Russia is losing (time) in Ukraine? [Mapped]

Russia is losing (time) in Ukraine? [Mapped]

for the first time in two years Russia from its own territory has launched an incursion assault towards har resulting in its forces pushing 10 kilm deep into Ukrainian territory the Russian army progress is also evident in chivar or otina but don’t these tactical gains paradoxically Harald a negative trend for Moscow is the kemline running out of time in Ukraine let’s look at the current progress on the front lines in light of the a broader geopolitical situation and take a slightly longer time Horizon on the [Music] map three decades of Internet development have opened up unprecedented opportunities for its users it’s also full of opportunities for criminals who are using ever new methods to get their hands on our sensitive information the consequences of a data Bridge can be very serious phone calls from Bots or emails from unknown senders are just the tip of the iceberg of how our data can be exploited in cogni the sponsor of today’s episode will help you keep your data safe online the identity fft Resource Center reports that the number of data Bridge victims increased by 41.5% between 2021 and 2022 highlighting the scale of the problem meanwhile incog prophylactically prevents such ffts incog contacts the brokers who store our data and instructs them to remove it quickly and legally in accordance with us Canadian Swiss and European Union law they also handle all further communication with the Brokers so you don’t have to waste your time and energy equally important every time your data reappears in the broker’s system incog automatically takes care of it take your personal data back with incog use code good times at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan don’t wait secure your data online now as is the standard of this series let’s start by looking at the situation on the front lines har oblas Direction on May 10th the day after the victory parade in Moscow Russian troops launched offensive operations along the Russian Ukrainian Border in the northern part of the har region the incursion took place in two spots in the direction of Vin and further north towards lukan over the course of several days the Russians managed to achieve a tactical breakthrough of 5 to 10 kilm depending on the location after which the offensive lost momentum as of this writing Tuesday May 21st the Russians have entered Vin while in the north they are trying to break through to the Villages of lipti and Zelena the Ukrainian defense line here relies on the travinski reservoir among others the Ukrainian general staff reported that Ukrainian forces were pushing back Russian forces near Koka while the Russian defense Ministry said that the Russian forces have repulsed Ukrainian counterattacks near lipi elements of Russia’s 18th motorized rifle Division and seventh motorized rifle regiment are most likely operating there according to David aramia leader of the servant of the nation party from which president zalinski hails the Americans do not allow the ukrainians to attack Russian groups with the help of American weapons which are located behind the border line from which attacks are later launched an easy target but no permission aramia notes while there were initial suspicions that the crossb action might be a part of a broader campaign targeting Ukraine’s second largest city AR it quickly became clear that the Russian capabilities amassed in that direction were insufficient for that purpose the main intention is therefore to divert Ukrainian attention from other operational directions and to weaken them in view of Ukraine’s Manpower problems the goal is also inevitably to drive ukrainians away from the nearest front the major Russian city of belgaro belgaro is only 40 km from the Ukrainian border once the Breakthrough was achieved this distance increased to more than 50 km after a week such an objective of the operation was confirmed by Russian president Wladimir Putin who stated that the Russian effort was aimed at creating a buffer zone in response Ukrainian President Vladimir zalinski said that Ukrainian forces had stabilize the front in the northern har region and that Russian forces had not reached Ukraine’s concrete and strongest line of defense in the area it is also possible that the Russians wanted to carry out this action before the ukrainians received more extensive military aid as a part of the $60 billion package passed in the United States a month ago on the 20th of May the ukrainians also reported that the Russians were preparing a new grouping in the sui Direction although it is limited and underere equi its purpose is to further stretch the fewer Ukrainian troops and to that end it may prove effective Lin oblas Direction the Russians Remain the advancing side along the katov Kina axis but recent weeks have brought no significant changes to the front which remains essentially Frozen however in recent days the Russians have reported their slight advances in the barest OFA area which The Institute for the study of War says is confirmed by satellite imagery fighting is also taking place near siniva Ivanka pava St mahka makka and turn among other areas the Russian defense Ministry has claimed that the village of borka has been captured but even Russian mil bloggers have declared this to be false or premature a spokesman for a Ukrainian unit operating in the direction of kenk stated that the Russian forces have recently intensified their attacks on KK that are suffering heavy casualties as a result this footage shows Ukrainian troops destroying five Russian tanks and five bmps between the Villages of torsk and th west of Kina meanwhile the ukrainians are carrying out attacks on Russian Targets in the suburbs of Lisk for this purpose the use of French delivered scalp EG missiles was