Taiwan: More likely ‘when rather than if’ China will take action against Taiwan, says analyst
so what do China’s drills around Taiwan tell us our military analyst Shan Bell joins me in the studio so Sean first of all let’s discuss why Taiwan is so important to China yeah good afternoon Simon I mean the South China Sea is at a Crossroads really of two Global Maritime routs it’s a link between the Indian and Pacific Oceans about a third of the global trade runs through this area also in the South China Sea there are massive oil and gas reserves um they qu that 11 billion barrels of oil are in there and that by by reference that’s about 30 years of UK production it’s a huge amount now China’s been absolutely building artificial islands all over the place militar militarizing them in trying to extend their influence there uh the other important thing if we look at the other map is China’s Coast uh next to the South China Sea is actually relatively shallow it’s not really clear on here but it’s about 30 m deep China militarily wants to run nuclear submarines they only work if they are out of sight out of M at the moment they’ve got a long Transit where they can be seen if you look at the coastline just off to the east of Taiwan here it’s on the edge of the continental plate and just drops away so if you would to have a a nuclear submarine base there it could operate a lot more effectively now China’s always insisted Taiwan is part of its orbit it will reunify at some stage so the question is now were these drills just a sort of one of these periodic issues that crops up or is there something slightly more Sinister and given the fact they only gave 45 minutes warning for for them it does appear China’s testing taiwan’s um defensive capability yeah so let’s explore that more then um the recent drills follow Decades of tension as as we’ve said uh do you think China’s any closer than to actually invading Taiwan it does feel as if the situation is changing slightly you remember the last time they did these drills was back in August 2022 when Nancy Pelosi uh famously did that visit to Tai Taiwan but Xi Jinping has been hosting President Putin in a sort of State visit only last week um and um they’ve talked about their sort of Limitless partnership now Xi Jinping is wants to change the world order the us-led world order that resonates with President Putin and uh um also China’s very interested in how Putin is getting on with the invasion of Ukraine because although the West has been involved to provide ammunition and weapons it hasn’t directly intervened and all of that will inform XI jinping’s judgment about whether to go into Taiwan now wouldn’t all go China’s way China’s got some difficult economic challenges at the moment Wars cost a lot of money and of course undoubted the West would just stop buying uh any Chinese exports the moment that something like that happened but China normally plays the long game unfortunately over time Taiwan taiwan’s felt more and more independent so it feels like time’s not on China’s side so China’s judgment probably will be the West won’t intervene take about 3 months to take the islands and they just live with the consequences in a troubl is with all of this it just feels it’s more likely now when rather than if China decides to take action against Taiwan right Sean thank you very much indeed
China’s military has finished two days of military drills around Taiwan in the greatest escalation in tension across the Taiwan Strait since 2022.
China’s military described the drills this week as a simulation of how to “seize power” on the island.
Taiwan’s defence ministry condemned the action, calling them an “irrational provocation and actions that disrupt peace and stability in the region”.
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21 comments
1989 Tiananmen Square
Taiwan has to defend itself. Along with Europe.
The United States has always recognized Taiwan as part of China through the one China policy. The only reason we are switching up now is because of the United States trying to start a new Cold War with China since they are doing good. The United States destroys anyone who is doing good.
When rather than if ! Now do the pacifist WOKE liberal elites understand ? Probably not.
时间站在中国这边
'When' should be the question, not 'why',' if', 'because' or 'who' .
One US military advisor said. Let China take Taiwan because there military would be so damaged and weakened China wouldn't recover or be a threat for decades to come.
FACT:
"IF" the world woke up and said enough is enough, China would crumble. It's time the world stop purchasing Cheap Chinese crap.
very soon he will say USA won't …. although US has solid relationship with taiwan government.
If this guy says Taiwan is going to win, the opposite will happen Definitely.
since we were so wrong in our Russia-Ukraine predictions…let's have a fresh start with China-Taiwan, hoping our audience wont notice…🧐…😮…🥹
World at War.. instead of the Politician's keeping stuff from the public for years.Why don't they come out and say….this is where we are heading .
All this over the tech company nevada
China is after the technology that Taiwan 🇹🇼 have
Suppose Britain will send the fleet , to be sank.😅
Sanctions on china post an invasion would change the world as we know it. Almost all goods would become incredibly expensive.. not to mention the fact the Chinese would have control of taiwans exports (semiconductors etc)
It wouldn’t be good for anyone..
Is it 30 years of UK oil production or consumption?
China's possible invasion will surely bring serious consequences to the whole country as well as the whole world. Feels like this guy is telling more what people may want to hear and less what the reality is. Taiwan is strongly armed and is home to one of the most crucial industries in the world, the chip industry. A possible attack on the island could bring the world economic development to halt and put at stake China's social-economic stability, specially in the event of a miscalculation by the CCP in this regard. Lived in Taiwan for more than 5 years as well in mainland China for another 5 years or so. I still consider Taiwan as my second home and hope that Taiwan can remain independent and the onwer of its own destiny for the years to come. Above all, the world needs peace and love, that is what, in the end, will bring us all together.
😂😂😂😂😂😂
50 to 1
They could drag on for years after years
Just look at Ukraine, 2 years, 20 million people displayed
It is a Chinese island. Its not like it belongs to other country, and Taiwan isnt a country in its own right.