How Ukraine uses different NATO missile to target the Kerch Bridge | Matthew Savill

How Ukraine uses different NATO missile to target the Kerch Bridge | Matthew Savill

what it’s got is is a is a longer range than Storm Shadow um and a lot of the the speculation is therefore about could the ukrainians use it to attack the Kirch bridge for example um because uh that’s quite a difficult Target for jets launching Storm Shadow and Scout they have to get a lot closer to Russian air defenses let’s come on to the issue of of Western military support for Ukraine it was interesting that we’ve now had the German foreign minister analina bbok come out and say that she would like to see Ukraine supplied with longer range weapons to actually be able to strike Russian targets there’s been this ongoing debate about whether Ukraine should be allowed to use Western weapons inside Russia and notable that it was the German foreign minister because there is a tension within the German Coalition it would seem over the issue of supplying tourist missiles do you sense that Germany is slowly moving closer towards supplying those um so I’m not not really a sort of you know an expert on the internal mechanics of of the German system but but as you say that that does reflect an internal debate that’s been going on where there seems to be some very strong resistance in parts of the German system um and other areas um are essentially uh feel that they should be following the lead that’s been taken by the UK with Storm Shadow the French with scalp um and now some of the US longer Range Systems that have come in so it’s it’s difficult to know um whether or not you know the Germans will effectively authorize first of all providing for example Taurus in the first place and then whether there’ll be any restrictions on using it um but in essence that approach that’s been taken across the International Coalition which is that somebody normally goes first on a system and that essentially sets a new mark for everyone to step up to is in play and just on the the tourists and their virtues I mean I’ve I’ve read a lot of people saying that they would be more effective in the storm shadows and the scalps for example at hitting bunkers and bridges why is that so I I think Taurus is fundamentally a slightly uh more modern uh similar kind of missile it has a slightly longer range um you know so it’s it is a similar air launch standoff cruise missile which is designed to be essentially you launch it from an aircraft you’re hopefully outside the enemy air defenses and then it goes in relatively low level um so what it’s got is is a is a longer range than Storm Shadow um and a lot of the the speculation is therefore about could the ukrainians use it to attack the Kur bridge for example um because uh that’s quite a difficult Target for jets launching Storm Shadow and Scout they have to get a lot closer to Russian air defenses um so those the advantages is that it provides it could it could do a reasonable amount of damage to that um storm shman Scout Storm sh in particular is an excellent bunker Buster already um so it’s it’s really about hitting that um that large static Target which would in any case be would be an extraordinary difficult Target for cruise missiles of that type anyway just because of its its mass you would probably have to launch quite a lot ated to damage it so I think that the ukrainians will have in mind the kind of targets they want to use against um use it against um it might not be bridge is is number one on the priority list well that’s an interesting point I mean were for example the Us and other Western allies to essentially remove any restrictions on how Western supplied weapons can be used by Ukraine what would be top on the Ukrainian priority list where would they target first do you think well so a lot of the targets they would want to use those cruise missiles against are actually essentially inside Ukraine um or Ukrainian territory as we recognize it so Crimea um where there was some nervousness early on about targeting but but the UK has essentially said is completely within scope for Storm Shadow um so a lot of the success that we’ve seen is against those similar kind of targets I mean as say coach coach Bridge could be on that list because of the increased range a lot of it would also be weapon Supply bunkers and those sorts of things um I think the challenge is that what we’ve seen so far from the essentially the Deep strike campaign is that it is there to complement uh what happens along the front line not replace it so what we saw last year was a lot of very successful attacks on ships in the Black Sea Fleet uh arms dumps headquarters the Black Sea fleet’s headquarters but also Russian Army Headquarters um that caused significant damage um although the Russians are adapting with their air defenses these these missiles still uh sometimes get through if they’re accompanied by other kinds of attacks however that hasn’t led to a collapse in Russian forces on the front line because although it’s their headquarters being hit and it’s their arms dumps being hit they’re still able to fight and maneuver along the front and so in essence that kind of deep strike campaign needs to complement what happens at the front line which is uh still largely about um armored Warfare artillery and increasingly drones and Matthew when it comes to Ukraine using Western supplied weapons behind Russian lines which weapons would be most effective so uh this is where you get into sort of complimenting some of the the operations that the ukrainians are already conducting so they’re using uh drones uh from a variety of sources so probably hugely domestically uh produced um but there’s obviously been Western iner into um some of those systems against uh airfields um and uh energy infrastructure particularly that’s directly supporting uh the