Why Ukraine’s Victory Could Lead to a New Russian Invasion | Peter Zeihan
oh and it’s not like it’s it’s rare information you can call up your Congress your Congressman gets a weekly briefing of the equipment that goes over so every Congress full information in front of him or her about everything that’s going on where it came from it’s all documented when they use they have to do videos when they use the big stuff to prove that it’s not going on the black market which it’s not uh but if you you’ll still get Congress people who will lie through their teeth about what’s going on even though they have the information literally in their hands and it’s I can’t think of anything that has gone down in the last 30 years that is more in favor of American Security than keeping the ukrainians alive you know let’s just ignore the moral case completely they’re fighting a war with a nuclear power so we don’t have to have a nuclear war this is a win this is not hard I doubt I doubt it okay so in Russian well let me back up in medieval history of which Russian power structures roughly mirrored now um there is always this Pretender to the throne who is supposedly controlled by The Sovereign uh whether it’s the petorian guard or the Janis series or the giras you’ve got this force that is independent of the official structures that reports only to the leader well that is stable and it contributes to the strength of the state until it doesn’t and what happened was it just stopped and so prosan basically uh found himself unable to elicit Putin’s backing to become more powerful and to take over the defense ministry that’s ultimately what he was after and so he decided to take matters into his own hands and he captured a city and made a bid for Moscow in order to force Putin’s hand and he got killed for it big mistake dude yeah no I mean it was an interesting play but let’s remember this guy this guy was a failed caterer he was not the smartest person that Russia had to off he was just one of the more brutal ones is that what it was and Russia doesn’t really favor brains it it favors brutality and uh initiative but in the right areas because you know if you if you choose wrong with your initiative you get killed uh yeah yeah if you’re the minute you piss Putin off um my best understanding from the people that I discuss with and they probably wouldn’t be happy with me phrasing it the way that I am is it’s okay so we had about 60,000 Ukrainian troops uh almost for a year training with NATO on combined arms conflicts so the way that Russia faces a force is they just pulverize the target with artillery and then move in Mass numbers of conscripts and disposable troops to soak up the mines and the ammo and just try to human wave it that’s the Russian strategy that’s how the ukrainians were trained until very recently it was only since the 2014 war that they started actually learning things like small unit combat so what we trained them with after the Crimean conflict was how to operate in small groups no more than 50 where initiative was with the local leaders as opposed to the generals back in Moscow and you know you have to decide what your target is you have to decide how to get that you have to decide how to use different types of equipment and those types of forces prove very successful against this static stated Russian system in the counter offenses last year and that’s what allowed them to with a combination of drones and satellite Recon and good targeting to take back their territories um in detet and in Kiren what we tried to school up the ukrainians on for this year’s counter offensive was combined arms where infantry is working hand and glove with armor which is working hand and glove with artillery which is hand and glove with helicopters which is hand hand and glove with the Air Force the idea that you can have a blitz Creek style attack go anywhere and be mobile about it and hit with everything that you have at your strongest point where they’re weak the problem is that combined arms requires an Air Force and they don’t have one so in their first couple of attempts they they got their asses handed to them because the Russians proved to be able to put down a lot more Minds than anyone ever thought was possible and while the ukrainians were trying stop people okay yeah because you know you got to stop you got to send in the zappers you’ve got to do the what’s it the uh there are also vehicles that do it and the Russians did layer after layer after layer after layer and so the ukrainians would come up against this and maybe break through the first couple of layers but then you’d have a corridor and Russian Artillery would start raining down and since the r the ukrainians didn’t have air support the only way they could fire back was with their own artillery of which they had a lot fewer shells so it I don’t want to say it set them up to fail because that’s not fair uh but we definitely we taught them a good technique but they didn’t have the equipment to execute it at scale so they had some tactical successes but no well the Russians have had a very good year for Harvest so nobody in Russia is going to starve unless it’s a distribution issue uh Ukraine despite having a couple