confirmed the remains of which were found on the ground the attack is said to have targeted the buildings of the Lisk Academy of internal affairs which was supposed to be a place where soldiers were stationed Donis oblast Direction over the past two months the Russians have continued their Advance on chassi V but while they have managed to occupy most of the German forest that separates ianis from chivar the ukrainians are keeping the aggressors away from the settlement borders the Russian progress in the last two months in this direction can be estimated at about 3 km Cal returning to the the northern part of the region the Ukrainian staff reports the Russian military activity has increased especially in cesk fting is also taking place near roska bka ver and vka at the level of horka and New York the front remains stable which cannot be said about the situation near aiva since our last report the Russians have deepened the Breakthrough in this section taking almost all of otina and no mka Russian progress can also be seen in the settlements of uman and pervom over the past 2 months Kremlin forces have moved the front line up to 8 kilm in their favor the goal is to seize the Key h32 Road linking constantina and pokrov which then links with the m30 road to dipro the artery is essential for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to resupply The Defenders of chif among others the Russians are also advancing in the marinka area specifically at the level of korivka where they have ceased part of the settlement as well as noo miarka Russian forces are also trying to attack at the level of Vadar in mlis but these attempts are fruitless and the front remains Frozen Southern Ukraine Direction it will soon be one year since the Ukrainian offensive campaign started in this area which ultimately failed for various reasons also the front has remained essentially unchanged for the past 12 months although both sides are attempting offensive actions given the general stage of the war it is usually the Russians fighting continues around uro star mayor prut verb and robot cover Kremlin forces are said to be close to taking robotin as confirmed by satellite imagery according to esw the Russians are also expected to move Southwest of jul Po harison Crimea Direction the ukrainians maintain their small Bastion on the Left Bank of the dener near kinki ke’s forces also continue to attack various Targets in Russian occupied Crimea in the past few days the ukrainians have launched two major attacks on a number of targets first on the 17th of May they attacked the port of sevastopol with two atoms missiles again targeting ships of the Black Sea Fleet there are no satellite images yet but Russian bloggers reported that up to two ships were hit the mine sweeper kovetz and the small kakur class missile Corvette cyone which entered service barely a year ago even more consequential was the Drone strike on May 19th perhaps the largest massive Ukrainian drone attack since the beginning of the war which targeted seasol and the croda region the Russians claim to have shot down 51 drones of over Crimea 44 over kodar and six over belgaro but these claims cannot be verified here we can see footage from nov rois of Russians celebrating the Downing of a drone while firing bullets at their own City in the second footage we can see the aftermath of the Russian shelling of nov rois despite claims Russian air defenses LED some of the drones through a power plant in sevastopol was damaged causing blackouts in addition the Bell back Airbase was attacked again destroying two Meek 31s one Sue 27 and one Meek 29 meanwhile in the kodar cry the tuab refinery was targeted this footage shows Ukrainian Li drones the Drone can carry a payload of up to 50 kg of explosives a performance similar to Iran’s shahad 146 and is responsible for most Ukrainian attacks on Targets in Russia’s deep interior speaking of strikes Inland this map shows all Targets of Ukrainian attacks on Russian fuel sector refineries fuel Depots oil and gas terminals despite us objections the ukrainians continue to attack these sites in an attempt to squeeze the funding base of the Russian war machine the hydrocarbon sector in recent weeks alone The Tampa Refinery the slavian refinery and the pavot refinery in kuga have been hit according to one NATO official by late March the Ukrainian attacks may have reduced Russian refining capacity by 15% forcing the Kremlin to announce a six-month ban on gazoline exports in an article for foreign affairs the authors take issue with the American argument that the ukrainians should not attack Russian refineries because it will raise Global oil prices and have a negative impact on the global energy situation Lloyd Austin Secretary of Defense stated that quote the ukrainians should be attacking tactical and operation AAL targets unquote apparently instead of that’s what we add strategic targets which are refineries meanwhile the attacks reduce Russian refining capacity but not crude oil exports in other words the Russians are forced to sell cheaper unrefined oil instead of more expensive refined oil it is no coincidence that Ukrainian drones are hitting refineries not oil fields or Transportation infrastructure data confirms that Russia is now exporting more crude oil when refined products such as gasoline diesel jet fuel Etc which have much higher margins are at historic lows Moscow exported about 72,000 tons of diesel and other petroleum products in the last week of April down nearly 150,000 tons from the same period last year and so Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure are therefore certain to continue especially as Ukraine’s drone capacity production increases yet Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure are even more serious on May 8th Russia launched another massive attack