Russian military over the Border um but those drone ATT attacks uh they sometimes effectively they get shot down um it seems like they they’ve conducted a pretty successful sabotage campaign across the border as well um where Western support might come in handy would probably be along the lines of the longer range artillery particularly attackers um because you could try and launch uh for example cruise missiles against those targets but again you’ve got to take a lot of risk with the aircraft to get them close and there’s Russian air defenses um that that would effectively threaten those aircraft whereas firing longrange artillery um there’s still a chance that the the Russians could shoot down those incoming Rockets but particularly the ones with with with cluster Warheads they could be used to hit the airfields where Russian aircraft are based um that are conducting the strikes back into Ukraine that’s particularly true of those sites for example where the aircraft that are launching the Glide bombs come from one of the reasons why those pose such a significant challenge for the ukrainians is that they’ve got a reasonable standoff distance maybe 30 to 40 kilometers um but they’re very hard to shoot down in both the numbers um and how they operate they’re very difficult to detect and the Russians have been using loads to pretty devastating effects not just on civilian locations but actually on the front lines and so the best bet for the ukrainians is either to shoot those Jets down um before they launch the weapons and you could do that if you prepared to push for example Patriot further forward and then launch against Russian aircraft in Russian airspace or if you’ve got long-range artillery destroy the aircraft on the ground before they take off um so those are some of the areas where Western supplied weapons could complement some of the systems that the ukrainians have got themselves looking ahead what would constitute a successful next few months for Ukraine what is their best case scenario uh I mean in the wildly optimistic IC uh situation it would be that the uh Russians don’t take any more ground and they can eject this kind of lodgment that’s not um not north of H um but I suspect a successful uh next few months successful year is where they seed as little ground as possible and effectively blunt the Russian advance so in other words they can make an they can make decisions um under their timing and their uh it’s sport their interests about where to see ground but in doing so they bleed the Russians and they caused the Russians to expend those additional people and extra material in such a way as to to really bite into what’s happening I think it’s worth reflecting on the fact that um the Russians first of all their casualties have spiked around har so we could tell so they they’re well in excess of that sort of a thousand a day that they were previously suffering could sustain the second thing is whilst their industry and both their Munitions production um and their material production has has gone up considerably a significant chunk of that and our researchers estimate around 80% of the vehicles and material com to the front line is refurbished so they’re pulling stuff out of stocks and it it seems possible that by the time you get deep into 2025 they’ll have to do another industrial reset because at that point they’ll have to start producing new artillery for example artillery barrels are a key uh challenge alongside munition well they’re going to have to start producing new ones they’re going to have to start producing new armored vehicles because they’re going back as far as the 1960s um for some of what they’ve been pulling out literally of museums um and that’s where the ukrainians if they can build up a sufficiently resourced and well-trained force uh could potentially make Headway if they can learn the lessons of uh 2023 that’s really interesting so you may find yourself in a situation in the not too distant future where Ukraine are have a significant Advantage when it comes to the uh advancement of their supplies uh so yes for next year and I think that’s that’s the other that will be a significant challenge in terms of again expectation management and morale is it seems unlikely not impossible but unlikely an effective Counterattack could be mounted or counter offensive could be mounted this year by the ukrainians the the it was already looking difficult but the delays to material coming in and and again um mobilizing and training to the right level enough people means that the idea that we’re going to see some huge Push by the ukrainians this year short of you know a window an opportunity or Russian erors opening up it’s probably not going to happen and so they do need to be thinking about now about how they can assemble and preserve a force for next year um rather than this year and so this year should really be about if you like blunting the Russians such as that they pay a disproportionate cost um for what look like um advances they’re going to make um and that will be true across the line so thinking about continuing to um hit the Black Sea Fleet thinking about how they can inflict casualties upon the Russian Air Force all of those sorts of things thank you for watching this episode of Frontline for times radio for more on the war in Ukraine subscribe to the times radio YouTube channel listen to times radio on your Digital radio or you can read the Times online with your digital subscription or imprint thank you and goodbye

“The Ukrainians will have in mind the type of targets they want to use it against it might be Kerch Bridges is number one on the priority list.”

Germany could be one step closer to providing Taurus missiles that Ukraine is likely to use to build on it’s strikes on the Kerch Bridge, says RUSI’s Matthew Savill.

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