Research: Update Statistics from book “Breakout Nations”. I have re-collected data for “Four Seasons Index”, as mentioned in the book. Earlier data was of 2011.



Context: In the book Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles. Autor makes a observation t -If a developing country has very high hotel prices,then the likelihood of that country to have reasonable growth decreases.

Layman Analogy:
Just imagine if the cost of hotel stay is the same for California (developed country ) and Mumbai,India (Developing Country).

This would indicate(one or many) the following:-
(1) High cost of doing business. Hence bad for growth.
(2) High real estate cost hence higher room rents. (Real Estate Bubble)
(3)Bad electricity/security Infrastructure. [Lots of developing countries don't have reliable electricity, hence business need to use diesel generators which cost  a lot of money]
(4) Developing countries with high crime makes the cost of doing business expensive.

The book has stats of 2011,I have gathered data for July 2024.
1)In order for an apples to apples comparison, only the biggest cities in each country are chosen.
2)Only Four Seasons hotel prices are listed. (If Four Seasons is not there, a comparable 5 star hotel is chosen)(3) Cheapest room,with taxes.

Below is 2011 data from the book.

CountryCity (Name of alternate property if applicable)Rates in USD ($) [August 2011]Differences vs. Emerging Average
BrazilSao Paulo (Fasano)72063%
DEVELOPED MARKETS AVERAGE70460%
TurkeyIstanbul65949%
United Arab EmiratesDubai (Ritz-Carlton)61340%
NigeriaLagos (Federal Palace)59735%
ArgentinaBuenos Aires52018%
Czech RepublicPrague51717%
Saudi ArabiaRiyadh4604%
EMERGING MARKETS AVERAGE4410%
MexicoMexico City440-0.30%
HungaryBudapest421-5%
EgyptCairo380-14%
IndiaMumbai378-14%
South AfricaJohannesburg (The Westcliff)365-17%
ChinaShanghai359-19%
PolandWarsaw (Le Royal Meridien)259-41%
ThailandBangkok234-47%
IndonesiaJakarta230-48%
MalaysiaKuala Lumpur (Ritz-Carlton)160-64%
Sri LankaColombo (Galle Face Hotel—Regency Wing)156-65%

Below is 2024 data that I have collected.

CountryCity (Name of alternate property if applicable)Rates in USD ($) [August 2024]Differences vs. Emerging Average [2024]
DEVELOPED MARKETS AVERAGE1103136%
TurkeyIstanbul970107%
HungaryBudapest77966%
BrazilSao Paulo (Fasano)71853%
South AfricaJohannesburg (The Westcliff)68246%
Czech RepublicPrague66041%
ArgentinaBuenos Aires64738%
MexicoMexico City64738%
ThailandBangkok57523%
EMERGING MARKETS AVERAGE4680%
EgyptCairo455-3%
Saudi ArabiaRiyadh384-18%
United Arab EmiratesDubai (Ritz-Carlton)371-21%
IndonesiaJakarta335-28%
PolandWarsaw (Le Royal Meridien)299-36%
ChinaShanghai250-47%
IndiaMumbai215-54%
MalaysiaKuala Lumpur (Ritz-Carlton)203-57%
NigeriaLagos (Federal Palace)167-64%
Sri LankaColombo (Galle Face Hotel—Regency Wing)143-69%

Being lower in the list increases the probability of a country to have high economic growth.

Conclusion:
Nigeria(Lagos)  has improved  a lot.
South Africa has worsened.
Thailand has gotten a lot more expensive.

Footnotes:

  • If a city has no Four Seasons,the first alternative is Ritz Carlton followed by comparable hotels.
  • Hotels where two Four Seasons are located, the average price was used.
  • Developed markets average based on Four Seasons in the following cities: Chicago, Geneva, Hong Kong, London, Milan, New York, Paris, San Francisco, Singapore, Sydney and Tokyo.

Calculation for Developed Market Average:

CityRate in USD
Paris2395
Milan2252
London1800
Geneva1126
Tokyo934
New York922
Chicago670
Hong Kong670
Singapore575
San Francisco527
Sydney263

I'm just surprised by how cheap Sydney, San Francisco is compared to European Capitals.

I'm available in the comments for q&a.

https://old.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1dxdndk/research_update_statistics_from_book_breakout/

by wiseindian123

1 comment
  1. Russia was also one of the countries mentioned in the index,in the book.
    I have removed it from the table as I’m unable to get updated prices due to sanctions.

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