launching 55 cruise and ballistic missiles accompanied by 21 drones the targets of the attack were energy infrastructure facilities in the pava ovat zapia Lviv iano frankis and Venia regions as volodimir omelchenko of the razumov center reports as a result of this and many other attacks up to 70% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is now destroyed damaged or in occupied territory ke is bailing out by importing energy from Poland Romania and Slovakia among others meanwhile Ukrainian operator DC reported in the second week of May that it had temporarily lost up to 90% of its generating capacity as a result of Russian missile attacks that is why one of the most frequent calls from ukrainians in recent times has been not for artillery ammunition but for instruments to defend against air strikes in a recent meeting with US Secretary of State Antony blinkin Ukrainian President Vladimir zalinski said that additional air defenses are quote our biggest deficit these demands have been noted in the Western Community but no concrete action has yet been seen that’s why zinski is urging NATO countries to shoot down Russian missiles flying over Ukraine from Alliance territory but the chance of NATO taking such action seems illusory today as for the aforementioned artillery ammunition on May 16th zinski surprised observers by saying that for the first time since the invasion began quote no Ukrainian Brigade has a shortage of artillery shells unquote so it seems that the Czech initiative which we have often mentioned in our reports and which was supposed to guarantee ke 1.5 million shells later this year has partially materialized interesting ly as late as the end of April Ukrainian informant reported that their artillery was suffering from starvation meanwhile the United States is nearing an agreement with the Europeans to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine the Americans are more aggressive in this regard and are inclined to full confiscation unlike the Europeans mainly the Germans French and belgians where the most of the Russian assets are located the Euro CLE Financial Group based in Belgium calls as much as $190 billion of the 300 billion Frozen Russian assets the said consensus would not necessarily be based on a direct seizure of funds but on the use of the interest generated by these assets however it would not be the interest itself that would be transferred to Ukraine which is only $3 billion a year but a loan to the ukrainians based on it in this case the amount Rises to $50 billion at the time of writing the G7 Finance ministers were scheduled to meet in the hope of finalizing a plan to present the heads of States before the group’s leaders meet next month and so after more than 2 years of war there are no signs on the horizon that it might end anytime soon although his term has expired zalinsky remains in power in Ukraine as the war drags on Putin on the other hand in the style of a modern tar has begun his fifth term but actually he’s sixth counting the Medvedev period in which he receded into the Shadows this time his most significant move on the chessboard of the Kremlin elite under his stewardship was to OU Sergey Shu from his position as defense minister and replace him with Andre beluso the former Finance Minister the choice of beluso who is described as an efficient financier and someone who looks Over the Horizon albeat without any military experience means the budget requires more and more scrutiny it is not without reason that he has been assigned to the ministry of Defense as already 35% of the Russian budget is consumed by the military and the defense industry on the other hand it also means that Moscow is further preparing for the long game in Ukraine Ukraine itself of course is in much worse Financial shape on the other hand the West which supports it is de facto financially unaffected by this war as a result we arrive at a paradox in which we get several asymmetries in the Russia Ukraine West triangle the first is involvement Russia and Ukraine are very much involved in the conflict although Ukraine is obviously the party involved the most the West on the other hand is engaged symbolically the second is Financial Resources Ukraine is an actor with fewer resources than Russia but in a relationship smaller than the difference between Russia and the West we are talking about roughly about $200 billion in the case of Ukraine $2 trillion in the case of Russia and $40 trillion in gross domestic product in the case of the West the third factor is human resources from which the West should be plotted here the advantage of Russian conscription potential is about 1 to4 or even 1 to5 and so the Paradox is that Ukraine remains relatively stable in this war despite the relatively little Western involvement relatively little Western involvement is the key phrase in that sentence it is worth taking a close look at the numbers leaders of NATO countries including the Polish foreign minister recently say that European countries and America are currently at a similar level of net contributions to the Ukrainian war effort let’s say it was about $50 billion per Power Center a total of $300 billion over 2 years Western economies produced about $80 trillion worth of goods during the same period transfers to Ukraine which also contribute to the growth of Western economies does account for 0.4% of the western s’s output taking the perspective of an average person who produc produces $2,000 or EOS worth of products in his work this is equivalent to spending $8 or E on a meal at McDonald’s Russia as we said spends 35% of its Budget on war spending or more than 7% of its GDP these are figures from the prestigious Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in nominal terms we are talking about $140 billion that is roughly speaking the spending of two sides balances out of course only a part of western Aid goes to strictly military aid but on the other hand despite the small size of its economy Ukraine invests about 35% of its GDP in its Armed Forces resulting in quite a significant additional $65 billion so let’s return for a moment to our asymmetry of involvement from an economic perspective Ukraine 35% of his GDP obviously feels the war the most and is five times more involved than Russia 7% Russia 7% on the other hand is 17 times more involved than the West 0.4% for whom this is the equivalent of one meal at McDonald’s per month thus it can be hypothesized that the Ukrainian sacrifice combined with the Deep Pockets of the West despite its very low involvement is nevertheless a more stable situation than that of the Russian side why is that because in the long Horizon Wars are won by the economy and the arms industry meanwhile these two factors are already crackling from overload in Russia today while this does not translate into any strategic success meanwhile the West is lazily rolling out its factories while economically the war is within statistical error for it so it may not be the case that time is on Russia’s side in this war a thing that has often appeared in various analysis of the issue over the past year yes the the West could end this war in a few months if it wanted to but apparently it doesn’t want to or doesn’t have such willpower and is cruising with the flow but even in this minimalist version this keeps keeping Ukraine in a war that is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to finance as evidenced by the allocation of as much as 35% of the federal budget Russia has the military economic resources for about 5 years of war and the current intensity that is the claim of among others The International Institute for strategic studies and that would mean that we are at the halfway point of depleting Russian potential so let’s look at the current situation on the front line through such a prism the Russians are motivated to push because every additional month with no change means big problems for the regime as early as the end of 2025 on the other hand zalinski is not hitting the West as hard as he did even a year ago but is much more calmly managing the country in the war so he is calming the narrative in the international Forum he’s doing this because he knows that for a positive outcome first he must wait out Russia and second he cannot antagonize and tire out the West with Ukraine he may even think that maintaining the current level of annual Western eight will be enough for him in a 2 to threeyear time Horizon eting Russian sources of income refineries is also useful as each such hit is potentially a few days less of War on the other hand he needs to keep the country alive for that time and he can’t do that without a stable Energy System which is why he has changed the narrative from offensive measures to instruments of air defense the second key factor in stopping the adversary where Ukrainian stands out is Manpower that is why the KE government is taking new mobilization initiatives despite opposition from some segments of the population on May 18th a new law came into Force another in a series to facilitate the recruitment of new recruits into the army and stabilize the situation in the Ukrainian Armed Forces zalinski is also aware that Ukraine could receive its first f-16s as early as June let’s not forget that the West albeit with its characteristic sluggishness is increasing its production capacity and continues to have Stockyards full of thousands of pieces of military equipment in this case we are talking about mainly The Americans meanwhile Russia is clearing its Soviet era warehouses of everything that moves while the rest is being cannibalized for repairs and the production capacity of the factories is being pushed to the limits Michael Koffman believes it is doubtful that the new production will be able to replace even 20% of the current losses which is why we are seeing more and more 70-year-old t-54 tanks on the front lines ke’s strategy May therefore be to wisely hold off the enemy limit it its own human losses and to wait for more advanced Western systems such as F-16 aircraft to reduce Russia’s Manpower Advantage Ukraine may not be looking for an offensive like the one that everyone expected a year ago in the direction of Southern Ukraine but rather to degrade the enemy’s forces and take advantage of local opportunities as they arise recall kion’s crate part of this campaign however will be a massive expansion of fortifications the first sign of a tottering Russian Colossus will not necessarily be serious financial problems the crine can always tighten the screws and extract those funds from its citizens the problem that will be much harder to compensate for will be shortages of heavy equipment these are already visible as such problems pile up not only will the Russians be unable to mount further offensive operations but holding the territory they already hold today could become a problem still bearing the unexpected this is probably a prospect of at least several months in our March report we said that Russia may have picked at this stage of the war and while it still has the upper hand in many aspects the pendulum of the war is now swinging back to the Ukrainian side ke is calmly waiting for it and is not panicking in the face of moves such as the har offensive finishing with the words of the aformentioned Michael Koffman one of the leading experts on this war which he said before us8 announcement quote if Ukraine can hold through 2024 Russia’s current advantage in this war does not necessarily increase or become decisive but instead can decrease over timequote and that will be just the beginning of Russia’s problems

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