[OC] UN Prediction for Most Populous Countries (+ EU)
August 19, 2024
[OC] UN Prediction for Most Populous Countries (+ EU)
Posted by petnog
47 comments
I’m once again trying to post this.
Done with the data from the 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects ( [https://population.un.org/wpp/](https://population.un.org/wpp/) ), released this year.
The graph and color scheme was inspired by a similar post made by statista a couple years ago.
These graphs are silly because they’re basically just assuming nothing changes with current trends, but that’s a pretty absurd assumption when looking 76 years out.
China’s predicted decline is BRUTAL.
What is happening in China? Is it really possible their population is going to be less than half by 2100?
African countries population estimates keep decreasing every year. I remember when the prediction was for Africa to surpass Asia with 1 billion people in Nigeria alone.
Who is gonna feed them all?
I would think another country or two would join the EU by then
Can anyone explain 600 million decline in 50 years? That’s absurd
Egypt’s fertility rate has declined from 3 to 2.4 and will decline even further in the coming years. I don’t see them growing that much imo
I’m gonna bet that Pakistan doesn’t grow to 511 million by the end of the century, any one planning on living another 76 years wanna take that?
Philippines just stops existing after 2050
Amazing USA is still increasing its population in 2100s.
China’s two-child policy (2016) – You can only have two children China’s two-child policy (2056) – You MUST have two children
I really don’t understand these predictions most of these countries like Nigeria or Pakistan cannot sustain that large population they don’t have enough arable land to sustain such populations, even if it actually happens it will be a huge mess.
What would the impact on the global economy be of stagnant population?
Can probably already discount Russia’s population even further: 1m+ exodus of young Russians over the last 18 months and 600,000 casualties (so far) due to their invasion of Ukraine.
I have to disagree with the UN about Egypt. They’re out of arable land, a huge importer of food, and highly urbanized already. Birth rates might be high right now, but I don’t think it can continue and people will start leaving, dying, or the government will fall apart.
Love the graphic though!
The tricky thing with a prediction, especially for a year like 2100, is that so much can change in the meantime.
I remember when I was in school everyone was freaking out about overpopulation and predictions of acid-rain covered cities where you had to buy oxygen were commonplace; and that’s only 20, 25 years ago.
If ectogenesis became a commercially available alternative, for example, it could open up parenthood to many couples who are currently unable, or for whom it is restrictively difficult, to have children, and would proportionally impact the developed world more than the developing world.
What’s the story with Brasils decline? Is the reasoning that they will have advanced to a “developed” economy, complete with the declining birth rate normally associated with that?
a little scary how much some countries are expected to grow.
Anyone knows what happens that China loses 50% of its population size between 2050 and 2100? And how is this possibly predicted?
Are they predicting Mexico, Russia and the Philippines annihilate each other in 2050?
Also, what will happen to Japan?
Can you make the same graf for every region/continent?
china is going to be such a nice place to live around 2100
What’s the basis for this prediction? What changes between 2050 amd 2100?
Japan just gonna disappear
What an absolute nonsense! As if in 50 years time the EU will loose 16% of the inhabitants. Not happening. Ridiculous prediction
If we ignore EU, then funny but barely 3-4 (maybe 5) have a strong football team.
Let’s have a look at predictions from 76 years ago and see how absurd they’ve turned out to be 🙂
Pakistan, north India and Egypt will be hit very hard by climate change and I do not see them getting to these population levels.
Mexico, Russia and Philippines 💀
These are demographics that could lead to wars.
Russia ceases to exist after 2050 😂
Ukraine will join EU until 2050 so that’s +30M
People of the world: get fucking!
It’s impossible to predict populations 100 years ahead
Russia is working actively on diminishing those numbers
Anything that far into the future is probably not that accurate. Fun imagining tho
I certainly hope that the population of russia is going to decrease quicker than 9m in 25 years. The sooner this country has no means to exact aggressive actions on it’s neighbors – the better.
You forgot to include climate change and the depletion of fossil fuels reserves to your graph. It’s clearly overshooting what will happen by a handful of billions people.
Crazy that the projection shows Pakistan to have only a 100m fewer people than China by 2100
Nigeria’s oil reserves expected to dry up around 2050.
Climate change may throw some of these figures off
2100 is impossible and pointless to estimate there are shit ton of variables that never existed. We don’t know what will science or nature brings. It is already extremely hard to estimate 5 10 years 75 is impossible.
Very sad to see such trends
this is insanely ugly. Is there a sub for beautiful data representations anywhere?
47 comments
I’m once again trying to post this.
Done with the data from the 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects ( [https://population.un.org/wpp/](https://population.un.org/wpp/) ), released this year.
The graph and color scheme was inspired by a similar post made by statista a couple years ago.
These graphs are silly because they’re basically just assuming nothing changes with current trends, but that’s a pretty absurd assumption when looking 76 years out.
China’s predicted decline is BRUTAL.
What is happening in China? Is it really possible their population is going to be less than half by 2100?
African countries population estimates keep decreasing every year. I remember when the prediction was for Africa to surpass Asia with 1 billion people in Nigeria alone.
Who is gonna feed them all?
I would think another country or two would join the EU by then
Can anyone explain 600 million decline in 50 years? That’s absurd
Egypt’s fertility rate has declined from 3 to 2.4 and will decline even further in the coming years. I don’t see them growing that much imo
I’m gonna bet that Pakistan doesn’t grow to 511 million by the end of the century, any one planning on living another 76 years wanna take that?
Philippines just stops existing after 2050
Amazing USA is still increasing its population in 2100s.
China’s two-child policy (2016) – You can only have two children
China’s two-child policy (2056) – You MUST have two children
I really don’t understand these predictions most of these countries like Nigeria or Pakistan cannot sustain that large population they don’t have enough arable land to sustain such populations, even if it actually happens it will be a huge mess.
What would the impact on the global economy be of stagnant population?
Can probably already discount Russia’s population even further: 1m+ exodus of young Russians over the last 18 months and 600,000 casualties (so far) due to their invasion of Ukraine.
I have to disagree with the UN about Egypt. They’re out of arable land, a huge importer of food, and highly urbanized already. Birth rates might be high right now, but I don’t think it can continue and people will start leaving, dying, or the government will fall apart.
Love the graphic though!
The tricky thing with a prediction, especially for a year like 2100, is that so much can change in the meantime.
I remember when I was in school everyone was freaking out about overpopulation and predictions of acid-rain covered cities where you had to buy oxygen were commonplace; and that’s only 20, 25 years ago.
If ectogenesis became a commercially available alternative, for example, it could open up parenthood to many couples who are currently unable, or for whom it is restrictively difficult, to have children, and would proportionally impact the developed world more than the developing world.
What’s the story with Brasils decline? Is the reasoning that they will have advanced to a “developed” economy, complete with the declining birth rate normally associated with that?
a little scary how much some countries are expected to grow.
Anyone knows what happens that China loses 50% of its population size between 2050 and 2100? And how is this possibly predicted?
Are they predicting Mexico, Russia and the Philippines annihilate each other in 2050?
Also, what will happen to Japan?
Can you make the same graf for every region/continent?
china is going to be such a nice place to live around 2100
What’s the basis for this prediction? What changes between 2050 amd 2100?
Japan just gonna disappear
What an absolute nonsense!
As if in 50 years time the EU will loose 16% of the inhabitants.
Not happening.
Ridiculous prediction
If we ignore EU, then funny but barely 3-4 (maybe 5) have a strong football team.
Let’s have a look at predictions from 76 years ago and see how absurd they’ve turned out to be 🙂
Pakistan, north India and Egypt will be hit very hard by climate change and I do not see them getting to these population levels.
Mexico, Russia and Philippines 💀
These are demographics that could lead to wars.
Russia ceases to exist after 2050 😂
Ukraine will join EU until 2050 so that’s +30M
People of the world: get fucking!
It’s impossible to predict populations 100 years ahead
Russia is working actively on diminishing those numbers
Anything that far into the future is probably not that accurate. Fun imagining tho
I certainly hope that the population of russia is going to decrease quicker than 9m in 25 years. The sooner this country has no means to exact aggressive actions on it’s neighbors – the better.
You forgot to include climate change and the depletion of fossil fuels reserves to your graph. It’s clearly overshooting what will happen by a handful of billions people.
Crazy that the projection shows Pakistan to have only a 100m fewer people than China by 2100
Nigeria’s oil reserves expected to dry up around 2050.
Climate change may throw some of these figures off
2100 is impossible and pointless to estimate there are shit ton of variables that never existed. We don’t know what will science or nature brings. It is already extremely hard to estimate 5 10 years 75 is impossible.
Very sad to see such trends
this is insanely ugly. Is there a sub for beautiful data representations anywhere?