrainians um have have dealt with this before remember um the Russians had 10 times the number of Tanks as they as they bellowed into Ukraine in February 2022 and everyone thought it was going to be taken very quickly the ukrainians are now regrouping um they they they’ve got battalions that are moving towards k um they what they don’t have is is long range um artillery to uh destroy the Russian formations in Russia because the US has said you can’t hit any Targets in Russia so they’ve got to let the Russians come into Ukraine at the moment they don’t even have the artillery for that and they’re trying to kill them with drones and they don’t have enough drones because the Drone operators are all over the front and so it’s it’s a mess for Ukraine right now I don’t believe that that um uh Ukraine will fall I don’t think that even K will fall I think that that they’ll make some progress they’ll get a few more Villages then Ukraine will Shore up its defenses but it’s a very ugly situation and it’s something it’s a situation of our making because at least from the United States standpoint the United States withheld that military aid for so long well as you were saying that bill I could see somebody nodding vigorously and that somebody’s Mia Meesa who is an MP for kharif in Ukraine and is in karkee right at the moment and Maria I can see you’ve got a t-shirt on saying fight like a Ukrainian um so what is your assessment of what’s going on because fight as you will there the situation around k ke at the moment is not great is it uh friend such a great privilege to uh be with you this evening uh regards from hero City harke the situation is very stable in the city itself but of course the northern part of the region is um quite challenging nevertheless the the recent report from the Ukrainian armed forces and what president zilinsky has just recently reported on his social media we are in Conta offensive uh very successful operations uh which has which are being going already for several days regardless several Villages being under temporary occupation the battle for a very very Strate strategic town called V Chans um in Translation it’s sort of wolf city is now ongoing we are still evacuating people from there around 6,000 women children even animals were evacuated from there we don’t uh it to be uh taken over by Russians the Contra offensive is ongoing with the help of drones artillery indeed we need the long range missiles like Storm Shadow thank you so much for that with the delay in why was yes uh indeed um a little bit saying yes to what uh previous speaker was um mentioning the delay in American Support caused some difficulties I did want to ask you about Maria did uh Ukrainian fighters on the front line and KH Keef notice the lack of shells notice the lack of ammunition for a period and are you beginning to get some more resupplies coming in now yes we are uh you know always um always good to receive uh as much as we’ve requested because it’s a it’s a common defense it’s it’s in terms of NATO operations NATO standards it’s for the good cause for not only for the continent of Europe and its security but for the whole world and of course you know we’re not demanding we’re proving efficiency on the ground uh I’m proudly saying that my family is Con is currently fighting in donbas and um up in the north of harke uh this is extremely challenging circumstances our uh ladies and gentlemen in Ukrainian Army uh are now put in however we knew that this offensive could occur we were preparing and currently General CI president zalinski everyone who is on the ground are doing at their maximum including our governor of the region and of course the recent challenges the recent changes in um the leadership military leadership for the region are also serving the purpose so we are ready we will not give up har will not fall our current Target is to liberate the temporary occupied Villages and I’m sure we will

What could Russia’s latest cabinet reshuffle and renewed offensive action in Ukraine mean?

Russia’s defence minister and long-time Putin ally, Sergei Shoigu, is set to be replaced, the Kremlin has confirmed amid the latest cabinet reshuffle.

Papers published by the upper chamber confirmed that Shoigu, who has served in the role since 2012, according to a the Kremlin website.

It comes more than two years after Russia began its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine – and days after Putin was sworn in for another six-year term as Russia’s president.

Putin has proposed he be replaced by Russia’s former deputy prime minister, Andrei Belousov.

Andrew Marr is joined by American businessman and analyst Bill Browder to reflect on this, as well as Ukrainian MP Mariia Mezentseva to discuss what the delay in support from America means for the nation as Russia launch a renewed offensive.

Listen to the full show on Global Player: https://app.af.globalplayer.com/Br0x/LBCYouTubeListenLive

#AndrewMarr #America #USA #Ukraine #Russia #VladimirPutin #LBC

LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK.

Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/
Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup