Russia Attacks Again in Ukraine: What’s Happening?

Russia Attacks Again in Ukraine: What’s Happening?

after months of stalemate on the front line Russian troops have now resumed their Advance into Ukraine thousands evacuated in Ukraine as Russia advances in kke region on 10th of May the Russian military pounced on several key locations in Northern Ukraine specifically around the city of HEV according to reports from keev Russia has collected a large amount of artillery fire that has forced the Ukrainian Army to have to abandon several of the positions they recaptured last last year visual politic Community for months Ukraine managed Against All Odds to hold its lines however the delay in arms deliveries is taking its toll of course with the new arms delivery plans that have been approved in the United States and across Europe this situation should change but for the time being in an attempt to turn the tables the Allies have crossed yet again what until a few weeks ago was a Red Line This is precisely what we’re talking about Biden allows Ukraine to hit some Targets in Russia with us weapons Germany allows Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia with German weapons and it’s not just the United States and Germany virtually all NATO countries are accepting the same position now Ukraine has the green light it can use Western Equipment to attack military positions inside Russia itself it is a new abrupt turn in the course of this damned War but keep in mind the authorization is not unlimited it is limited exclusively to areas bordering Ukraine which some military experts are already saying is not enough enough be that as it may it stands to reason that Ukraine is not passing up the opportunity Ukraine begins strikes on Russian soil using Us weapons of course Putin has been quick to react how by doing what he has done many times before threatening the West with fullscale war he has even suggested that Russia could deliver long-range weapons to other contenders so that they can attack for them if they consider it possible to deliver such weapons to the combat zone to launch strikes on our territory and create problems for us why don’t we have the right to supply weapons of the same type to some regions of the world where they can be used to launch strikes on sensitive facilities of the countries that do it to Russia which countries might Putin be referring to Iran North Korea perhaps a terrorist group for now it’s a mystery what we do know is that the Russian president has just added to his already long list of threats which will probably end up like the rest having no effect whatsoever [Music] but now back to Ukraine the Russian offensive right now is stalled but the truth is that for things to get back to where they were at the beginning of 2024 it would take a fresh Ukrainian counter offensive in the H region a region that has not been a particularly active combat zone during the last few months just look at this map the Russian army has penetrated through two areas of hak or Blast from belgorod one of the Russian regions most targeted by Ukrainian drones and other devices in recent months attacks with which Ukraine sought to diminish moscow’s military capabilities in the area precisely to stop these types of advances now the question is what the hell are the Russians playing at are they really trying to reoccupy large parts of Ukraine are they trying to take over khi for the tinth time well according to Vladimir Putin himself the truth is that they are not Russia not seeking karv capture claims Putin of course if this war has taught us anything it’s that Putin lies more than he talks so many military analysts are already doing their calculations to find out what Russia’s real intentions might be with these new counter offensives and that has spurred us at visual politics to ask a few questions of our own what are these intentions what resources does Moscow have at its disposal more importantly what can Ukraine do to avoid what could be one of the worst case scenarios of the past 2 years well we’re going to take a look at all this and more so let’s get [Music] started sometimes we forget but the war in Ukraine is not letting up even if months go by without many new developments which is exactly what happened over the past winter once again the front became a terrible meat grinder for both sides a war of attrition militarily economically and psychologically but where things hardly moved that has now changed the Russian Advanced north of HEV set off all the alarms in the Ukrainian ranks the fear is that the Russians will try to create a new front to expand the line of fighting and thus dilute the punished and tired Ukrainian defenses but I think that you will see it much clearer on this map until a few weeks ago the war in Ukraine was limited to the areas already occupied by Russia the south east and east of the country the rest North southwest and west were well Consolidated under Ukrainian control however the Russians bursting through a new front in the north means redoubling the mobilization of resources artillery and troops in a context where Firepower is scarce for ke on all its fronts it makes all the sense in the world after all if Russia has superiority in anything it is in two key elements Manpower and artillery but that’s not all why exactly do they want to enter once again through a place where they have already failed several times well the general idea is that the Russian dictator seeks to put an end to Ukrainian operations against belgrod and even against K many of which are launched precisely from harke or blast similarly with this move the Russians might be seeking to isolate battalions such as the Russian volunteer Corp the Russian Freedom Legion and the Siberian Battalion the three military groups that are part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces but which are made up of Russian defectors and that usually operate within Russia itself and exactly the same can be said of the Bel rusian regiment which also operates in HEV and which as you can imagine is indeed made up of Bel rusian deserters we’re talking about groups that I’m sure you are familiar with because since last year they have entered Russia from time to time for quick raids to attack Villages military checkpoints and to carry out sabotage anti-putin militia claims to have overrun Village in Russia border region of belgaro as you can imagine for Russia the Ukrainian attacks and the incursions of these militias are not only a military problem in regions where there is a high concentration of bases missile arsenals and logistic centers absolutely key for keeping alive the possibility of carrying out a new large scale offensive they are also and perhaps above all a political problem a headache and a real blow to the image of control and strength that the Kremlin want to convey Ukrainian and Russian defectors attacking almost however and whenever they want inside Russian territory no propaganda or journalists in the pay of the Kremlin can hide such a thing as you can imagine it is a terrible letter of introduction for Putin and precisely because of this the Russian leader says he wants to create a buffer zone along the northern border inside Ukraine we will be forced at some point when we deem it appropriate to create a certain sanitary Zone in the current territories under ke’s regime’s control to create a security Zone that will be quite difficult to cross with the means of Destruction that the enemy is using well this is what the Russian president says but some doubts stood arise here what are the possible scenarios that this move brings could Ukraine withstand a new front well let’s take a look a new script for the same War let’s see there is one thing we have to be very clear about the north of har could be key for the future of the war we’re talking about an area with reservoirs rivers and forests that make any Russian military operation difficult the problem is that Ukraine has few military ground reserves to control this territory as all its efforts have been focused on maintaining the front lines in the south and east of the country which are the most active zapor rizia donet Lans Kon surely you’ve heard these names a thousand times so what does this mean that we can interpret this latest Russian offensive under three different scenarios first we have the possibility that the Russians really do want to create a Zone on the border to put a stop to Ukrainian attacks and incursions by defecto militias secondly there is the option that they are preparing a large scale attack Russia could try to retake the area liberated by the successful Ukrainian counter offensive in late summer 2022 that would obviously be a severe military and psychological blow to Ukraine and then thirdly there is the scenario that everything is a mere maneuver of attrition and deception let’s just say that Russia could be trying to immobilize Ukrainian troops in this territory whose mission would be to secure the H area the point is that this would weaken other areas of the front because as we’ve already told you ukrainians are not very well resourced keep in mind that right now the Russians have 1,200 km that’s 745 Mi of line of contact with Ukrainian forces that forces Ukraine to have a lot of men scattered up and down that line which prevents it from creating a main Battlefront what’s more with such a long front Western teams are diluted for if anything has become clear from the course of the war it’s that the ukrainians are very afraid of a Russian incursion breaking through therefore instead of opting to create a heavily armed front which is what Washington is asking for they are opting to deploy force in many different positions now with these new offensives these lines are getting even longer and with that come all the problems well this is what the main military analyses say now which of these three scenarios is most likely well that is the great dilemma for now what seems clear is that we aren’t facing a major Russian offensive at least in the north the Russian troops that have been mobilized are rather small in number and the information that exists at the moment for instance from satellite imagery does not show that a large Russian Force is being mobilized in this area that leaves two possibilities either the buffer zone or tactical deception the former is not nonsense if Russia were to establish a strip under its control on the northern border it would not only succeed in stopping many attacks on belgorod it would also have an easier time attacking the harke metropolitan area with artillery and also the railway line to the east which is essential for supplying the Ukrainian Eastern Front once more this move would also allow the Russian army to enter Ukraine with small armed battalions for sabotage or surprise attacks it would basically be turning the tables on what the ukrainians and defective militias can do now and that of course would be a real headache for zelinsky’s military Ukrainian attrition would multiply this could explain why such a limited offensive was launched and soon came to to nothing us says Russian offensive against kiv stalled of course you can see that the result is not so little now having said that the question now is where do Russia and Ukraine stand today apart from these new incursions in the north what about the fronts that were already established the Eastern and Southern fronts what on Earth has been going on well let’s take a look The Dilemma let’s be clear as we were saying the lack of weapons and ammunition has taken its toll on the ukrainians this was something we all expected to this day the Russians control points that were real symbols for a long time I’m talking about places like bakut or aiva both on the Eastern front in donet even worse they continue to advance orbe it slowly and at enormous human cost in fact the Russians have been pressing the Ukrainian lines in donk for weeks trying to break them it is a slow but steady movement let me say it again if there is one thing Russia has plenty of it’s human FL and all this is happening while industrial capacity and ammunition supply to the Russian military has improved for instance North Korea alone has allowed Moscow to accumulate more artillery rounds and it’s believed that pongyang could deliver between 1 and 3 million shells annually to the Russians no joke and that is not all according to some projections Russia could eventually produce more than 2 million shells of both 152 mm and 122 mm caliber on its own this would be twice the amount of artillery produced by both the United States and the European Union for sending to Ukraine yes it’s true that Western weapons are more accurate and therefore more lethal so not so many rounds are needed to do the same job we’re talking about a substantial difference that makes one thing very clear Russia is already seriously entering a war economy mode and efforts to redirect industrial production towards War are bearing fruit in fact as we already told you here on visual politic the recent switch of Defense Minister Sergey shyu a military man for Andrea beluso an economist has a lot to do with this and the problem is that in the west this process has hardly occurred let’s see the new arms deliveries will be of great help to Ukraine there is no doubt about that Kei may not only manage to stabilize the front but even attempt new offensives in 2025 the problem is that all this assistance remains limited and if the war drags on it’s unclear how it will end because Ukraine not only needs equipment it also and especially needs ammunition and that is precisely what is in short supply and of course in Europe the Boost to military industry remains in four political speeches a couple of folders and nowhere else but when it comes down to it the increase in military industrial production has been small compared to that of Russia according to rosc the Russian state-owned industrial giant drone production increased 80% by the end of 2023 and while we’re not going to be the ones to take these figures at face value what is certain is that Russian rearmament is happening and that is not good news for Ukraine especially if if a lot of Western military equipment does not start arriving in a very short period of time and that brings us to another absolutely key question what on Earth is going on with that Western Equipment well we’ll tell you right now gray clouds over [Music] KV to put it very simply a conventional War like this is decided by two things equipment and Manpower that is the number of soldiers available to fight well the problem is that Ukraine has been having problems in both areas for a long time during the months that zelinsky’s men have not received American weapons they have suffered an awful lot in fact the Ukrainian president himself said at the end of March that his troops were doing their best not to retreat you see last year the Ukrainian military reported that they need at least 10,000 artillery shells per day to sustain the war effort but deliveries have been much smaller in April deliveries plummeted to just 2,000 shells this will change in the coming months as Ukraine’s allies are buying ammunition all over the world but we’ll see if that effort is consistent if not will’ll be back to square one as you can appreciate it’s very difficult a heroic act to keep a battle line standing against a country like Russia under such circumstances and the truth is that the ukrainians have succeeded and that in itself is admirable the problem is that the attrition has been enormous and that has handed the initiative back to the Russians and although US military aid is again arriving it could be months before the ukrainians can catch up and be able to fire back at the Russians to the levels of the past however weapons are not the only problem facing Ukraine although many War analysts have focused on that challenge Ukraine is now beginning to have another problem as well Manpower it’s becoming increasingly difficult to keep up with the pace of Recruitment and Troop replacement needed to supply the front on top of that the mass immigration of refugees including many thousands of men has started to burn the Ukrainian government obviously the lack of Manpower will eventually a problem in fact since the War Began an estimated 650,000 able-bodied men have left the country this would be enough to sustain the war effort for a few more years if necessary that’s why words like this are also not so shocking given the context a man of conscription age went abroad showed his state that he does not care about its survival and then comes and wants to receive services from this state it does not work this way our country is at War visual politic Community the lack of weapons or ammunition can be solved by manufacturing more or asking your allies for them but the lack of men and women able to fight has no easy solution obviously you cannot manufacture people from one month to the next as if they were missiles and the only option to balance with Russia would be one that is not and will not be on the table a much larger military endowment that allows multiplying the combat capacity of each effective member but you can see that in spite of everything Western Aid arrives in dribs and drabs and in the form of equipment that is not exactly new and with scarce ammunition well because of this the KE government has had to start taking tougher measures for example on 12th of April zalinski decided to remove the limits to military service which practically leaves Frontline officers with no possibility of retirement and rest and that’s not all not only is there a lack of people in the armed forces but there is also a lack of military personnel with sufficient experience to lead battalions and attack operations similarly on 17th of May zinsky signed a law allowing prisoners to be mobile I ized for training and integration into the Ukrainian reserves the situation is not the best lack of ammunition and lack of soldiers but as if that were not enough there is still more another problem the ukrainians are having that may have favored the Russian counter offensive is the shortage of defensive military engineering and flaws in the design of Ukrainian fortifications particularly in comparison with the Russians who as you may recall were quite successful in stopping last year’s Ukrainian counter offensive on the southern front and it’s not just us saying this but the ukrainians themselves admit it just look the first line of fortifications and mines simply did not exist the enemy freely entered the gray Zone through the borderline which in principle should not have been gray now once we know all this the question is what could be done to allow Ukraine to turn the tables again well let’s take a look Ukraine what do you [Music] need in this video we focused on the weaknesses Ukraine faces is do you know what we all knew that 2024 would be a very difficult year here on visual politic we already told you about it in videos like this one the idea this year is that Ukraine will manage to hold out while new Western Equipment arrives with which they can try to break through the Russian lines in 2025 for now the first piece may be the F-16 Ukraine has been ordering F-16 Fighters since the beginning of the conflict now after several months of waiting the first ones could arrive by the end of June or early July Li and we’re not just talking about a few we’re talking about 60 aircraft from Norway Denmark the Netherlands and Belgium which could rival Russian fourth generation Fighters such as the suky Sue 27 or sue3 which are heavily used by the Russians in their attacks from Ukraine it is expected that the f-16s could provide air support to ground forces and annihilate Russian air defenses of course using these fighters in the war will be no easy task for starters because although the West has been training Ukrainian Pilots for months there are no real experienced Pilots with experience at the controls of this aircraft but be that as it may the delivery of the f-16s and the enormous amount of Aid committed by the Allies both by the United States and by the European governments is the plan with which it is hoped that the tables can be turned once again in the not too distant future but guess what more is needed the Allies need to get their act together because if this war has shown anything it’s that their military capabilities have more holes in them than Swiss chief as always we on visual politic will be closely watching everything that happens and we’ll be here to tell you all the details but for now it’s over to all of you how do you think the war will develop in the coming months well leave us your opinions Below in the comments and we’ll start a debate and very important if you like this video like it and subscribe to visual politic if you haven’t already done so as always thank you so much for being there all the best see you next time [Music]

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After months of stagnation at the front, Russian troops have now resumed their advance in Ukraine. In this video, we explain what is happening.

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