of shitty years uh is still one of the world’s or was one of the world’s largest Agricultural exporters and even without the roughly 2 million square miles of agricultural land that is either Under Siege Rush occupied or mined they still have more than enough to feed themselves what they lack now is a sufficient volume to keep their exports up uh kiev’s probably not the best comparison because it was the most service Le of the Cities economically and so as long as you don’t have a power outage because of an air raid uh I don’t want to say life is going on normally but the restaurants are open people are going to work uh there the economy is more or less functional As you move east and south you’re getting to more Industrial lands so like the cir region which is roughly South that’s the big industrial Heartland that’s where their steel belt is the problem is that uh it gets most of its electricity from that nuclear power plant that you keep hearing about which is shut down uh and it gets most of its coal from areas that are now mined so basically the value at economy the materials value at economy in Ukraine is basically stopped yeah they would do it they just don’t do it exactly they would have no problem doing it uh and if you look at car uh on the northeast it took immense damage in the first year of the war because it was an artillery range uh there’s no best case scenario if the Russians win we get that confrontation with NATO if Ukraine wins though you know again remember there’s if there’s one thing we understand about the Russians is they feel they have to get to the danu and they have to get to the Vista yeah well that means if they get kicked out of Ukraine completely they’re just going to try again and again again as long as they can well they have Crimea they’re not going to let go of Crimea well if the kurch straight bridge is destroyed they will have to right now we don’t have good census information on Crimea because since the first attack on the Kirch Bridge back in what was it about a year ago now um people have been getting out because they like holy [ __ ] the Russians can’t hold the line and you know they’re probably right there’s only three Rail lines into Crimea one is the bridge and that one’s been destroyed the other two go go within Missile Range of the front one goes within artillery range of the front so people if they can get out they’re getting out we don’t know how many people are left in Crimea we also know that it has a turkic minority that is furious at the Russians so you know there’s definitely a fifth column there if it comes to that but if if the kch goes down um completely uh then the Russians will have no choice to evacuate Crimea because they can’t support it they can’t get stuff in uh and it would be a it would be a massacre of a scale we have not yet seen in this war well the Russians would be given the option to surrender and if they didn’t they have no equipment coming in no ammo coming in no fuel coming in and no reinforcements coming in it would be a massacre oh my you know but if Ukraine wins everything doesn’t stop the war just means there’s a pause until the Russians feel they can try again and so if the ukrainians are going to prevent that they have to cross into Russia proper and they have to neutralize a couple of cities that serve as logistical hubs for the war you know that’s the Rost of undon uh you know that’s that’s that matters and all of a sudden now we’re talking about the Russians theoretically using nukes as a defensive weapon I don’t know and I think that anyone who gives you a time frame or for how they think this is going to shake out is just making it up uh so many of our assumptions before the war during the war have been proven wrong and the best we can do is kind of shine a light on when something matters and explain why uh and that’s basic basically what I’ve been doing this year
Why Ukraine’s Victory Could Lead to a New Russian Invasion | Peter Zeihan
In this video, we delve into the intricacies of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and its broader implications. We discuss the role of the U.S. Congress in monitoring military aid, the strategic significance of supporting Ukraine for American security, and the moral and practical dimensions of this ongoing war. The conversation covers historical parallels between Russian and medieval power structures, the internal dynamics of Russian leadership, and the strategic missteps of key figures like Prigozhin.
We also explore the training and tactical evolution of the Ukrainian military, from traditional Soviet-era strategies to modern combined arms tactics supported by NATO. Despite significant challenges, such as a lack of air support and heavily mined territories, the Ukrainian forces have demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability.
Additionally, we address the economic and agricultural impacts of the war on both Ukraine and Russia, highlighting the disruptions in industrial and agricultural production. The discussion extends to the geopolitical stakes of the conflict, including the potential scenarios involving Crimea and the broader regional stability.
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