This is my attempt at modeling US and China GDP growth to 2050. I assume that Chinese growth continues to slow year on year as it has for the last 10 years or so, while US growth stays constant. For example, in 2009, Chinese economic GDP/capita growth was 8.2%; in 2019 it was 5.79%. These are part of a long term trend of decreasing growth over the last 15 years or so. It is important to note that the Chinese economy is growing faster than the US! But the Chinese growth rate is slowing while the US growth rate is consistent.
When I attempted to model US growth, it actually seemed to be _increasing_ over that period, but I take that as a statistical artefact and model US growth at a constant 1.72% real economic growth per capita per year.
These figures are then multiplied by population growth projections.
The net effect is that, contrary to many predictions over the last 15 years, China never catches up to US in GDP, and its per capita GDP remains less than half of the US per capita GDP. This is due to two factors: slowing Chinese growth, and shrinking Chinese population.
Y axis should be in trillions not scientific notation, also missing units. Usually projections are dashed lines in the same color as the non projected value. Minor nitpicks but considering it’s a basic line chart, I may as well nit 😉
Can you do something about these colors/the legend? It’s taking waaaay too much mental energy to understand a graph that should be very easy to read. Consider: 1 color for each country, differentiating actual/forecast by shade or dashes, and labeling lines directly, or at least placing the legend at the right in the same order that they appear top bottom and left to right.
The myth about infinite growing.
Now add the real data from 2020 to 2023 and compare them to your prediction
Statistics through 2023 have already been released.
Wouldn’t it be better to model from 2024 onwards?
red is a negative color choice when displaying financial info.
![[OC] Predicted and modeled US and China GDP to 2050](https://www.europesays.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/8j39rgtn1pkd1.png)
8 comments
Original source: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/174UB6AsSXh2iaULFoa-otWRYk3heNZqQEynYuRM0568/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/174UB6AsSXh2iaULFoa-otWRYk3heNZqQEynYuRM0568/edit?usp=sharing)
This is my attempt at modeling US and China GDP growth to 2050. I assume that Chinese growth continues to slow year on year as it has for the last 10 years or so, while US growth stays constant. For example, in 2009, Chinese economic GDP/capita growth was 8.2%; in 2019 it was 5.79%. These are part of a long term trend of decreasing growth over the last 15 years or so. It is important to note that the Chinese economy is growing faster than the US! But the Chinese growth rate is slowing while the US growth rate is consistent.
When I attempted to model US growth, it actually seemed to be _increasing_ over that period, but I take that as a statistical artefact and model US growth at a constant 1.72% real economic growth per capita per year.
These figures are then multiplied by population growth projections.
The net effect is that, contrary to many predictions over the last 15 years, China never catches up to US in GDP, and its per capita GDP remains less than half of the US per capita GDP. This is due to two factors: slowing Chinese growth, and shrinking Chinese population.
Y axis should be in trillions not scientific notation, also missing units. Usually projections are dashed lines in the same color as the non projected value. Minor nitpicks but considering it’s a basic line chart, I may as well nit 😉
Can you do something about these colors/the legend? It’s taking waaaay too much mental energy to understand a graph that should be very easy to read. Consider: 1 color for each country, differentiating actual/forecast by shade or dashes, and labeling lines directly, or at least placing the legend at the right in the same order that they appear top bottom and left to right.
The myth about infinite growing.
Now add the real data from 2020 to 2023 and compare them to your prediction
Statistics through 2023 have already been released.
Wouldn’t it be better to model from 2024 onwards?
red is a negative color choice when displaying financial info.
Curiously, China population started to shrink in 2022. [China is forecasted to be at 1.3B people in 2050. By 2100, only 770M.](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chinas-population-could-shrink-to-half-by-2100/#:~:text=China's%20population%20began%20shrinking%20in,looming%20crisis%20are%20growing%20louder)